THE FUTURE OF WORLD POWER: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG CYCLE THEORY Item Type text; Electronic Thesis Authors IVIE, HARRISON MCKINNEY Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 23/09/2021 15:05:38 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/614137 Ivie 1 THE FUTURE OF WORLD POWER: AN ANALYSIS OF LONG CYCLE THEORY By HARRISON MCKINNEY IVIE A Thesis Submitted to the Honors College In Partial Fulfillment of the Bachelors Degree With Honors in Political Science THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA MAY 2016 Approved by: _________________________ Dr. Tom Volgy Department of Political Science Ivie 2 Abstract: In 1498, the Portuguese created an interconnected international system by establishing a maritime trade route between Europe and India. The maritime trade route brought unprecedented economic power to the Portuguese, established Portugal as the first world power, and served as the origin for long-cycle theory. Between 1498 and present day there have been four complete world power cycles and the world is currently in the fifth. The world has systematically transitioned from world power cycle to world power cycle every one hundred to one hundred and twenty years. The United States has been in its world power cycle for the over seventy years since the conclusion of World War II. Using historical, quantitative, and theoretical analysis I have analyzed the United States’ current position, and the positions of China and Russia as potential challengers to the world power of the United States. The results are that neither China or Russia are currently in position to over-take the United States as the world power of the international system. Ivie 3 Introduction The International System The term ‘international system’ is both a noun and an adjective. The international system as a noun refers to all the international actors of the world, and as an adjective it is descriptive of the interconnectedness of all international actors. This paper will utilize long cycle theory to anchor historical observations and hypotheses about the ebb and flow of concentration of power within the international system. When we use the term ‘international system’ we are also making the assumption that the interconnectedness of the world causes the world to operate as a single system rather than as a world made up of regions and states that are isolated from one another. This paper will discuss the origins and history of the interconnected world and why some states have become more powerful than others. This paper will then dissect the present state of the international system, and why the United States will remain as the world power into the foreseeable future. Defining Power The power of individual states will be determined militarily, specifically regarding naval strength; economically, with an emphasis on the ability to control international trade as well as domestic demographics; politically, regarding alliances and coalitions, as well as the sufficiency of domestic political institutions; technologically and level of innovation, specifically by determining if a state has made innovative break-throughs that alter the world; institutionally, regarding whether or not a state has been able to create domestic and international institutions that it derives power from. Throughout history, the militaristic, economic, technological, Ivie 4 political, institutional, and innovative status of a states have been major determinants of the capacity to be powerful states. Notwithstanding it is important to know where to start when assessing who the world’s most powerful states are. Just as the DNA of any given human plays a large role in determining who that human will become regarding their mental or physical capabilities, each state has its own “DNA” that helps us determine its potential capabilities. Among other things, the DNA of each state includes its geographic location and features, the demographics of its population, and the proximity and power of its neighboring states. Long Cycle Theory Before the year 1498, there was no discernable international system and that is because there had never been a true maritime power. The ability to transfer goods, people, and ideas by sea significantly reduces the amount of time required for communication and transportation, and significantly increases the amount that can be transported. This same idea is present today with the fact that it costs $0.17 per container-mile to ship goods by sea versus $2.40 per container- mile to ship goods by tractor trailer across land (Zeihan). Long cycle theory is based on the ability of states to project power with maritime force rather than use of land-based military because the only way to project power around the entire globe requires having a navy and trade network that is capable to do so. In addition to focusing on the maritime power of states, long cycle theory also suggests that there is a single state that is the “world power” of the international system that is responsible for providing order and stability to the international system. More specifically, a world power Ivie 5 supplies leadership and the tools for meeting global problems, and it organizes and coordinates the relationships between the political and other subsystems at the global level (Modelski). Since the first world power cycle began in 1498, the international system has gone through dramatic shifts every 100-120 years, which has always coincided with global war, and has resulted in the beginning of a new world power cycle. This defines the first facet of long cycle theory: recurring cycles. Further, every world power cycle passes through four chronological phases that last 25-30 years each beginning with phase one: global war. At the conclusion of global war, a single powerful state emerges as the most capable to provide order and stability to the international system thus becoming the new world power. At the conclusion of the global war phase, the international system enters phase two of the world power cycle: world power. During the world power phase, the international system is relatively stable and absent of any major global wars. During this period there are no viable challengers to the world power and this allows the world power to project its power with relative ease. Next, the world enters into phase three: delegitimation. During phase three, rising powers within the international system, which are not faced with maintaining the order of the international system, are able to allocate a greater percentage of their resources to developing their domestic economies, militaries, and technology. As the rising powers within the system grow stronger, the demand for international order supplied by the world power wanes and as the strength of the world power and rising powers converge, the cycle eventually enter phase four: deconcentration. During the deconcentration phase the rising powers reach a power parity with the world power. Eventually, one, or multiple, rising powers will emerge as a challenger to the world Ivie 6 power, and this results in global war. It is important to note though that no challenger to the world power has ever become the world power of the next cycle. After the global war concludes the international system returns to phase one of its new world power cycle. While the average length of a world power cycle has been roughly 104 years, each cycle has been equal or greater in the length than the previous cycle, and this leads us to the second facet of long cycle theory: continuous evolution of the international system. The evolutionary tendencies of the international system mean that no two cycles will be exactly alike. The evolution of technology, the evolution of how wars are fought, and the evolution of how power is projected have the ability to alter how the international system functions. Long cycles can be explained by two main forces: entropic decline that is inherent in every order, and the erosion of monopoly power (Modelski). The relationship between the international system and long cycles can be summed up in two points: the recurrence of long cycles every 100-120 years, and the occurrence of irreversible evolution of the international system. Ivie 7 History of World Powers Portugal In 1498, Portugal created the first international maritime trade system. In the late 15th century there were two European states with the capacity to become the world’s first maritime powers: Habsburg Spain and Portugal, and the discovery of the New World opened up myriad opportunities for trade, and accumulation of wealth for both states. In 1494, instead of warring over the newly discovered hemisphere, Spain and Portugal signed the Treaty of Tordesillas, which effectively cut the map of the world in half by way of a north-south meridian that ran halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the island of Hispaniola. The treaty granted the Spanish access to everything west of the meridian, and Portugal everything east of the meridian. While Spain was intent on using its power to colonize the New World and expropriate copious amounts of natural resources, Portugal was more intrigued by cutting the massive costs of obtaining goods in the spice trade from China and India. Less than a decade prior to the Treaty of Tordesillas, Portuguese explorers had discovered a way to potentially undercut the Ottoman monopoly on trade with India: open-sea maritime trade routes. This was thanks to Portuguese explorer, Bartolomeu Dias who, in 1488, was the first European explorer to sail from continental Europe to the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa and then into the Indian Ocean.