Federalism & post-conflict statebuilding: The case of Somalia Item Type Thesis Authors Chevreau, Oliver M. Publisher University of Bradford Rights <a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/ by-nc-nd/3.0/"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="http://i.creativecommons.org/l/by- nc-nd/3.0/88x31.png" /></a><br />The University of Bradford theses are licenced under a <a rel="license" href="http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/">Creative Commons Licence</a>. Download date 24/09/2021 12:13:02 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17441 FEDERALISM AND POST-CONFLICT STATEBUILDING: THE CASE OF SOMALIA O.M. CHEVREAU MPhil UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD 201 7 Federalism and post-conflict statebuilding: The case of Somalia Oliver Marc CHEVREAU Submitted for the degree of Master of Philosophy Department of Peace Studies University of Bradford 2017 Abstract Oliver Chevreau, Federalism & post-conflict statebuilding: The case of Somalia Keywords: federalism, post-conflict federalism, classical federalism, Somalia, peacebuilding, statebuilding, consociationalism, decentralisation The use of federalism as an integral component in post-conflict statebuilding processes is becoming increasingly common (e.g. Iraq, Yemen & Sri Lanka). The current academic literature, however, is divided between those that argue that federalism in such fragile environments will increase the likelihood of secession and ‘balkanisation’ and that those that argue that only federalism can provide the periphery with constitutionally protected rights against the centre. However, currently there is little empirical evidence to support either view. This research seeks to contribute to this gap by assessing whether the recent introduction of federalism in Somalia since 2013 has led to the delivery of tangible governance and peacebuilding outcomes. This thesis specifically focuses on the federalism process in Jubaland, a state which formed in 2013. Data was gathered across the region using a statistically significant perception survey and was supplemented by Key Informant Interviews. The surveys were designed to assess public opinion towards federalism and understand how its introduction was perceived to have impacted local governance and conflict dynamics. This analysis was further extended to assess the impact of federalism in other federal member states including Puntland, Galmadug and Southwest based on a review of available secondary literature. An analytical framework assessed the strength of Federal Government-Federal Member State, intra-state and inter-state relations and the extent to which a particular state had undertook tangible governance reforms. The key findings of the research indicate that the population in Jubaland is strongly supportive of federalism in principle and the manner in which it has been implemented. Federalism was seen by the majority of the population as a way of maintaining Somali unity whilst protecting local interests and meeting i local needs. The approach of the Jubaland authorities to adopt a consociational approach to governance led to the establishment of a sustainable political settlement and the inclusion of minority groups for the first time. However, these successes have not been experienced more widely across Somalia. Other federal member states have experienced poor relations with the federal government. Internally, some states also have weak and violent relations with groups who are competing for influence and poor external relationships with other federal member states. In general, there is a low commitment to governance reform at federal-state level. These findings underpin the final conclusion that whilst federalism in Somalia has enabled improved governance and peacebuilding outcomes in Jubaland, it is the manner of how federal governance has been implemented in other federal states that explains the disparity in results across the country as a whole. More widely, this research suggests that federalism in post-conflict contexts is neither a panacea for peace and stability, or in of itself, a catalyst for inevitable fragmentation. ii Contents Abstract ................................................................................................................ i List of Figures ................................................................................................... vii Map: Somalia & Somaliland ............................................................................. viii Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................... 9 Problem Statement .......................................................................................... 9 Motivation for study ....................................................................................... 12 Central & secondary research questions ....................................................... 13 Research approach ....................................................................................... 16 Thesis structure ............................................................................................. 17 Chapter Two: Somalia & ‘The State’ .............................................................. 20 Somalia – A historical summary .................................................................... 20 Pre-colonial Somalia –The centrality of clan and the rise of Islam (pre 1862) .. 20 Colonial Somalia – The brutality of occupation (1862-1960) ............................. 22 The rise and fall of the irredentism (1960-1991) ............................................... 24 Warlordism & failed humanitarian intervention (1991-2001) ............................. 28 Kleptocracy & the rise of violent Islamism (2001-2017) .................................... 31 Historical implications on contemporary statebuilding discourse in Somalia & federalism ...................................................................................................... 34 Strong suspicion of governance systems perceived to be externally imposed . 35 Failure of the unitary state as a model for Somalia ........................................... 35 Norms of political violence & corruption ............................................................ 37 Islamism ............................................................................................................ 38 Clan & tradition ................................................................................................. 38 Conclusion..................................................................................................... 39 Chapter Three - Prospective governance options for Somalia: Federalism, Consociationalism & the Decentralised Unitary State ............................ 41 Federalism..................................................................................................... 41 Classical federalism .......................................................................................... 41 iii Post conflict federalism ..................................................................................... 49 Federalism as an option for Somalia ............................................................. 55 Consociationalism ......................................................................................... 59 Consociationalism as an option for Somalia ..................................................... 62 A decentralised unitary state ......................................................................... 64 A decentralised unitary state as an option for Somalia ..................................... 66 Conclusion..................................................................................................... 68 Chapter Four: The Jubaland Case study ...................................................... 70 Gestation of the Jubaland State .................................................................... 70 Jubaland governance survey......................................................................... 76 Methodology ..................................................................................................... 76 Constraints & limitations ................................................................................... 78 Perspectives on federalism as a governance structure for Jubaland ............ 80 Summary: Perspectives on federalism as a governance structure for Jubaland ...................................................................................................................... 90 Perspectives on the formation and consultation process of the Interim Jubaland Authority ......................................................................................... 91 Summary: Perspectives on the formation and consultation process of the Interim Jubaland Authority ............................................................................ 96 Perspectives on the performance of the Interim Jubaland Authority/Jubaland Authority ........................................................................................................ 96 Summary: Perspectives on the performance of the Interim Jubaland Authority .................................................................................................................... 105 Perspectives on the 2015 Regional Assembly selection process ................ 106 Summary: Perceptions on the 2015 Regional Assembly process ................... 108 Perspectives on the role of the Federal Government of Somalia in the