Gateway Associates Will it ever be time for TEA? (Thames Estuary Airport) Will it ever be time for TEA? A survey of key influencers and decision makers from all sides of the debate on proposals to build a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary January 2013 January 2013 Will it ever be time for TEA? This report represents the first independent look at what private, public, local, national and international stakeholders think about the proposals for building a new hub airport in the Thames Estuary. It has been conducted independently of Government, the aviation industry and construction industries. It was not commissioned by supporters or opponents although individuals from both sides of the debate have responded. No one was paid to respond to this survey. © Gateway Associates 2013 Contributors Contents Paul Clark Section Page Paul set up Gateway Associates in 2010 to ensure the knowledge, Contributors 1 influence and networks he had built up over his 13 years in Government Office could be put to use by organisations with Executive Summary 6 political interests. During his time in Parliamentary office he held a number of notable posts, which saw him conducting behind-the- scenes negotiations for major policy changes and regeneration Survey question responses 8 projects. Significantly, Paul held the post of Transport Minister from 2009–10, with specific responsibility for aviation, shipping, ports, maritime safety and road safety. He also spent two years Recommendations 50 as HMG Treasury Whip. Acknowledgements 48 Glossary of acronyms, terms and titles 58 Katrina Krishnan Doyle Further reading references 62 Katrina has advised central government departments and major international organisations for nearly fifteen years. During her time as acting Head of Thames Gateway Marketing and Communications she devised the cross government and regional engagement strategy, which was later cited by the Office of Government Commerce as an example of best practice in government communications. Katrina also runs her own professional associate network through her company, Tarakin Ltd, which advised HS2 Ltd in 2009 on how it should introduce a proactive cross-government communications programme. Rob Sibley Rob has worked on the development of London’s main airports, Disclaimer including terminals, runways, infrastructure and supporting rail links for more than 25 years. Most recently he was Head Gateway Associates takes no responsibility for the validity of the statistics and opinions given by of Strategic Planning and Policy at Gatwick Airport. He has respondents to this survey. Minor spelling and grammatical changes have been made to some of the also advised the European Investment Bank and spent time quotes where it was deemed necessary and extracts have been taken from responses that were too in Hong Kong, the Asia-Pacific region and in Europe exploring lengthy to feature in full. For some of the later questions in the survey, when respondents referred opportunities for the investment in and the operation of foreign back to previous answers given in previous questions, the contributors made a judgement as to airports. Rob is passionate about understanding local community which question the response should be listed under. This was done to avoid duplication and ensure concerns, developing mitigation proposals and balancing these that as many of the responses given were included within the report. with the economic benefits of new transport infrastructure. 2 Executive Summary In addition, given the amount of time and investment that has gone into what is essentially a privately funded aviation industry, a notable number of respondents are also keen to know how existing airports and local aviation communities will be financially compensated if a Thames Estuary Airport were to be introduced. The UK Coalition Government has to act quickly if it wishes to prevent the country’s aviation A review of the country’s aviation capacity needs was also called for, with some believing that industry and UK Plc from being grounded by competitor markets in Europe. demand estimates are out of date and should be revisited prior to a decision being made. As such, a transparent decision making criteria and evidence management process would be welcomed. A primary concern of the influential opinion leaders interviewed for thisGateway Associates Many feel that this kind of framework would give them the reassurance that their submissions are clean question survey was that a strategy for London Heathrow might be considered separately being processed responsibly. from the decisions about a central aviation hub strategy. Many feel that if Heathrow is not included in the Davies Commission’s analysis then work will need to be re-done in future to Having captured the views of some of the most influential people in the UK on this subject, rectify the omission, by which time the UK will have lost its aviation advantage to newer and Gateway Associates is able to present the landscape of opinion within this report. It also sets out larger hub airports in Europe. six specific recommendations to politicians and officials in Government detailing the steps that need to be taken to ensure a decision can be reached quickly and that money and time are not In fact, the current plan to deliver the Davies Commission’s report after the 2015 general election wasted as a result of delays. is thought by some to be timed for political rather than economic or social advantage. As such, key stakeholders from public, private and community organisations, supporters and opponents The recommendations are listed below and explained in detail in the second part of the report: alike, believe the deadline for reaching a decision should be brought forward significantly and well in advance of the next general election. Do not ignore Heathrow Get to the decision sooner Procrastination will not only have a detrimental effect on Heathrow and UK Plc’s ability to compete in international markets. There will also be a negative impact on communities in the Align policies across Whitehall Thames Estuary and those around London and regional UK airports while everyone is left waiting Find your customer in advance on tenterhooks for a decision to be made. Publish the decision making criteria Many of respondents stress the importance of investment and regeneration in the Thames Be upfront about funding and compensation Gateway area, which is lacking strategic direction. Whether it is an airport or a new kind of In total, 67 key influencers were interviewed and their names and positions are listed in the Disneyland, the area to the east of London needs a regenerative point of focus. However, the Acknowledgements section. associated property blight, environmental issues and climate change implications arising from a Thames Estuary Airport are considered non-sensical for those who fear that Boris Island-style We are grateful to all those who completed the survey and spoke to us throughout the process. proposal may have wings. In fact, most do not see an estuary airport as being compatible with existing economic, transport or environmental policies at all. In addition, many also fear the Government’s economic focus Paul Clark, Katrina Krishnan Doyle & Rob Sibley will mean that the environment and climate change will be side-lined or ignored completely Gateway Associates Ltd when it comes to making the eventual decision. Of these respondents, most find comfort in EU Habitat Legislation that has prevented previous schemes from being approved. However, they also know that if the political will for a Thames Estuary Airport is strong enough and those in power believe that the economic gains outweigh the losses, then efforts may be made to bypass European laws. This in turn would put many other protected sites across the UK in danger. The Department for Transport’s reluctance to engage with other Government Departments on aviation, or other policies, is thought to be one of the obstacles faced by those trying to have a holistic debate. There will be housing, employment and environmental implications, regardless of whether or not a Thames Estuary Airport comes into being. Many suggest input from across Whitehall should be an essential part of the decision making process. 4 The Survey Questions Q1. Does the UK need to increase its airport capacity in the Greater South East of England (GSE)? Q2. Why do you think previous Thames Estuary Airport proposals have not been accepted? Q3. Approximately how far from a Thames Estuary Airport would residents and business be impacted? Q4. What do you consider to be the advantages of building a Thames Estuary Airport? Q5. What do you consider to be the disadvantages of building a Thames Estuary Airport? Q6. How long will it take to realise the full impact of a new Thames Estuary Airport? Q7. What risks need to be managed if a hub airport is built in the Thames Estuary? Q8. Which groups will benefit most from the introduction of a Thames Estuary Airport? Survey Questions and Q9. Which groups will suffer most from the introduction of a Thames Estuary Airport? Q10. Does a Thames Estuary Airport fit within the Government’s wider Responses transport strategy? Q11. How would a new Thames Estuary Airport affect other airports in the Greater South East? Q12. Does a Thames Estuary Airport complement the Government’s wider economic strategy? Q13. Will a Thames Estuary Airport serve organisations relocating to the Midlands and North of England? Q14. Does a Thames Estuary Airport complement the Government’s environmental ambitions? Q15. Will the UK’s flood defences be affected by the introduction of a Thames Estuary Airport? Q16. Does this proposal adequately mitigate against loss of valuable green space? Q17. Does a Thames Estuary Airport complement local and regional regeneration strategies? Q18. Can the Greater South East’s infrastructure absorb the increase in demand a new airport will create? Q19.