PETER SHAVER The Rise of Science From Prehistory to the Far Future The Rise of Science Peter Shaver The Rise of Science From Prehistory to the Far Future Peter Shaver Sydney, Australia ISBN 978-3-319-91811-2 ISBN 978-3-319-91812-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-91812-9 Library of Congress Control Number: 2018943455 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: The iconic “Earthrise” photo taken on 24 December 1968 by the crew of the Apollo 8 spacecraft as they orbited the Moon (seen in the foreground). Photo Credit: NASA. Image Science and Analysis Laboratory, NASA-Johnson Space Center Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To Iggy, Max, Lulu and Josie Preface A knowledge of the natural and physical world is essential for all of us. Like other animals we are born with senses and instincts, but we have no direct knowledge of the world. It is only when we are born that we can begin to experience and know the world around us. This is urgent and vital for our survival. It is why infants have sometimes been referred to as ‘young scientists’ and ‘learning machines’. They have to learn about the world rapidly in order to be able to cope with it. Curiosity plays a huge role in this process. After several years they have developed intuition and common sense about the world and have learned enough to be able to survive in it. But some individuals never lose their childhood curiosity and have taken the quest for knowledge far beyond what is required for mere survival. These are the scientists who ask deep questions and systematically explore every niche out of pure curiosity about the world and our place in it. This search for knowledge has gone to extremes over the last few centuries, including the early universe, the atom and the very basis of life itself. The body of scientific knowledge that has been acquired is one of humanity’s greatest achievements and a cherished part of our culture. In addition, this knowledge has given us great power, leading to the high living standards that we enjoy today. The story of how science originated and developed over the centuries is a fascinating one. Its origin was perhaps improbable, and it actually disappeared a few times over its history, but in the last few centuries its growth has been spectacular and exponential. This book follows this remarkable story, explores many intriguing aspects of science, considers its place in modern society and reflects on its future and how it may further change the world. I am grateful to many people for their encouragement, advice and knowl- edge provided over the four years I took to write this book. I would especially vii viii Preface like to thank Ron Ekers (CSIRO Astronomy & Space Science, Sydney), Ryszard Maleska (Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra) and Steve Simpson (Charles Perkins Centre, University of Sydney) for having taken the time for lengthy discussions with me on several of the topics in this book and for their opinions and other information. As always, my wife Jenefer read over drafts of the book, and we had many wonderful conversations about the subjects of the day over dinner. Several colleagues and friends generously took the time to comment on advanced drafts of the book. In particular, Gordon Robertson (University of Sydney) read through a draft of the book thoroughly, making copious com- ments and suggestions and raising several thought-provoking issues. Richard Schilizzi (University of Manchester), Elizabeth Jeffreys (Exeter College, Oxford), Dominic O’Meara (University of Freiburg) and Anne Tihon (Université Catholique de Louvain) provided helpful input concerning the demise of Greek and Byzantine natural philosophy. Martin Harwit (Cornell University), Ken Kellermann (U.S. National Radio Astronomy Observatory), Ted Brown (Visiting Professor at the University of Sydney and Director (Emeritus), NYS Institute for Basic Research), Neville Chalkley, Russell Stewart and David Woodruff also gave helpful comments, and I would like to thank them all for their input. Access to the latest scientific publications in all fields was facilitated through an Honorary Associateship kindly granted to me by the School of Physics, Faculty of Science, the University of Sydney. My editor at Springer, Ramon Khanna, was very supportive and gave me several helpful suggestions to improve and balance the book. I am most grateful both for his generous input and for his guidance throughout the publishing process. I must certainly acknowledge that the Internet has been essential in putting this book together—countless websites covering almost all conceivable topics for inspiration, information and cross-checking. To say that these have ‘supplemented’ my very substantial library of books and discussions with colleagues would be a gross understatement. I don’t think I could have written this book 20 years ago. Sydney, Australia Peter Shaver June 2018 Contents 1 Introduction ........................................ 1 2 A Brief History ...................................... 5 2.1 Out of the Mists of Time .......................... 5 2.2 The Early Civilizations . 8 2.3 The ‘Greek Miracle’ .............................. 11 2.4 In Transit ...................................... 21 2.5 Islamic Science . ............................ 23 2.6 Medieval Science . ............................ 27 2.7 The Scientific Revolution . 30 2.8 The Very Large . 39 2.9 The Very Small . 55 2.10 Light ......................................... 66 2.11 Life Itself ...................................... 70 2.12 Our Evolving Perspectives . ........................ 83 3 Roads to Knowledge .................................. 89 3.1 Curiosity ...................................... 92 3.2 Imagination . 94 3.3 Determination . 95 3.4 Solitude and Teamwork . .......................... 100 3.5 Connections .................................... 102 3.6 Cross-Pollination ................................ 103 3.7 Timing ........................................ 104 3.8 Active and Passive Science . 105 3.9 Falsification and Verification ........................ 108 ix x Contents 3.10 Bandwagons and Paradigms . 111 3.11 Mistakes . 114 3.12 False Positives . 116 3.13 Disagreements . 119 3.14 Serendipity . ................................... 121 3.15 The Essence of It All . 125 4 Science Today ....................................... 129 4.1 Exponential Growth .............................. 129 4.2 Curiosity-Driven vs. Goal-Oriented Research ........... 132 4.3 Big and Small Science ............................. 136 4.4 The Support of Science . 142 4.5 International Collaborations ........................ 144 4.6 Science in Everything ............................. 146 4.7 Science and Society . 166 4.8 The Powers and Perils of Science .................... 176 4.9 Our Global Impact ............................... 183 4.10 Science and the Philosophy of Science . 192 4.11 Science and Religion . 196 4.12 The Massively Interdependent World . 207 5 Into the Future ...................................... 211 5.1 Will the Current Pace of Science Continue? ............ 211 5.2 Will We Ever Go Backwards (Again)? ................. 213 5.3 What Remains to Be Discovered? . ................... 218 5.4 Can Science Ever Be Complete? . 227 5.5 The Long View . 232 Epilogue ............................................... 241 Further Reading ........................................ 243 Subject Index ........................................... 255 Name Index ............................................ 273 1 Introduction Modern science and technology have given us knowledge and living standards far beyond the wildest expectations of our ancestors who lived only a few lifetimes ago. Just a few lifetimes ago (using as a timescale our modern lifespan of 80 years, a tiny fraction of our existence as a species), our ancestors had no idea what matter is made of, how life works, or what lies beyond our solar system and the nearest stars. Electricity was just a curiosity and the atom was just speculation. Now we know about the atom and its constituents, we understand the basis of