UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIEROS DE CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS USER PROFILES AND ADOPTION ATTRIBUTES OF INNOVATIVE BIKE-SHARING SYSTEMS: THE CASE OF BICIMAD (MADRID) TESIS DOCTORAL ANDRÁS CSABA MUNKÁCSY Máster en Ciencias Económicas 2017 DEPARTAMENTO DE INGENIERÍA CIVIL: TRANSPORTE Y TERRITORIO ESCUELA TÉCNICA SUPERIOR DE INGENIEROS DE CAMINOS, CANALES Y PUERTOS USER PROFILES AND ADOPTION ATTRIBUTES OF INNOVATIVE BIKE-SHARING SYSTEMS: THE CASE OF BICIMAD (MADRID) ANDRÁS CSABA MUNKÁCSY Máster en Ciencias Económicas Director de tesis: ANDRÉS MONZÓN DE CÁCERES Doctor Ingeniero de Caminos, Canales y Puertos 2017 Tribunal nombrado por el Mgfco. y Excmo. Sr. Rector de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, el día 18 de julio de 2017. Presidente: D. Javier Gutiérrez Puebla, Catedrático de Universidad Facultad de Geografía e Historia – Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) Vocal: D. David Lois García, Profesor Ayudante Doctor Facultad de Psicología – Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED) Vocal: D. Álvaro Fernández Heredia, Profesor Adjunto Escuela de Arquitectura, Ingeniería y Diseño – Universidad Europea de Madrid Vocal: Dña. Sigal Kaplan, Associate Professor Department of Transport – Technion – Israel Institute of Technology Secretario: Dña. María Eugenia López Lambas, Profesora Contrada Doctora ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos – Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) Suplente: D. Julio Alberto Soria Lara, Profesor Ayudante Doctor ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos – Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM) Suplente: D. Imre Keserű, Postdoctoral Researcher MOBI – Vrije Universiteit Brussel Realizado el acto de defensa y lectura de la Tesis el día _____ de __________ de 2017 en la E.T.S. de Ingenieros de Canales, Caminos y Puertos de la U.P.M. Acuerda otorgarle la calificación de: ______________________________________________ Madrid, ___ de _________________de 2017. EL PRESIDENTE LOS VOCALES EL SECRETARIO Szüleimnek To my parents Πάντων χρημάτων μέτρον ἐστὶν ἄνθρωπος Man is the measure of all things (Protagoras) Acknowledgment Although my name is the only one on the front page, this dissertation reflects the efforts of many people. (Naturally, I take full responsibility for any errors.) I thank here all who have contributed to the realization of this PhD project. First of all, to my supervisor Andrés Monzón for inviting me to join the doctorate programme and trusting me during these years. Special thanks for the understanding and encouragement when it was really necessary. I am very grateful to Judy (Jutka) Benchaya, who selflessly helped proofread several portions of this manuscript. Thanks to the (mostly anonymous) reviewers who commented on previous versions of the dissertation or individual chapters. I mention here the name of only three, but many thanks to all my fellows at TRANSyT-UPM. It was a privilege to work with this team of outstanding researchers, supported by a great staff. The contribution by Andrés García Martínez and Guillermo Velázquez Romera have been crucial. Carmen Pérez Martínez kindly helped me several times not to be lost in bureaucracy. Thanks to my colleagues at the Embassy of Hungary in Madrid and KTI Institute for Transport Sciences in Budapest to facilitate the elaboration of this dissertation. Thanks to Jászberényi Melinda, for starting and unceasingly looking after my career. To Pálfalvi József, for introducing me to research and kindly guiding me during the first years after graduation. To Harald Beutl, for the inspiring conversations about the long way to achieve a PhD. And thanks to my family, who had to miss me in this extremely important and difficult period of our lives. To my long passed grandparents, Horváth Mária and Munkácsy Gyula, for teaching me how to think critically. To my parents, Bajkó Judit and Munkácsy Gyula, for everything… Particularly for showing me diversity in life and letting me find and walk my own way. To my brother, Munkácsy Márton, for the nice times we spent in sector C6 during the last two years of this PhD project. Finally to my wife, Mészáros Nóra, without whom this would not have been started, and to my baby son Máté, without whom it likely would not have been finished. Munkácsy András 25 June 2017 Abstract Bike-sharing nowadays is a must-have element of the urban transport system that is changing mobility patterns in cities worldwide. BiciMAD, introduced in Madrid in June 2014, is an example of the latest generation (demand responsive multimodal systems), a unique technology at the moment of implementation and a new element in the urban mobility of Madrid. It is also a relatively new topic of academic research, thus many issues have not yet been analysed