Monthly Airline Data Update January, 2017 Passenger Traffic Growth (MoM) India's domestic air traffic zooms up 25% in January: DGCA According to the data released by the Directorate General of Civil Avi- ation (DGCA), the domestic airlines carried 95.79 lakh passengers in January 2017, against 76.55 lakhs passengers during the correspond- ing period of previous year thereby registering a growth of 25% YoY. The passenger load factor (PLF) stood at 88.20% in Jan’17. It remained the same as the month prior, primarily due to the end-of-tourist sea- son. With a load factor of 93.6%, SpiceJet witnessed the maximum Passenger Traffic Growth (YoY) occupancy. Indigo continues to dominate the market with 38.90% share, margin- ally down from its previous month’s market share of 40.40%. By 2020, passenger traffic at Indian airports is expected to increase to 421 million. Research Analyst: Aditya Jaiswal. Email Id: [email protected] 1 Domestic PLF remain on an elevated trajectory; SpiceJet leads with a PLF of 93.6% The domestic airlines carried 95.79 lakh passengers in Airline wise passenger growth (MoM) January 2017, against 76.55 lakhs passengers during the corresponding period of previous year thereby registering a Air India Jet Airways Indigo growth of 25% YoY, indicating a structural upswing in Spice Jet Go Air demand. Domestic passenger growth exceeded 20% for the 50 15th straight month. 40 Domestic air passenger volume growth YoY was as follows: 30 Indigo: +40%, SpiceJet: +22%, Go Air:+27%, Air India: +11%, 20 Jet Airway:+5.1%. 10 0 The PLF stood at 88.20% in Jan’17. It remained the same as the month prior, primarily due to the end-of-tourist season. After reporting its highest ever load factor in Dec’16 (93.7%), Source: DGCA website low-cost carrier SpiceJet’s Jan’17 PLF declined marginally to Airline-wise passenger load factor 93.6%. In terms of PLF. Indigo, Go Air, Jet and Air India reported a load factor of 90%, 90.8%, 86%, 81.4%. 95 India continues to be the fastest-growing country in the 90 world in terms of passengers. The most remarkable aspect 85 about the domestic aviation sector is the widening gap between passenger growth and capacity growth. Passenger 80 growth has been higher than the capacity growth for seven consecutive months now. This bodes favorable supply 75 demand dynamics for the industry. Air India Jet Indigo SpiceJet GoAir Airways Dec-16 Jan-17 Source: DGCA website 2 Market share analysis; IndiGo Continues To Rule Indian Skies India’s domestic airline market is dominated by IndiGo, Jet Airways, Air Market share position as on January, 2017 India and SpiceJet. These three players control more than 80% of the country’s civil aviation market. Rising per capita incomes, increasing con- Vistara , 3.20% Trujet, 0.30% Air Carnival, nectivity between states and steep discounts have helped the low cost Air Asia, 3% 0.10% carriers to gain market shares as compared to the other carriers. Air Costa, Air India, 0.50% In January’ 17, Indigo continued to dominate the market with 38.90% 14% share, marginally down from its previous month’s market share of 40.40%. (Exhibit 4). Jet Airways, Indigo, 39.80% 15.50% SpiceJet’s market share, at 12.8%, was the same as the previous month. Jet Airways reported a market share of 18%, consistently below 20% for Jet Lites, 2.50% 10th consecutive month. Market share for Air India marginally improved to 13.9%, whereas GoAir's market share stood at 8.3%, it seems to have Spice Jet, 12.80% stabilized in the 8-9% range. Go Air, 8.20% Airline passenger growth over the past two years- Company wise 500 Market share change (MoM) 400 Companies Jan-17 Dec-16 Nov-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jul-16 Jun-16 May-16 Mar-16 300 Air India 14% 14.00% 12.90% 13.00% 14.60% 14.80% 15.50% 15.60% 14.70% 200 Jet Airways 15.50% 15.30% 14.90% 14.70% 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 16.10% 17.60% 100 Jet Lites 2.50% 2.60% 2.40% 2.40% 2.80% 2.80% 2.80% 2.90% 2.66% 0 Spice Jet 12.80% 12.70% 12.80% 12.90% 12.60% 11.70% 12.70% 12.60% 12.80% Go Air 8.20% 8.20% 8.00% 7.90% 8.00% 8.40% 8.30% 8.10% 8.30% GoAir TruJet Indigo Vistara Jet Lite Air AsiaAir SpiceJet Air Air India Air CostaAir Indigo 39.80% 40.30% 42.10% 42.60% 39.90% 39.80% 37.90% 38.50% 38.40% Jet Airways Air Air Pegasus Air Costa 0.50% 0.50% 0.60% 0.60% 0.70% 0.80% 0.80% 0.70% 0.70% 2015 2016 Air Asia 3% 2.90% 2.80% 2.70% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% 2.20% Vistara 3.20% 3.20% 2.90% 2.70% 2.40% 2.60% 2.80% 2.50% 2.00% Trujet 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% Air Carnival 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3 Indian Aviation Industry - An emerging sector with stellar growth Passenger Traffic Growth (YoY) India is the ninth largest civil aviation market in the world with a market size of USD 16 billion. It is poised to become the 3rd largest market by 2020. Although the Industry has been growing at robust rate, there are still massive opportunities for the airline companies as only about 2% of the population takes to flying. Domestic passenger traffic has expanded at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.8 per cent over FY06 and FY15, it is expected to touch 100 million passengers by 2016-17. Since the FY 17, three of India’s biggest airlines—SpiceJet, IndiGo and Jet Airways— have posted profits quarter-after-quarter. Rising working group and widening middle class demography is expected to boost demand, which will boost the total revenue contributed by the companies. Demographically, the Indian aviation market is very strong as the government has been encouraging private sector participation. Foreign investment up to 49 per cent is allowed under automatic route in scheduled air transport service, regional air transport service and domestic scheduled passenger airline. Aviation terminologies: However, there are growing concerns over increasing air turbine fuel (ATF) price due to production cut by OPEC and Non-OPEC countries, 1. Passenger Load Factor (PLF): Measures the capacity utilization of which may hamper the future pricing strategy of the airline public transport services like airlines and passenger railways. companies, hence it may impact the margin structure for the Indian airline companies. 2. Air Turbine Fuel (ATF): Aviation fuel is a specialized type of petroleum-based fuel used to power aircraft. 3. Available Seat Kilometer (ASK): The basic measure of capacity, one seat (empty or filled) flying one kilometer is an ASK. 4. Revenue Passenger Kilometer (RPK): The Basic measure of reve- nue. 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