CIES Football Observatory Monthly Report Issue no. 14 - April 2016 Spotting future stars Drs Raffaele Poli, Loïc Ravenel and Roger Besson 1. Introduction Playing numerous games during the first We go then on to explain the capital experi- years of a professional career is an essential ence method and we highlight the average condition in order to be able to compete in values measured for players of the big-5 the top level leagues worldwide. As a contin- leagues. Within this framework, we list the uation of the analysis published in February young footballers who are currently part of 2015, this Monthly Report presents the ex- these championships with the highest val- perience capital approach developed by the ues for experience. Finally, we review the CIES Football Observatory to identify play- most experienced U23 footballers among ers most likely to succeed in their career. those currently playing in 26 other top divi- sion leagues of UEFA member associations. The paper first highlights the crucial role played by competitions outside of the big-5 leagues in the sporting development of foot- ballers present in the latter championships. Indeed, only a small minority of footballers playing in the five major European competi- tions have never taken part in other leagues from the beginning of their adult career up until their 23rd birthday. 1 Monthly Report no. 14 - Spotting future stars 2. The importance of playing Current big-5 league footballers played on Generally speaking, forwards start their average 93.9 domestic league matches since professional career earlier than footballers the start of their professional career up until in other positions. They are thus likely to the semester preceding their 23rd birthday. play a greater number of matches for each The average number of matches played is age threshold up until 23. At the other ex- 11.1 before 19 years of age, 26.8 before 20, treme, goalkeepers are fielded less during 46.9 before 21, 69.7 before 22 and 93.9 be- the first years of their career. Indeed, for fore 23. B-team games are also included. this position, experience is more important than physical fitness. This also holds true, to a lesser extent, for defenders. Figure 1: Average number of domestic league matches played at adult level by big-5 league players, per age and position Total Midfielders Until 19 years 11.1 Until 19 years 12.5 Until 20 years 26.8 Until 20 years 29.8 Until 21 years 46.9 Until 21 years 52.0 Until 22 years 69.7 Until 22 years 76.2 Until 23 years 93.9 Until 23 years 101.8 Goalkeepers Forwards Until 19 years 5.9 Until 19 years 14.8 Until 20 years 15.4 Until 20 years 32.8 Until 21 years 28.9 Until 21 years 54.9 Until 22 years 45.6 Until 22 years 80.4 Until 23 years 64.6 Until 23 years 106.3 Defenders Until 19 years 9.0 Until 20 years 23.7 Until 21 years 43.1 Until 22 years 65.2 Until 23 years 89.1 2 Monthly Report no. 14 - Spotting future stars Among players aged 23 or over currently This analysis illustrates the crucial role of under contract with big-5 league clubs, only leagues outside the big-5 in the develop- 5.4% have always played in teams taking part ment of players’ careers. This holds true also in these championships between the start for the most talented footballers. This find- of the professional career and the semester ing suggests that the optimisation of the en- preceding their 23rd birthday. This percent- vironment within which to promote talents age remains limited also by considering that goes hand in hand with partnerships and footballers who played for B-teams of big-5 strategic alliances between teams of differ- league clubs spent their entire career in the ent levels. five major European championships: 16.6%. Instead of recruiting a plethora of young tal- The percentage of footballers having always ents who will never get their chance at the played in the top leagues is particularly low highest level, and in the interests of both among goalkeepers (3.3%). For other posi- the game and the players themselves, the tions, this figure is between 5 and 6%. Even wealthiest teams would do better to coop- by including footballers who always played erate in a healthy and united manner with for big-5 league clubs but participated in those of lesser means. This would permit B-team matches, the proportion of those the more regular fielding of talents since the who spent their entire career in the most very beginning of their adult career, which