Space Exploration 2025 SPACE EXPLORATION 2025: GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES AND OPTIONS FOR EUROPE Report 14, August 2008 Nicolas PETER, ESPI DISCLAIMER This Report has been prepared for the client in accordance with the associated contract and ESPI will accept no liability for any losses or damages arising out of the provision of the report to third parties. Short Title: ESPI Report 14, August 2008 Editor, Publisher: ESPI European Space Policy Institute A-1030 Vienna, Schwarzenbergplatz 6 Austria http://www.espi.or.at Tel.: +43 1 718 11 18 - 0 Fax - 99 Copyright: © ESPI, August 2008 Rights reserved - No part of this report may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or for any purpose without permission from ESPI. Citations and extracts to be published by other means are subject to mentioning “source: © ESPI Report 14, August 2008. All rights reserved” and sample transmission to ESPI before publishing. Price: 11,00 EUR Printed by ESA/ESTEC Layout and Design: M. A. Jakob/ESPI and Panthera.cc Ref.: C/20490-003-P24 Report 14, August 2008 2 Space Exploration 2025 Space Exploration 2025: Global Perspectives and Options for Europe Executive Summary ........................................................................................................5 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................9 1.1. Background ..........................................................................................................9 1.2. Objectives of the study........................................................................................9 1.3. Purpose of the ESPI Report ................................................................................9 1.4. Methodology .......................................................................................................10 1.5. Structure of the ESPI Report.............................................................................11 2. Analysis of worldwide and national trends ............................................................12 2.1. Major trends shaping the global environment until 2025...............................12 2.1.1. Economy......................................................................................................................12 2.1.2. Energy..........................................................................................................................14 2.1.3. Demography ................................................................................................................16 2.1.4. Environment.................................................................................................................17 2.1.5. Science and Technology (S&T)...................................................................................18 2.2. Geopolitical drivers............................................................................................19 2.3. Trends in selected countries.............................................................................19 2.3.1. Australia.......................................................................................................................20 2.3.2. Brazil............................................................................................................................21 2.3.3. Canada ........................................................................................................................22 2.3.4. China............................................................................................................................23 2.3.5. India .............................................................................................................................23 2.3.6. Japan ...........................................................................................................................25 2.3.7. Russia..........................................................................................................................25 2.3.8. South Africa .................................................................................................................26 2.3.9. South Korea.................................................................................................................27 2.3.10. Ukraine.......................................................................................................................28 2.3.11. United States of America...........................................................................................29 2.4. Summary .............................................................................................................30 European Space Policy Institute 3 Report 14, August 2008 3. Analysis of worldwide space strategies and plans................................................31 3.1. An evolving space context ................................................................................31 3.2. Emerging trends in space exploration .............................................................32 3.2.1. Robotic exploration missions.......................................................................................34 3.2.2. Human spaceflight activities ........................................................................................36 3.2.3. International cooperation in space exploration............................................................37 3.3. Europe in space exploration .............................................................................38 3.3.1. European programmes ................................................................................................38 3.3.2. National missions.........................................................................................................40 3.3.3. Towards a new European space context ....................................................................40 3.4. Country outlook..................................................................................................43 3.4.1. Australia.......................................................................................................................43 3.4.2. Brazil............................................................................................................................44 3.4.3. Canada ........................................................................................................................45 3.4.4. China............................................................................................................................47 3.4.5. India .............................................................................................................................49 3.4.6. Japan ...........................................................................................................................51 3.4.7. Russia..........................................................................................................................52 3.4.8. South Africa .................................................................................................................54 3.4.9. South Korea.................................................................................................................56 3.4.10. Ukraine.......................................................................................................................57 3.4.11. United States of America...........................................................................................59 3.5. Summary .............................................................................................................61 4. The way forward........................................................................................................62 4.1. Policy options.....................................................................................................63 4.1.1. “Status quo” option ......................................................................................................64 4.1.2. “Conservative” option...................................................................................................65 4.1.3. “Pragmatic” option .......................................................................................................66 4.1.4. “Ambitious” option........................................................................................................67 4.1.5. Method of assessment and evaluation ........................................................................67 4.1.6. Evaluation of options ...................................................................................................68 4.1.6.1. “Status quo” option ...............................................................................................68 4.1.6.2. “Conservative” option ...........................................................................................68 4.1.6.3. “Pragmatic” option ................................................................................................68 4.1.6.4. “Ambitious” option ................................................................................................69 4.1.7. Summary......................................................................................................................69 4.2. Timing of the decision .......................................................................................69 4.3. International cooperation in European space exploration plans...................70 4.4. Summary .............................................................................................................75