DOCUMENT RESUME ED 261 643 IR 011 789 TITLE Information Technology R&D: Critical Trends and Issues. INSTITUTION Congress of the U.S., Washington, D.C. Office of Technology Assessment. REPORT NO OTA-CIT-268 PUB DATE Feb 85 NOTE 349p. AVAILABLE FROMSuperintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402. PUB TYPE Information Analyses (070) -- Viewpoints (120) -- Reports - Research/Technical (143) EDRS PRICE MF01/PC14 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS *Artificial Intelligence; Case Studies; *Computers; Foreign Countries; Information Networks; Information Science; *Research and Development; Research Projects; *Scientific Research; Technological Advancement; *Telecommunications IDENTIFIERS *Computer Architecture; *Fiber Optics; Software Engineering; United States ABSTRACT This Office of Technology Assessment report on the current state of research and development in the telecommunications industry in the United States examines four specific areas of research as case studies: computer architecture, artificial intelligence, fiber optics, and software engineering. It discusses the structure and orientation osome selected foreign programs as they challenge traditional U.S. 'market leadership in some areas of computers and communications. Fihally, it examines a set of issues that were raised in the course ok the study: manpower, institutional change, the new research organizations that grew out of Bell Laboratories, and the implications of trends in overall science and technology policy. Following an introduction and summary of the report, individual chapters address the following topics: (1) the environment for research and development in information technology in the United States; (2) selected case studies in information technology research and development; (3) effects of deregulation and divestiture on research; (4) education and human resources for research and development; (5) new roles for universities in information technology research and development; (6) foreign information technology research and development; (7) information technology research and development in the context of U.S. science and technology policy; and (8) technology and industry. (JB) *********************************************************************** Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the original document. *********************************************************************** INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY R&D p A IA U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF EDUCATION EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER IERICI XThis document has been reproduced as receryed from the person or organisation originating It CI Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction quality. Points of view or opinions stated in this docu ment do not necessanly represent office) NIE position or policy. 11111" .4%.1 _.1 BEST COPY AVAILABLE .8 1111oN,,t OThce of Technology A sssss menl Office of Technology Assessment Congressional Board of the 99th Congress TED STEVENS, Alaska, Chairman MORRIS K. UDALL, Arizona, Vice Chairman Senate House ORR1N G. HATCH GEORGE E. BROWN, JR. Utah California CHARLES McC. MATHIAS, JR. JOHN D. DINGELL Maryland Michigan EDWARD M. KENNEDY CLARENCE E. MILLER Massachusetts Ohio ERNEST F. HOLLINGS COOPER EVANS South Carolina Iowa CLAIBORNE PELL Rhode Island Vacant JOHN H. GIBBONS (Nonvoting) Advisory Council WILLIAM J. PERRY, Chairman CLAIRE T. DEDRICK CARL N. HODGES Hambrecht & Quist California Land Commission University of Arizona DAVID S. POTTER, Vice Chairman JAMES C. FLETCHER C"ARLES N. KIMBALL General Motors Corp. University of Pittsburgh Midwest Research Institute EARL BEISTLINE S. DAVID FREEMAN RACHEL McCULLOUCH University of Alaska Consultant University of Wisconsin CHARLES A. BOWSHER GILBERT GUDE LEWIS THOMAS General Accounting Office Congressional Research Service Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center Director JOHN H. GIBBONS _ The Technology Assessment Board approves the release of ;.his report. The viewsexpressin this repurt are not necessarily those of the Board, OTA Advisory Council, or of individual members thereof. Photo on the cover: Simulat ion of the electrical potential field of a generalized molecule on a Cray -1 supercomputer. (Photo credit: Melvin Prueitt., Los Alamos National Laboratory) 3 I__ INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY R&D CRITICAL. TRENDS AND ISSUES OTA Reports are the principal doomentation of formal assessment projects. These projects are approsed in achance by the Technology Assessment Board. At the con- clusion of a project, the Board has the opportunity to.revim the report, but its release does not necessarily imply endorsement of the rPsults by the Board or its indo, lanai members. OTA-CIT-268 FEBRUARY 1985 CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES M of Technology Assoismenl 4 Recommended Citation: Information Technology and R&D: Critical Trends and Issues (Washington, DC. U.S. Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, OTACIT268, February 1985. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 84-601150 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402 Foreword New computer and communications technologies are obviously transforming American life. They are the basis of many of the changes in our telecommunica- tions system and also a new wave of automation on the farm, in manufacturing and transportation, and in the office. They are changing the form and delivery of government services such as education and the judicial system. Information products and sem, ices have become a major and still rapidly growing component of our economy. A strong U.S. research and development effort has, in the past, been the source of much of this new technology. However, recent events, such as the restructur- ing of the U.S. telecommunications industry and the emergence of strong foreign competition for some technologies, have changed the environment for R&D. Con- sequently, the House Committee on Science and Technology, the House Commit- tee on Energy and Commerce, and its Subcommittee on Telecommunications, Con- sumer Protection, and Finance asked OTA to conduct an assessment of the current state of R&D in these critical areas. In this report, OTA examines four specific areas of research as case studies: computer architecture, artificial intelligence, fiber optics, and software engineer- ing. It discusses the structure and orientation of some selected foreign programs. Finally, it examines a set of issues that have been raised in the course of the study. manpower, institutional change, the new research organizations that grew out of Bell Laboratories, and implications of trends in overall science and technology policy. Information technology research and development in the United States is a remarkably adaptable system important changes may already be taking place in funding patterns, institutional structures, manpower development, and gov- ernment policies. Hence, the policy issues for Congress are not so much to stimu- late change as to remove barriers to productive change, and to monitor and main- tain the health of the R&D enterprise in a time of rapid change in an industry so central to our national economy and security. OTA gratefully acknowledges the contributions of the many experts, within and outside the Government, who served as panelists, consultants, contractors, and reviewers of this document. As with all OTA reports, however, the content is the responsibility of OTA and does not necessarily constitute the consensus or endorsement of the advisory panel or the Technology AssessmentBoard. 1\----)JOHN H. GIBBONS Director OTA Information Technology Research and DevelopmentProject Staff John Andelin, Assistant Director, OTA Science. Information and Natural Resources Division Fred W. Weingarten, Communication and Information Technologies Program Manager Project Staff Donna L. Valtri, Project Director' Fred W. Weingarten, Project Director' Chuck Wilk, Senior Analyst Linda G. Roberts, Senior Analyst Linda Garcia, Analyst M. Karen Gamble, Analyst Prudence S. Adler, Analyst Jim Dray, Research Analyst Earl Dowdy, Research Analyst Lauren Ackerman, Research Analyst John Williams' Peg Kay' Administrative Staff Elizabeth A. Emanuel, Administrative Assistant Shirley Gayheart, Secretary Jennifer Nelson, Secretary Marsha Williams, Secretary Renee S. Lloyd, SecrPt>ry Contractors Myles Boylan J. F. Coates, Inc. Barbara Davies Russell Drew Sidney Fernbach Michael Goetz Stan Liebowitz Abbe Mowshowitz Larry Olson Bruce Owen John Young 'Project Director from November 1982 to December 1983 'Acting Project Director from December 1983 'Detailee from the Federal Communications Commission from October 1982to October 1983 'Detailee from the National Bureau of Standards, May 1984 IV 7 Information Technology Research and Development Advisory Panel ri;i1} Roger G. Noll, Chairman Professor of Economics, Stanford University Geneva Belford Donald McCoy Department of Computer Science Vice President and General Manager University of Illinois CBS Technology Center Steven Bisset Ithiel de sola Pool* President Professor of Political Science Megatest, Inc. Massachusetts Institute of Technology John E. Bryson Paul E. Ritt, Jr. Morrison & Foerster Vice President and Director of Research GTE Laboratories, Inc. NandiKishore M. Chitre Director Larry W. Sumney Systems Planning Division Executive Director INTELSAT Semiconductor Research Corp. Ralph E. Gomory Victor Vyssotsky Vice President and Director of Research Executive Director IBM Corp. Research, Information Sciences Thomas J. Watson