“CAROL I” NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY CENTRE FOR DEFENCE AND SECURITY STRATEGIC STUDIES No. 1[54]/2015 Quarterly academic journal acknowledged by CNATDCU, Indexed in CEEOL, ProQuest, EBSCO, IndexCopernicus international databases “CAROL I” NATIONAL DEFENCE UNIVERSITY PUBLISHING HOUSE BUCHAREST STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 1/2015 EDITORIAL COUNCIL Gabriel-Florin MOISESCU, PhD Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania, Chairman Gheorghe CALOPĂREANU, PhD Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Ion ROCEANU, PhD Professor, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Vasile BUCINSCHI, PhD Professor, “Henri Coandă” Air Force Academy, Romania Florin DIACONU, PhD Assistant Professor, University of Bucharest, Romania Stan ANTON, PhD Lecturer, “Carol I” National Defence University, Romania Mircea TĂNASE, PhD, General Staff, Ministry of National Defence, Romania Pavel NECAS, PhD Professor eng., Permanent Representative of the Slovak Republic to the European Union, Belgium Bohuslav PRIKRYL, PhD Professor, National Defence University, Czech Republic John L. CLARKE, PhD Professor, “George C. Marshall” European Centre for Security Studies, Germany Ilias ILIOPOULOS, PhD Professor, Naval War College, Greece Adrian GHEORGHE, PhD Professor eng., Old Dominion University, USA Georgi DIMOV, PhD Associate Professor, National Defence Academy, Bulgaria Boguslaw PACEK, PhD Associate Professor, National Defence University, Poland Dana PERKINS, PhD, UN Security Council, USA Gabor BOLDIZSÁR, PhD, National University of Public Service, Hungary Dario MATIKA, PhD, Institute for Research and Development of Defence Systems, Croatia SCIENTIFIC BOARD Mirela ATANASIU, PhD Researcher Constantin MOŞTOFLEI, PhD Senior Researcher Cristian BĂHNĂREANU, PhD Senior Researcher Visarion NEAGOE, PhD Professor Cristina BOGZEANU, Researcher Marius V. PĂUNESCU, PhD Lecturer Răzvan BUZATU, PhD Alexandra SARCINSCHI, PhD Senior Researcher Ion CHIORCEA, PhD Professor Marius ŞERBESZKI, PhD Associate Professor Pascu FURNICĂ, PhD Eduard VITALIS, PhD Lecturer Constantin IORDACHE, PhD Professor Mihai ZODIAN, PhD Junior Researcher EDITORS Stan ANTON, PhD Lecturer, editor in chief Daniela RĂPAN, deputy editor in chief Mihai ZODIAN, PhD, editor in charge of “Colocviu strategic” supplement Contact address: Şoseaua Panduri, nr. 68-72, Sector 5, Bucureşti, România Telephone: +4021-319.56.49, Fax: 4021-319.57. 80 E-mail:[email protected] Websites: http://cssas.unap.ro/index_en.htm, http://cssas.unap.ro/en/periodicals.htm, http://impactstrategic.unap.ro/index_en.html Disclaimer: Opinions expressed within published materials belong strictly to authors and do not represent the position of CDSSS/ “Carol I” NDU. Authors are fully responsible for their articles’ content, according to the provisions of Law no. 206/2004 regarding good conduct in scientific research, technological development and innovation. ISSN 1842-9904 (on-line); ISSN-L 1841-5784 2 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 1/2015 STRATEGIC IMPACT CONTENTS Editor’s Note .............................................................................................................................. 5 POLITICAL-MILITARY TOPICALITY Exploring European Union Security Alternatives − Is Europe Ready to Move on? Valentin IACOB ......................................................................................................................... 7 Contemporary Crises and Conflicts Susceptible of Major Complex Effects on the European Security Environment. Ukraine Case Mirela ATANASIU, PhD ......................................................................................................... 22 Missile Defence in Romania – Implications for Security Policy Florentin-Gabriel GIUVARĂ Marius ŞERBESZKI, PhD....................................................................................................... 38 GEOPOLITICS AND GEOSTRATEGIES: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES The Geopolitical and Geostrategic Environment in the Romanian Area of Interest, in the Current International Context Alexandru STOICA, PhD ........................................................................................................ 51 Political Dimension of the Art of War by Sun Tzu and its Game-Theoretical Background Mateusz HUDZIKOWSKI, PhD ............................................................................................. 64 Analysis of the Power Factors and Their Influence on the USA, EU and Arab World Mihaela GHEORGHE, PhD .................................................................................................... 82 Romania’s Demographic Vulnerabilities with Possible Geopolitical Impact Cătălina TODOR .............................................................................................................................. 