Improving U.S.-Pakistan Relations: A View from Pakistani Leaders October 2010 Table of Contents Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 3 Pakistani Concerns and Perceptions about Their Society and its Relationship with the U.S. .............. 3 Pakistani Interest in and Support for the U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum .............................................. 5 Sectors with High Potential for Relationship and Partnership Building .............................................. 5 Potential Participants and Next Steps in US-Pakistan Leaders Forum Development .......................... 8 Partial List of Interviewees Sept. 27-Oct. 1, 2010 ................................................................................ 9 U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum October 2010 2 Introduction The U.S.-Muslim Engagement Initiative (USMEI) is organizing a U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum, to provide a fresh, credible and visible demonstration of mutually beneficial, people-to- people partnerships between the U.S. and Pakistan. Over the next three years, it will bring together diverse leaders who are interested in long-term collaboration in sectors including education, agriculture, media, health and social services, local governance, and energy. Each Forum meeting will focus on one or two sectors, with cross-cutting participation from leaders in media and governance. USMEI Leadership Team Members Aakif Ahmad and David Fairman traveled to Pakistan in late September, 2010 to: • Understand the primary concerns and perceptions of Pakistani leaders about their own society and their relationship with the U.S.; • assess the level of Pakistani leadership interest in and support for the Forum; • identify areas where interest in dialogue and partnership is high; and • identify potential Pakistani participants. During the visit, USMEI staff met with over fifty influential Pakistanis in the fields of media, education, energy, agriculture, finance, health and social services, conflict resolution, national security, local and provincial governance (see attached list). Pakistani Concerns and Perceptions about Their Society and its Relationship with the U.S. During our visit, many Pakistani leaders expressed strong concern on three issues: national and local governance; flood recovery and underlying economic and social challenges; and national security issues. They also expressed a range of views and concerns on Pakistan’s relationship with the U.S. Governance: Nearly all Pakistani leaders we met with expressed strong concern that the current national government and the political system were fragile, unstable, unable to deliver substantial economic or social gains to the people of Pakistan, and too beholden to elite interests and the U.S. to be credible to the majority of Pakistanis. Some leaders were concerned that the unresolved constitutional debate between the current government and the Supreme Court could undermine the basis for civilian governance. Others, however, believed that civilian governance would survive, both because the military does not want to take responsibility for governance and because there is enough maturity in the civilian political leadership to avert a major crisis. Along with their concerns about national governance, a number of leaders expressed great concern that local governance is becoming less effective in providing basic security and social services, less accountable, and more politicized. Though they saw many flaws in the system of elected mayors (nazims) and local councils established under President Musharraf, many of the leaders we met were concerned that the ousting of all mayors and councils and their indefinite replacement by civil service officials (district officers) is compromising one of the only avenues that ordinary Pakistanis had for engaging with elected officials and holding them accountable. U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum October 2010 3 Flood recovery and economic challenges: In the economic and social spheres, most of the leaders we met saw flood recovery as the most significant near-term challenge facing the country. They underscored the seriousness of the problem for farmers: not only have they lost the monsoon crop, but the persistence of waterlogged land means that most will be unable to plant a winter (rabi) crop as well; some land may not be plantable until after the next monsoon. Though the temporary relocation and ongoing return to villages has demonstrated enormous resilience and social support in extended families, the worst social and economic impacts will be felt over the coming year, as farm families find themselves with no income and little support from the government. At the national level, political instability, the national debt and the limited base of strong private sector firms are limiting the potential for growth outside the agriculture sector. However, the strong progress in reform of the energy sector may offer one important avenue for both domestic and foreign investment, if energy prices are in fact allowed to rise to cover the costs of energy service. Security: Concern about the security situation was widespread among the leaders we met. However, their perceptions of primary security challenges varied. For some, the primary concern was the potential that Afghanistan could become strongly allied with India as the U.S. pulls back from the Afghan conflict. For others, the primary concern was domestic insurgency and extremist violence, fueled by, but at least partially independent of, the conflict in Afghanistan. Among those especially concerned about domestic extremism, many made the link between problems of governance, justice and development in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and FATA and the growth of the insurgency. Relations with the U.S.: Most leaders said that the relationship between the Pakistani and U.S. governments was seriously flawed. They perceived the U.S. as actively intervening in and manipulating the domestic political situation in order to maintain Pakistani government support for U.S. counter-insurgency in Afghanistan. Though several expressed appreciation for U.S. help with flood relief, many criticized the U.S. aid program for allowing too much money to flow through political and military channels, creating patronage opportunities without delivering meaningful benefits to the vast majority of Pakistanis. They also criticized their own political leaders for failing to defend Pakistan’s national security and civilian population against U.S. drone strikes and counter-insurgency operations inside Pakistan. At the same time, most of the leaders we met stressed that many Pakistanis still have positive views of the U.S. for its economic opportunities, educational system, culture of hard work and individual responsibility, and personal freedoms. There is, however, a growing generational divide between Pakistanis old enough to remember a more positive climate of relations and societal interaction from the 1960s through the 1980s, and those under forty. For younger Pakistanis, perceptions of the U.S. are primarily shaped by the sense that the U.S. abandoned Pakistan in the 1990s, has favored India in its regional strategies, backed a military strongman while claiming to stand for democracy, and is now using Pakistan to pursue its regional security objectives without regard to the impact on Pakistan’s security, politics and society. They may appreciate some elements of U.S. society and culture, but their overall view of the U.S.—both its government and its people—is strikingly negative. Their fundamental U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum October 2010 4 question is whether there is any real U.S. interest in a relationship with Pakistan that goes beyond counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism. Because they see U.S. governmental aid as a quid pro quo for Pakistani cooperation on security issues, they view all U.S. government efforts to address long-term social and economic issues with considerable skepticism. Pakistani Interest in and Support for the U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum Nearly all of the Pakistani leaders with whom we met expressed strong interest in the idea of a U.S.-Pakistan Leaders Forum to bring civil society leaders together for dialogue and partnership building. Many commented that such an initiative is “long overdue” and “urgently needed” as a way for Pakistanis and Americans outside of government to address negative perceptions, identify areas of common interest and build new partnerships. They stressed that the near-total disappearance of American civil society leaders from Pakistan since 9/11 has dramatically reduced Pakistanis’ ability to see the commonalities and shared interests between our two societies. They saw great potential for visible, people-to-people exchanges and meaningful partnerships to change perceptions through direct engagement. There was strong support for the idea of using the Forum both as an incubator for new relationships and partnerships in several fields, and as a way to communicate to the public in both societies that there is great potential for constructive partnerships, not driven by their two governments. Many Pakistani leaders also urged that the Forum be used as a forum for constructive engagement, and where appropriate, constructive criticism of the intergovernmental relationship. Sectors with High Potential for Relationship and Partnership Building Before our trip, we spoke with a number of American leaders and experts who are well-informed