Symbiotic Autonomous Systems White Paper III November 2019 Stefan Boschert, Tom Coughlin, Maurizio Ferraris, Francesco Flammini, Jose Gonzalez Florido, Alejandro Cadenas Gonzalez, Patrick Henz, Derrick de Kerckhove, Roland Rosen, Roberto Saracco, Aman Singh, Antony Vitillo, Mazin Yousif Edited by Theresa Cavrak digitalreality.ieee.org Contents OVERVIEW .................................................................................................................... 3 1. SYMBIOTIC AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS ....................................................................... 8 2 MARKET EVOLUTION ................................................................................................ 15 2.1 Technologies market trends .................................................................................. 15 2.2 Manufacturing (including related logistics) .............................................................. 39 2.3 Health care (including hospital management) ...................................................... 42 2.4 Retail .............................................................................................................. 43 2.5 Finance ........................................................................................................... 44 2.6 Transport ........................................................................................................ 46 2.7 Education ........................................................................................................ 47 3 INDUSTRY ADOPTION ................................................................................................ 49 3.1 Manufacturing ..................................................................................................... 49 3.2 Healthcare .......................................................................................................... 62 3.2.1 Delocalization ................................................................................................... 62 3.3 Retail ................................................................................................................. 67 3.4 Finance .............................................................................................................. 69 3.5 Transport ........................................................................................................... 72 3.6 Telecommunications ............................................................................................ 77 3.7 Security ............................................................................................................. 79 4 SOCIETAL IMPACT ..................................................................................................... 85 4.1 Digital Reality Versus Reality ................................................................................. 85 4.2 Personal level ...................................................................................................... 92 4.3 Community level ................................................................................................. 95 4.4 City level ............................................................................................................ 97 4.5 Jobs impact ........................................................................................................ 99 4.6 Ethics in Symbiotic Autonomous Systems ............................................................. 103 ANNEX 1 – Digital Transformation ................................................................................ 106 Digital Transformation – Disruptions .......................................................................... 111 Digital Transformation – Towards the disruption ......................................................... 118 Digital Transformation – Distributed Digital Platforms .................................................. 120 ACRONYMS ................................................................................................................ 138 Acknowledgement The editing and polishing of the text of this paper by Theresa Cavrak is gratefully acknowledged. 2 OVERVIEW This document represents the third White Paper produced by the IEEE Symbiotic Autonomous Systems (SAS) Initiative that in 2019 merged with the IEEE Digital Reality Initiative to further foster the Digital Transformation and continue the work of the first two years of the SAS Initiative. The first White Paper provided the vision and the framework of symbiotic autonomous systems, and the second White Paper addressed the roadmaps that will pave the way to the fulfilment of the vision and the creation of the framework, applied to both technology and considerations of economics and societal aspects. The evolution window considered by the second White Paper spans 20 years, from 2020 up to 2040, getting fuzzier as the horizon is pushed further out in time. However, one of the outcomes of the second White Paper was the recognition that several steps are now underway and that most, but not all, of the technologies considered have passed the stage of theoretical research into preliminary experimentation, industrial application research, and in some cases, to leading-edge products that are already in the market. The first section briefly summarizes the first two White Papers. Those familiar with them can skip over it, although it has been written in a way to provide a synthetic overview of the implications of the studies presented in those first two White Papers and as such it can make for a useful starting point in reading the following sections. Additionally, the first section provides a brief outlook at the general aspects of the Digital Transformation, leaving the specifics to the single market and industry sectors. A more comprehensive presentation of the Digital Transformation is attached as Annex 1. This third White Paper focuses on today’s application of (Symbiotic) Autonomous Systems, the industrial application research, and the feedback coming from leading edge Industry Focus products, since these are the stepping stones to foster the evolution. Notice that at this time, and considering the observation timeframe of this White Paper, the focus is on Autonomous Systems. Symbioses will not materialize in the coming two years, at least in a significant way from the point of view of implants and more generally of symbiotic technologies. However, symbioses at a societal level is already here (for example, we are in a symbiotic relation with our smartphones) and is addressed in Section 4. The target audience of this third White Paper includes professionals, industry leaders, public institutions, and government decision makers on whom lies the responsibility of investing resources and delivering to the market, affecting the society and wellbeing of citizens as well as creating business wealth. The focus on market and wellbeing of citizens requires an in-depth consideration of societal issues and the factors leading to their evolution. Societal and cultural aspects are becoming more intertwined with the market, by being both affected by the offerings and affecting the offerings by shaping the demand. Hence, societal and cultural aspects are a powerful lever in steering investment, that in turn, steers technology evolution and market offerings. A significant part of this report looks at these aspects connecting them to industry strategies in the medium term. Because of this, several industry players have contributed to this White Paper, bringing their specific point of view and experience. Although this third White Paper is clearly targeted to this audience it can be most valuable to academia, connecting their studies to the reality of the industry and market in a rapidly evolving landscape. After the overview of the first two White Papers, the next section outlines the expected market evolution, considering it from various aspects and taking 2018 as the base year, whenever data were available, and forecasts the following in the years 2023-2025: 3 Technology: a number of the technologies identified in the second White Paper have been addressed. It should be noted that the figures provided have been taken from several documents published by a variety of market intelligence studies and for each technology one can find different estimates in different studies, even when those market values refer to the past. The reason, often, is in the different boundaries that are chosen for a given technology. In reporting the market value, and estimate, there is always a reference to the source, and it is appropriate to refer to that source and read the data in the full context of the source to appreciate the boundaries. This applies to all market values and estimates, Market Trends although in the case of technology it is basically impossible to separate the market value of a technology applied to a specific field to the global value, independent of the application field. Unless specifically indicated, the market value provided for a given technology refers to all of its possible applications. The technologies have been clustered under machine augmentation, human augmentation, and symbiosis, this latter focusing on Digital Twins since all other aspects of symbioses presented in the second White Paper fall beyond the horizon of this one. Manufacturing: manufacturing plants will become fully autonomous and intelligent leveraging edge deployments with a high degree of intelligent automation on the factory floor and its ecosystem.