90 SECURITY AND MILITARY STRATEGY The Decision-Making Process – from First Generation Warfare to the Post-Cold War Revolution in Military Affairs Niculai-Tudorel LEHACI, PhD ............................................................................................. 106 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 1/2015 3 STRATEGIC IMPACT Post-Cold War Evolution of the Military Organisation Costinel NIŢU, PhD............................................................................................................... 113 The Influence of Unmanned Air Vehicles on the Revolution in Military Affairs Laurențiu-Răducu POPESCU, PhD ....................................................................................... 120 Environmental Conflicts as Security Threats Irina TĂTARU, PhD ............................................................................................................. 132 THE TERRORIST THREAT The Emergence and Activity of Tunisia’s Most Fearful Terrorist Group János BESENYŐ, PhD Zoltán PRANTNER, PhD ...................................................................................................... 137 Dynamics of Worldwide Jihad Phenomenon, from Al-Qaeda to Islamic State Liviu IONIŢĂ Anca IONIȚĂ ........................................................................................................................ 151 ANALYSES, SYNTHESES, EVALUATIONS The Ukrainian Euromaidan and its Effects Cristian Leonard DORCA, PhD ............................................................................................ 160 The Legal Status of Combatants Which Benefit from an Additional Regime of Protection Alexandr CAUIA, PhD .......................................................................................................... 171 Sociology, History and Conceptual Models Mihai ZODIAN, PhD ............................................................................................................. 178 Considerations on the Relation between Values and Security Culture Veronica PĂSTAE, PhD ........................................................................................................ 192 CDSSS AGENDA Activities of the Centre for Defence and Security Strategic Studies, January-March 2015 ............................................................................................................ 198 Guide for Authors ................................................................................................................. 200 4 STRATEGIC IMPACT No. 1/2015 STRATEGIC IMPACT EDITOR’S NOTE Dear collaborators and readers, The first edition of the journal this year subscribes to the usual thematic of the publication, containing a record number of articles − 17, most of all being deliverables elaborated by PhD students and post-doctoral researchers within the projects under development in our University, namely SmartSPODAS and Horizons 2020. In the opening of the Political-Military Topicality rubric, Colonel Valentin Iacob explores European Union Security Alternatives, launching the question Is Europe Ready to Move on? The second article, signed by our colleague, Mirela Atanasiu, PhD researcher, approaches the ardent topic of Contemporary Crises and Conflicts Susceptible of Major Complex Effects on the European Security Environment, bringing into attention the Ukraine Case. Next, Commanders Florentin- Gabriel Giuvară and Marius Şerbeszki, PhD Associate Professor suggest a joint analysis of the Missile Defence in Romania – Implications for Security Policy. The rubric Geopolitics and Geostrategies: Trends and Perspectives comprises four articles. In the first one, Colonel Alexandru Stoica, PhD exploresThe Geopolitical and Geostrategic Environment in the Romanian Area of Interest, in the Current International Context. The second article, signed by a familiar collaborator of our journal, Mr. Mateusz Hudzikowski, PhD, brings to our readers’ attention The Political Dimension of the Art of War by Sun Tzu and its Game-Theoretical Background. Mihaela Gheorghe, PhD proposed herself in the article she elaborated an Analysis of the Power Factors and Their Influence on the USA, European Union and Arab World. C ătălina Todor, former volunteer within CDSSS, closes the rubric with a thorough examination of Romania’s Demographic Vulnerabilities with Possible Geopolitical Impact. In the rubric Security and Military Strategy, we included four materials approaching different, but complementary topics, specific to the field. Thus, Major Lecturer Niculai- Tudorel Lehaci, PhD, dwells on The Decision-Making Process – from First Generation Warfare to the Post-Cold War Revolution in Military Affairs. Then, Colonel Costinel Niţu, PhD Associate Professor speaks about Post-Cold War Evolution of the Military Body. Further on, Laurențiu-Răducu