competitive championships is low: between would give them the opportunity to fully de- 11.6% for forwards and 18.7% for midfield- velop their skills. ers. Figure 2: % of big-5 league footballers who always played in the big-5 leagues until the age of 23, per position Type I Type II Goalkeepers 3.3% 13.2% Defenders 5.2% 18.4% Midfielders 6.2% 18.7% Forwards 5.3% 11.6% Total 5.4% 16.6% Type I : Footballers who only played in the big-5 leagues Type II : Footballers who only played in big-5 league clubs (including B-teams) 3 Monthly Report no. 14 - Spotting future stars 3. The experience capital method The notion of experience capital refers to league. This method allows us to compare matches played in adult championships up the level of the experience gained by players until 23 years of age. This age is also taken on an international basis. into account by FIFA for the payment of training compensation when a first profes- The analysis of the average experience cap- sional contract is signed. ital of big-5 league players is also useful in establishing thresholds above which players To calculate experience capital, we attribute from outside these championships have a different values to matches according to an concrete possibility of successfully joining exclusive classification method that takes the five major European competitions in the into account the performance of national as- near future. This analysis indicates that in sociation representatives in European club order to be able to cope with big-5 league competitions, the division of the employ- demands, midfielders and forwards need to er club in the domestic league and results accumulate more experience capital from achieved. the outset of their career than defenders and goalkeepers. For extra-European countries, the value of matches was established according to correspondences made with European as- sociations. For example, all other things being equal, a Brazilian top division match is equivalent to one in the top Portuguese Figure 3: Average experience capital of big-5 league players, per age and position Total Midfielders Until 19 years 3.9 Until 19 years 4.7 Until 20 years 10.6 Until 20 years 12.5 Until 21 years 20.9 Until 21 years 24.4 Until 22 years 34.1 Until 22 years 39.3 Until 23 years 49.9 Until 23 years 56.9 Goalkeepers Forwards Until 19 years 1.1 Until 19 years 6.0 Until 20 years 3.7 Until 20 years 14.1 Until 21 years 9.1 Until 21 years 25.6 Until 22 years 17.0 Until 22 years 40.6 Until 23 years 28.0 Until 23 years 57.8 Defenders Until 19 years 2.8 Until 20 years 8.9 Until 21 years 18.5 Until 22 years 31.0 Until 23 years 46.0 4 Monthly Report no. 14 - Spotting future stars Hereafter, we present the five big-5 league In the rankings for goalkeepers are notably players with the highest values for experi- two who were born in 1999: Gianluigi Don- ence capital per position and year of birth. narumma (Milan) and Alban Lafont (Tou- Among them are several players that are louse). Our analysis also allows us to high- likely to leave their mark on the history of light goalkeepers whose experience capital football. Despite their tender years, quite a is well above the average measured for all number of them are already full internation- big-5 league goalkeepers at the same age: als. Mouez Hassan (Nice), Paul Nardi (Monaco), Pau López (Espanyol), Jan Oblak (Atlético Madrid), Timo Horn (Cologne), Alphonse Aréola (Villarreal, on loan from Paris St-Germain), Loris Karius (Mainz) and Jack Butland (Stoke). Figure 4: Most experienced young goalkeepers, big-5 leagues Born in 1996 or after Born in 1994 1. Gianluigi Donnarumma 10.8 1. Paul Nardi 29.2 Milan AC (ITA) AS Monaco (FRA) 2. Josip Posavec 6.2 2. Pau López 25.9 Palermo US (ITA) RCD Espanyol (ESP) 3. Paul Bernardoni 3.9 3. Odisseas Vlachodimos 15.4 FC Girondins de Bordeaux (FRA) VfB Stuttgart (GER) 4. Alban Lafont 3.3 4. Yoan Cardinale 5.7 Toulouse FC (FRA) OGC Nice (FRA) 5. Paul André Guerin 1.4 GFCO Ajaccio (FRA) Born in 1995 Born in 1993 1. Mouez Hassen 34.9 1. Jan Oblak 96.5 OGC Nice (FRA) Club Atlético de Madrid (ESP) 2. Rubén Blanco 8.5 2. Timo Horn 85.8 RC Celta de Vigo (ESP) 1. FC Köln (GER) 3. Pierluigi Gollini 5.1 3. Alphonse Aréola 68.5 Hellas Verona FC (ITA) Villarreal CF (ESP) 4. Mike Maignan 3.0 4. Loris Karius 68.1 LOSC Lille (FRA) 1. FSV Mainz 05 (GER) 5. Luca Lezzerini 1.2 5. Jack Butland 67.5 AC Fiorentina (ITA) Stoke City FC (ENG) 5 Monthly Report no.