EMERGING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Climate-related hazards and urbanization: PROTECTING UGANDA’s children EMERGING GLOBAL CHALLENGES Climate-related hazards and urbanization: PROTECTING UGANDA’s children JUNE 2017 Contents Glossary ..............................................................................................................................................IV Abbreviations .....................................................................................................................................IV Foreword ............................................................................................................................................VI Acknowledgements ...........................................................................................................................VII Executive summary .............................................................................................................................X 1/Introduction .....................................................................................................................................1 PART 1: CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS 2/Introduction & methodology ...........................................................................................................7 3/Observations and projections ........................................................................................................11 4/The impact of climate variability on early childhood .....................................................................17 5/The impact of climate variability on childhood and adolescence ..................................................31 PART 2: URBANIZATION 6/Introduction and rationale .............................................................................................................47 7/Urbanization: What it means for children .....................................................................................50 8/Urbanization: What it means for adolescents and youth ..............................................................55 9/Conclusion and policy recommendations .....................................................................................63 Appendix/Models used in calculating the impact of SPEI .................................................................70 References .........................................................................................................................................71 i CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS AND URBANIZATION: PROTECTING UGANDA’s children FIGURES Figure 1: Child poverty in Kampala District by Parish (2012/13) ........................................................2 Figure 2: Annual mean temperature (left), annual total precipitation (centre) and annual minimum SPEI (right) 1986–2005 ......................................................................................................................11 Figure 3: Country average of annual mean temperature (left), annual total precipitation (centre) and annual minimum SPEI (3 monthly, right) 1901–2013 .................................................................12 Figure 4: Projected changes in annual mean temperature, annual cumulative precipitation and annual minimal SPEI ..........................................................................................................................14 Figure 5: Ensemble mean projections for changes in annual mean temperature, annual cumulative precipitation and annual minimal SPEI .............................................................................................15 Figure 6: Percentages of children aged ≤5 years who are stunted by country and year ...................18 Figure 7: Percentages of children aged ≤5 years who are stunted by household wealth quintiles ...19 Figure 8: Percentages of children aged ≤5 years who are wasted by household wealth quintiles ...19 Figure 9: Percentages of children aged ≤5 years who are stunted by education ..............................20 Figure 10: Percentages of children aged ≤5 years who are wasted by education .............................20 Figure 11: Impacts of changes in SPEI Index on stunting (percentage points) ..................................21 Figure 12: Impacts of SPEI Index on stunting (percentage points with 95% confidence interval).....22 Figure 13: Impact of SPEI Index on wasting (percentage points) ......................................................30 Figure 14: A conceptual model of the relationship between environmental change and educational outcomes among children from agricultural households ..................................................................32 Figure 15: Impacts of SPEI Index on school attendance (percentage points) ....................................35 Figure 16: Impacts of SPEI Index during previous year on school attendance (percentage points) ..36 Figure 17: Percentage of children aged 6–15 who are working, by school attendance ....................42 Figure 18: Number of working hours by type of work and school attendance .................................42 Figure 19: Urbanization rate/child poverty population 2002–2014 ..................................................49 Figure 20: Children born with low birth weight ................................................................................50 Figure 21: Urban children 0–5 years, nutrition by wealth quintiles ..................................................51 Figure 22: Living conditions by urban socio-economic status (%) .....................................................52 Figure 23: Drop-out by gender and rural/urban (%), 15–19 and 15–24 ............................................56 Figure 24: Biggest health risks (15–24) .............................................................................................57 Figure 25: Location preference (%), 15–19 .......................................................................................57 Figure 26: Main worries by rural/urban (%), 15–19 ..........................................................................58 Figure 27: Main worries by rural/urban (%), 15-24 ...........................................................................59 Figure 28: Job expectations by rural/urban (%), 15–19 and 15–24 ...................................................60 CLIMATE-RELATED HAZARDS AND URBANIZATION: PROTECTING UGANDA’s children ii Figure 29: Skills training received or not by gender and rural/urban (%), 15–24 ..............................61 Figure 30: Application of skills received from training for income-generating activities by gender and rural/urban (%), 15–24 ......................................................................................................................61 TABLES Table 1: Children in Kampala and Uganda by age group .....................................................................3 Table 2: SPEI classification ...................................................................................................................8 Table 3: Global Climate Models used for climate projections in Figure 4 .........................................13 Table 4: Effect of SPEI in infancy on stunting by geographic characteristics .....................................23 Table 5: Effect of SPEI in infancy on stunting by by gender and wealth quintile ...............................25 Table 6: Effect of SPEI in infancy on stunting by education ...............................................................27 Table 7: Effect of SPEI during last three months on wasting .............................................................28 Table 8: Effect of SPEI on changes in schooling outcomes ................................................................34 Table 9: Effect of SPEI on school attendance by year of SPEI measurement and a child’s age ..........34 Table 10: Effect of SPEI on school attendance by geographic characteristics ...................................37 Table 11: Effect of SPEI on school attendance by land ownership characteristics ............................38 Table 12: Effect of SPEI on school attendance by demographic and household characteristics .......40 Table 13: Health Status by urban socioeconomic status (%) .............................................................51 Table 14: Members in household ......................................................................................................51 Table 15: Household public good and environment characteristics by urban socioeconomic status (%) .....................................................................................................................................................52 Table 16: Education by Rural/Urban and Gender of Household Head (%) ........................................53 Table 17: Children’s worries by urban socioeconomic status (%) ......................................................54 Table 18: Health risks by gender and rural/urban (%), 15–19 and 15–24 .........................................56 Table 19: Main worries by rural/urban (%), 15–19 and 15–24 ..........................................................58 Table 20: Employment by urban socioeconomic status (%) ..............................................................59 Table 21: Job expectations by rural/urban (%), 15–19 and 15–24 ....................................................60 Table 22: Reasons for not being able to apply training fully/properly by gender and rural/urban (%), 15–24 ................................................................................................................................................62