in detail. Accordingly, the introduction of BiciMAD may be considered relevant in at least two aspects: locally, as a new (active and eco-friendly) mode of transport in the specific context of Madrid, and universally, as one of the first large fleets of bicycles with electric pedal assistance (pedelecs) and as a unique smart service configuration, including advanced mobility management measures. The present dissertation aims to respond to these research gaps. It comprises three main parts that follow the conceptual line of (1) reviewing the circumstances that influence the transition towards the massive use of bicycles and exploring the evolution of bike-sharing schemes in cities, (2) analysing a recently introduced pedelec-sharing system through user and non-user surveys and statistical methods, as well as (3) making conclusions to extend knowledge about potential user profiles, the bike-sharing adoption process and impacts on mobility in order to better understand the bike-sharing phenomenon and related travel behaviour. A combination of personal intercepts and online questionnaires has been employed to study user (and some non-user) characteristics in three survey phases (2014: 1859 responses; 2015: 584; 2016: 534), including a before-and-after panel survey (205 responses). Statistical methods (factor analysis, cluster analysis, measures of correlation) have been applied to identify and typify groups of (non-)users, as well as reveal the determinants and evolution of their willingness to use the service. For the analysis of bike-sharing as a new element in the urban transport system, the Innovation Diffusion Theory has been applied and amended by the employment of cycling familiarity as a potential adoption attribute. Outcomes indicate that the diffusion of bike- sharing is different from typical innovation adoption processes. One of the main conclusions is that those who report an experience of riding a bicycle in the city centre mostly are among the first and last adopters. Impacts of BiciMAD on individual travel behaviour (mode choice, bicycle use, etc.) and urban mobility patterns (modal shift, number of trips, etc.) have also been examined. Findings indicate that it has contributed to promote active travel and improve cycling culture. It has also increased mobility (total number and distance of trips) and decreased perceived travel time, which may be considered a key impact of bike-sharing. Resumen Los sistemas de bicicleta pública constituyen actualmente elementos imprescindibles del transporte urbano, que están cambiando las pautas de movilidad en ciudades de todo el mundo. BiciMAD, inaugurado en Madrid en junio de 2014, es un ejemplo de la última generación (sistemas multimodales adaptados a la demanda), de tecnología única en el momento de su introducción y un nuevo elemento de la movilidad urbana de Madrid. La bicicleta pública es un tema reciente en la investigación académica, por lo tanto, muchas cuestiones no se han analizado profundamente todavía. Por lo tanto, la implantanción de BiciMAD puede ser considerada relevante como mínimo en dos aspectos: a nivel local, como un modo de transporte nuevo (activo y ecológico) en el contexto específico de Madrid, y a nivel global, como una de las primeras grandes flotas de bicicletas con asistencia al pedaleo y como una configuración inteligente única que constituye una medida de gestión de movilidad avanzada. La presente tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo general dar respuesta a este vacío científico. Abarca tres partes clave en la línea de investigación de (1) revisar las circunstancias que influyen la transición hacia el uso masivo de la bicicleta y explorar la evolución de sistemas de bicicleta pública en ciudades; (2) analizar un nuevo sistema de bicicletas con asistencia al pedaleo a través de encuestas entre usuarios y no usuarios y métodos estadísticos; y (3) sacar conclusiones para ampliar el conocimiento sobre perfiles de usuarios potenciales, el proceso de adopción de bicicleta pública e impactos en la movilidad para entender mejor el fenómeno de la bicicleta pública y el comportamiento de sus usuarios. Para lograr el objetivo, se ha empleado una combinación de entrevistas personales y cuestionarios en línea para estudiar características de usuarios (y algunos no usuarios) en tres fases (2014: 1859 respuestas; 2015: 584; 2016: 534), incluyendo una encuesta panel de antes y después (205 respuestas). Se han aplicado métodos estadísticos (análisis factorial, análisis cluster, medidas de correlación) para identificar y tipificar grupos de (no) usuarios y revelar los determinantes y la evolución de su disposición a usar el servicio. Para el análisis de bicicleta pública como un elemento nuevo del sistema de transporte urbano, se ha empleado la teoría de difusión de innovaciones, incluyendo la familiaridad