MODAL-SHIFT STRATEGY FOR MITIGATING ROAD TRAFFIC CONGESTION IN NAIROBI: A STUDY OF THE NAIROBI- SYOKIMAU COMMUTER RAIL CORRIDOR BY LINDA ONGUKA Reg. no. W50/68693/2013 A PROJECT REPORT SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT FOR THE AWARD OF MASTER OF URBAN MANAGEMENT DEGREE IN THE DEPARTMENT OF ARCHITECTURE IN THE UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI SCHOOL OF BUILT ENVIRONMENT, UNIVERSITY OF NAIROBI NOVEMBER, 2018 DECLARATION This project report is my original work and has not been presented for the award of a degree in any other university. Every effort has been made to clearly indicate the contributions of others involved and literature referenced. This work has been done under the guidance of Dr. Owiti K’Akumu and Dr. Samuel Obiero at the Department of Architecture, University of Nairobi. …………………………………… ……………………………. Candidate’s signature Date This project report has been presented for approval with my/our knowledge as university supervisor(s) …………………………………… ……………………………… Supervisor’s signature- Dr Owiti K’Akumu Date …………………………………… ……………………………… Supervisor’s signature- Dr Samuel Obiero Date ii LIST OF ACRONYMS BUPT Bombay Urban Transport Project CBD Central Business District CCTV Closed Circuit Television EARC East Africa Railways Corporation KNBS Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KRC Kenya Railways Corporation MRVC Mumbai Railway Vikas Corporation MUTP Mumbai Urban Transport Project NACOSTI National Commission for Science, Technology and Innovation NIUPLAN Nairobi Integrated Urban Development Masterplan NCR Nairobi Commuter Rail RVR Rift Valley Railways SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences USA United States of America WEH Western Express Highway iii ABSTRACT Kenya aspires to become a prosperous industrializing middle income country (Kenya Vision 2030) and for this vision to be realized, efficient transport infrastructure and services must be developed. A properly planned and efficiently operated urban rail transit system holds the promise of making an immense economic contribution to this vision. The fiscal cost of traffic jams in Nairobi and its environs is estimated at Kshs. 57 million per day, taking into consideration the cost of additional time spent on travel due to congestion. This poses a continuing challenge to the achievement of the country’s vision. A mass transit system through commuter rail service is increasingly appealing as a solution to this problem. However, despite numerous studies indicating overwhelming demand for convenient, efficient and decent commuter rail services within the Nairobi metropolitan region (Wahome, 2013), post-commissioning anecdotal evidence on the newly commissioned Nairobi- Syokimau route reveals continued low utilization of rail transport as a mode choice. This study sought to apply travel demand theory to comprehensively analyze factors underpinning the low utilization of Nairobi Commuter Rail services as a travel mode choice following the recent development and upgrading of the urban rail transit system. The study was conducted within the catchment areas of the three newly built railway stations along the Nairobi- Syokimau corridor. These are: Syokimau, Imara Daima and Makadara Railway Stations. Descriptive research design was used. Collection of data was done through survey technique and analyzed using Chi- square, Spearman’s correlation and linear regression techniques as well as Mann Whitney U-test. The data was presented in appropriate figures and tables. Results showed that money cost savings and journey time had a direct influence on utilization of NCR. Distance to train station was inversely related to utilization of the NCR as a mode choice. Factors like typical daily activities were influential in determining demand for NCR as the utility of the train service was evaluated against the need to fulfill other household or recreational needs. Perceived image of rail transit system had a direct influence on the utilization of NCR. Service quality features of importance to commuters included less crowding and having a seat. Socio-demographic factors had no influence on the utilization of NCR. It was recommended that KRC should increase the frequency of trips of its rolling stock and review its schedules. KRC should address the problem of poor perceived service quality especially targeting private car owners through a concerted public relations campaign and image management tactics focusing on the benefits of NCR iv to commuters. Furthermore, KRC should consider offering incentives to motorists and groups such as employers to encourage them to utilize NCR. Providing feeder services will increase ease of access as well as convenience for commuters thereby serving to increase patronage of the commuter train service. Traction technology should be introduced in the long term to increase train speeds and passenger capacity. KRC should take measures to attract strategic investors who can set up recreational, entertainment and shopping malls in both beginning and destination stations. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to acknowledge the support, prayers and encouragement of my husband Moses Olela and children Oliver and Hera; as well as the entire Onguka family especially Marion who provided academic assistance and inspiration to go further with this work. I would like to extend my gratitude to my supervisors for their valuable opinion and academic support throughout the project report. I am also grateful to the Department of Architecture for according me the opportunity to defend this work. vi TABLE OF CONTENT DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ii LIST OF ACRONYMS ................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………...iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT……………………………………………………………....vi LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................... xii LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Background Information .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Statement ................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research Questions .................................................................................................. 6 1.4 Objectives 6 1.5 Hypothesis 7 1.6 Justification of the Study 7 1.7 Scope ........................................................................................................................ 7 1.8 Location of the Study ............................................................................................... 8 1.9 Expected Solution .................................................................................................. 10 1.10 Structure of the Report ........................................................................................... 11 1.11 Definition of Terms ................................................................................................ 12 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................... 14 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 14 2.2 Urbanization ........................................................................................................... 14 2.3 Mode Choice Selection in Urban Areas 16 2.3.1 Modal Shift 18 2.4 Travel Demand Factors and Characteristics .......................................................... 16 2.4.1 The Influence of Generalized Cost of Commuter Rail as a Mode Choice……..19 2.4.2 The Influence of Perceived Image of Rail Transit System……….……………21 2.4.3 The Influence of Socio- demographic Factors….……………………………...22 2.4.4 The Influence of Type of Activity 23 vii 2.5 Travel Demand Modeling Theories ....................................................................... 23 2.5.1 Utility Maximization Theory .............................................................................. 23 2.5.2 Activity- Based Models 25 2.6 Evolution of Public Passenger Transport in Nairobi 26 2.6.1 Public Passenger Transport in Nairobi 28 2.7 Rail Transport Overview ........................................................................................ 28 2.8 Rail System in Kenya ............................................................................................. 31 2.8.1 Commuter Rail in Nairobi……….……………………………………………..33 2.8.2 The Standard Gauge Railway………………………….……………………….35 2.9 Case Study Review ................................................................................................ 37 2.9.1 Case Study: India 37 2.10 Conceptual Framework .......................................................................................... 42 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .............................................. 45 3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………....…………………45 3.2 Research Design ..................................................................................................... 45 3.3 Population .............................................................................................................. 45 3.4 Sampling Design .................................................................................................... 46