London Wholesale Markets Review June 2007 London Wholesale Markets Review Prepared for the Greater London Authority by URS Corporation Limited June 2007 copyright Greater London Authority June 2007 Published by Greater London Authority City Hall The Queen’s Walk London SE1 2AA www.london.gov.uk enquiries: 020 7983 4100 minicom 020 7983 4458 ISBN 978 1 84781 0397 This publication is printed on recycled paper The views expressed in this report are those of the consultants and do not necessarily represent those of the Greater London Authority. London Wholesale Markets Review LIMITATION URS Corporation Limited (URS) has prepared this Report for the sole use of the Greater London Authority in accordance with the Agreement under which our services were performed. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this Report or any other services provided by us. This Report may not be relied upon by any other party without the prior and express written agreement of URS. Unless otherwise stated in this Report, the assessments made assume that the sites and facilities will continue to be used for their current purpose without significant change. The conclusions and recommendations contained in this Report are based upon information provided by others and upon the assumption that all relevant information has been provided by those parties from whom it has been requested. Information obtained from third parties has not been independently verified by URS, unless otherwise stated in the Report. London Wholesale Markets Review EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..............................................................................................................IV 1. INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Context............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2. Scope ............................................................................................................................... 2 1.3. Approach.......................................................................................................................... 2 1.4. Report Structure............................................................................................................... 3 2. LONDON’S WHOLESALE MARKETS ........................................................................... 4 2.1. Smithfield.......................................................................................................................... 4 2.2. Billingsgate....................................................................................................................... 6 2.3. New Spitalfields................................................................................................................ 8 2.4. New Covent Garden......................................................................................................... 9 2.5. Western International ..................................................................................................... 11 2.6. Summary........................................................................................................................ 14 3. CONTEXT ...................................................................................................................... 16 3.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 16 3.2. Previous Reports on London’s Wholesale Markets ....................................................... 16 3.3. Planning and Transport Policy ....................................................................................... 17 3.4. London Food Policy ....................................................................................................... 20 3.5. Conclusion...................................................................................................................... 22 4. SECTOR TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS..................................................................... 23 4.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 23 4.2. Overview ........................................................................................................................ 23 4.3. Foodservice Sector ........................................................................................................ 24 4.4. Retailers ......................................................................................................................... 32 4.5. Other Wholesalers ......................................................................................................... 35 4.6. Food Processors ............................................................................................................ 39 4.7. Conclusion and Rationale for Composite Markets......................................................... 41 5. DEMAND PROJECTIONS............................................................................................. 45 5.1. Overview ........................................................................................................................ 45 5.2. Projections Methodology................................................................................................ 45 5.3. Historic Turnover............................................................................................................ 47 5.4. Retail and Restaurant Expenditure ................................................................................ 49 5.5. Wholesale Market Catchment and Market Share .......................................................... 54 5.6. Impact of Sector Trends................................................................................................. 56 5.7. Forecast Results ............................................................................................................58 6. OPTIONS .......................................................................................................................64 6.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 64 6.2. Option 1: Status Quo...................................................................................................... 64 6.3. Option 2: Saphir Consolidation ...................................................................................... 65 6.4. Option 3: Consolidation of City of London Sites ............................................................ 65 6.5. Option 4: Consolidation to New Covent Garden............................................................ 66 6.6. Option 5: Move Billingsgate ........................................................................................... 67 6.7. Option 6: One Wholesale Market................................................................................... 67 6.8. Option 7: No Wholesale Market ..................................................................................... 68 7. APPRAISAL CRITERIA ................................................................................................ 70 7.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 70 7.2. Operational Viability ....................................................................................................... 70 Page i London Wholesale Markets Review 7.3. Travel Miles.................................................................................................................... 70 7.4. Congestion Impacts ....................................................................................................... 70 7.5. Local SMEs, BAME Communities and Workers ............................................................ 71 7.6. Area Regeneration and Opportunity Cost...................................................................... 71 7.7. Capacity and Layout Impacts......................................................................................... 71 7.8. Neighbouring Uses......................................................................................................... 72 7.9. Balance of Capital Receipt / Redevelopment Costs ...................................................... 72 7.10. Timeline and Deliverability ............................................................................................. 72 7.11. Criteria Weighting and Rationale ................................................................................... 72 8. STRATEGIC OPTION APPRAISAL.............................................................................. 74 8.1. Introduction..................................................................................................................... 74 8.2. Operational Viability ....................................................................................................... 74 8.3. Travel Impacts................................................................................................................ 81 8.4. Congestion Impacts ....................................................................................................... 85 8.5. Local SMEs, BAME Communities and Workers ............................................................ 87 8.6. Area Regeneration