NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT REGIONAL TECHNICAL INPUT REPORT SERIES Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) Edited by: Victoria W. Keener John J. Marra Melissa L. Finucane Deanna Spooner Margaret H. Smith Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts Report for the 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) Washington | Covelo | London © 2012 The Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) All rights reserved under International and Pan-American Copyright Conventions. Reproduction of this report by electronic means for personal and noncommercial purposes is permitted as long as proper acknowledgment is included. Users are restricted from photocopying or mechanical reproduction as well as creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the prior written permission of the publisher. ISLAND PRESS is a trademark of the Center for Resource Economics. Printed on recycled, acid-free paper Manufactured in the United States of America Note: This technical input document in its current form does not represent a Federal document of any kind and should not be interpreted as the position or policy of any Federal, State, Local, or Tribal Government or Non-Governmental entity Citation: Keener, V. W., Marra, J. J., Finucane, M. L., Spooner, D., & Smith, M. H. (Eds.). (2012). Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts. Report for The 2012 Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press. To cite specific information, please use the citation at the beginning of each chapter. Keywords: Climate change, climate variability, Pacific islands, freshwater resources, hydrology, drought, flooding, coastal inundation, sea-level rise, adaptation, island ecosystems, climate modeling, ENSO, data and monitoring, fisheries, climate risks, downscaling, extreme events, climate change indicators, atolls, coral reefs, decision making, natural resource management About This Series This report is published as one of a series of technical inputs to the National Climate Assessment (NCA) 2013 report. The NCA is being conducted under the auspices of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which requires a report to the President and Con- gress every four years on the status of climate change science and impacts. The NCA in- forms the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates scientific informa- tion from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. Findings from the NCA provide input to federal science priorities and are used by U.S. citizens, communities, and businesses as they create more sustainable and environmentally sound plans for the nation’s future. In fall 2011, the NCA requested technical input from a broad range of experts in aca- demia, private industry, state and local governments, non-government organizations, professional societies, and impacted communities, with the intent of producing a better informed and more useful report in 2013. In particular, the eight NCA regions, as well as the Coastal and the Ocean biogeographical regions, were asked to contribute technical input reports highlighting past climate trends, projected climate change, and impacts to specific sectors in their regions. Each region established its own process for developing this technical input. The lead authors for related chapters in the 2013 NCA report, which will include a much shorter synthesis of climate change for each region, are using these technical input reports as important source material. By publishing this series of region- al technical input reports, Island Press hopes to make this rich collection of information more widely available. This series includes the following reports: Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impacts Coastal Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerabilities Great Plains Regional Technical Input Report Climate Change in the Midwest: A Synthesis Report for the National Climate Assessment Climate Change in the Northeast: A Sourcebook Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities Oceans and Marine Resources in a Changing Climate Climate of the Southeast United States: Variability, Change, Impacts, and Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States Electronic copies of all reports can be accessed on the Climate Adaptation Knowledge Exchange (CAKE) website at www.cakex.org/NCAreports. Printed copies and e-book ver- sions are available for sale on the Island Press website at www.islandpress.org/NCAreports. v About This Report Climate Change and Pacific Islands: Indicators and Impactsis a report developed by the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA) aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about climate change indicators, impacts, and adaptive capacity of the Hawaiian archi- pelago and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI). The PIRCA is a collaborative effort engaging federal, state, and local government agencies, non-government organizations, academia, businesses, and community groups to inform and prioritize their activities in the face of a changing climate. The immediate focus has been on bringing together almost 100 scientific experts and practitioners to generate an integrated report to provide a regional contribution to the National Climate Assessment (NCA), which is conducted under the United States Global Change Research Act of 1990. The PIRCA report examines the adaptive capac- ity of Pacific Island communities regarding climate change effects on freshwater avail- ability and quality; regional and community economies; urbanization, transportation, and infrastructure vulnerabilities; ecosystem services; ocean resource sustainability and coastal zone management; and cultural resources. The initial PIRCA activities were conducted August 2011 through February 2012 and included multiple dialogues and three workshops to facilitate sharing, analyzing, and reporting on scientific consensus, knowledge gaps, sectoral needs, and adaptive capac- ity for addressing the changing climate. The material presented in this report is based largely on published research. The report was reviewed and approved by the PIRCA Steering Committee, and workshop participants were invited to comment on the draft report. Several reviewers independent of the PIRCA process also provided comments. Partners Primary oversight of the PIRCA is being carried out jointly by representatives from the Pacific Regional Inte grated Sciences and Assessments (Pacific RISA) program (funded by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, and supported through the East-West Center); NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) and National Cli matic Data Center (NCDC); the Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS); and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Coopera- tive (PICCC). Other key contribu tors include the NOAA National Ocean Service; NOAA Pacific Services Center; NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center; NOAA Center for Operational Ocean ographic Products and Services; NOAA Coastal Storms Program; NOAA Coastal Services Center; NOAA National Marine Fisher ies Service; Pacific Risk Management ‘Ohana (PRiMO); United States Geological Survey Pacific Islands Water Science Center; United States Fish and Wildlife Service; University of Hawai‘i (UH) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology Department of Oceanography; UH International Pacific Research Center; UH Sea Level Center; UH Sea Grant and the Cen- ter for Island Climate Adaptation and Policy; University of Guam Water and Environ- mental Research Institute; and the Western Regional Climate Center. This report represents the beginning of a sustained process of assessment and vii viii CLIMATE CHANGE AND PACIFIC ISLANDS: INDICATORS AND IMPACTS information exchange among scientists, businesses, governments, and communities in the Pacific Islands region. We anticipate that in conjunction with other collaborative re- gional assessment efforts, this report will provide guidance for decision makers want- ing to better understand how climate variability and change impact the Pacific Islands region and its peoples. Organization of this Report Specific chapters of the report provide: • An overview of the Pacific Islands region, including regional geology, island communities and environments, climate variability, and climate change indica- tors, projections, and impacts (Chapter 1) • A description of historical trends, projections, and impacts related to freshwater and drought (Chapter 2), sea-level rise and coastal inundation (Chapter 3), and marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems (Chapter 4) • A discussion of conclusions (Chapter 5) Additional details on aspects of the PIRCA process are contained in appendices that describe the Core Scientific Team, Steering Committee, workshops, and participants’ evaluations of the workshops. This report necessarily explores only a small subset of the range of potential climate impacts, due to resource and time constraints. Future assessments by the federal gov- ernment, individual jurisdictions, and regional and local organizations will deepen our understanding of climate change indicators, impacts, and needed solutions. Acknowledgments Funding for the project was provided by the NOAA Climate Program Office for the Pacific