2011 TTS VERSION 1.0 DATA EXPANSION & VALIDATION TRANSPORTATION TOMORROW SURVEY 2011 A Telephone Interview Survey on Household Travel Behaviour in Greater Toronto and the Surrounding Areas Conducted in the Fall of 2011 and 2012 VERSION 1.0 DATA EXPANSION & VALIDATION Prepared for the Transportation Information Steering Committee by the Data Management Group Department of Civil Engineering University of Toronto October 2013 Participating Agencies: Ministry of Transportation, Ontario City of Barrie City of Brantford City of Guelph City of Hamilton City of Kawartha Lakes City of Orillia City of Peterborough City of Toronto County of Brant County of Dufferin County of Peterborough County of Simcoe County of Wellington Metrolinx Regional Municipality of Durham Regional Municipality of Halton Regional Municipality of Niagara Regional Municipality of Peel Regional Municipality of Waterloo Regional Municipality of York Toronto Transit Commission Town of Orangeville Table of Contents Summary ......................................................................................................................... 1 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 3 2 Potential Sources of Error and Bias .......................................................................... 4 2.1 Sample Frame ................................................................................................................... 4 2.2 Timing of Sample Selection .............................................................................................. 4 2.3 Bias Due to Non Response ............................................................................................... 5 2.4 Under Reporting of Trips ................................................................................................... 5 2.5 Incorrect Information ......................................................................................................... 5 3 Data Expansion ........................................................................................................ 6 3.1 Expansion by postal area .................................................................................................. 6 3.2 Age adjustment factors ..................................................................................................... 6 4 Data Validation ......................................................................................................... 8 4.1 Dwelling Units and Population .......................................................................................... 8 4.2 Age and Gender .............................................................................................................. 12 4.3 Employed Labour Force .................................................................................................. 15 4.4 School Enrolment ............................................................................................................ 18 4.5 Traffic Volumes ............................................................................................................... 22 4.6 Municipal Transit Ridership ............................................................................................. 26 4.7 GO Transit Ridership ...................................................................................................... 47 2 Table of Exhibits Exhibit 1: Age Adjustment Factor .................................................................................................... 7 Exhibit 2: Comparison of Expanded Totals by Municipality ............................................................ 9 Exhibit 3: Type of Dwelling Unit ..................................................................................................... 12 Exhibit 4: Female Age Distribution ................................................................................................ 13 Exhibit 5: Male Age Distribution ..................................................................................................... 13 Exhibit 6: Mean Sample Rate by Age and Gender ........................................................................ 14 Exhibit 7: Employed Labour Force ................................................................................................ 15 Exhibit 8: University Enrolment ...................................................................................................... 19 Exhibit 9: Community College Enrolment ...................................................................................... 20 Exhibit 10: A.M. Peak Period Traffic Volumes – Peak Direction ................................................... 23 Exhibit 11: A.M. Peak Period Traffic Volumes – Reverse Direction .............................................. 23 Exhibit 12: A.M. Peak Period Traffic Volumes ............................................................................... 24 Exhibit 13: 13 Hour Traffic Volumes .............................................................................................. 24 Exhibit 14: 13 Hour Traffic Volumes .............................................................................................. 25 Exhibit 15: TTC Boardings ............................................................................................................. 28 Exhibit 16: Durham Region Transit Boardings .............................................................................. 33 Exhibit 17: York Region Transit Boardings .................................................................................... 35 Exhibit 18: Mississauga Transit Boardings .................................................................................... 38 Exhibit 19: Brampton Transit Boardings ........................................................................................ 41 Exhibit 20: Oakville Transit Boardings ........................................................................................... 42 Exhibit 21: Hamilton Transit Boardings ......................................................................................... 43 Exhibit 22: Grand River Transit Boardings .................................................................................... 44 Exhibit 23: Brantford Transit Boardings ......................................................................................... 46 Exhibit 24: GO Rail Daily Boardings .............................................................................................. 47 Exhibit 25: GO Bus Daily Ridership ............................................................................................... 48 Exhibit 26: Summary of Boarding/Ridership Comparisons ........................................................... 48 Appendix A - Expansion Factors by Postal Area ........................................................................... 49 Appendix B - Age Adjustment Factors by Municipality .................................................................. 64 2011 TTS Version 1.0 Data Expansion & Validation Summary Population Population counts by age from the 2011 census were used as control totals for the purpose of expanding the 2011 TTS data to represent the total population of the survey area. Therefore there is a precise match in population totals between the census and TTS at the municipal level. However, the TTS data were collected in the fall of 2011 and fall of 2012 whereas the census data applies to the census day – May 10th 2011. This difference in timing is most likely to affect those involved in post secondary education, many of whom will have been recorded in the Census at their permanent home location instead of where they live when they are at school. Previous TTS were expanded on the basis of dwelling unit counts and under represented the census population by between 2% and 3%. The under representation was due, in a large part, to the exclusion of institutions (Prisons, Hospitals, Nursing homes etc.) from the census dwelling unit counts. Institutional residents are, however, included in the Census population numbers. These factors and the difference in expansion procedure relative to previous TTS, need to be taken into account when using the TTS data for demographic purposes, particularly when making time series comparisons. Dwelling Units Because the 2011 TTS data has been expanded on the basis of age specific population there is not a single unique expansion factor that can be applied to each household. The summary statistics in this report have been generated using the mean expansion for the persons that make up each household. The use of the mean value gives household statistics that are consistent with any person or trip tabulations based on complete households. It is not valid for tabulation of partial household data (i.e. the number of employed persons, students or licensed drivers). This method of calculation gives an expanded household total for the survey area as a whole that is an almost match (-0.2%) with the census dwelling unit count. At the funding agency level the difference in dwelling unit totals between the TTS and Census is less than 5% with the exception of Dufferin County (+6.1%). Differences in distribution at the municipal level can largely be attributed to the difference in timing of the TTS relative to the census. Previous TTS, expanded on the basis of dwelling units, generally over represented the population in areas with universities and post secondary