SCIENCE & TECHNOtO~ April, 1974 computers Vo l. 23, No.4 and people formerly Computers and Automation EARLY SPRING IN THIS ISSUE: Step-Wide Management Controls - William E. McMillen Behavioral Factors in Information Systems - CharlesJ. Testa Managing Modern Complexity, Part 1 - Dr. Stafford Beer Magpoints: Two New Symbols for Space Age Mathematics - Myron J. Brown and Ms. Betsy Ancker-Johnson Computing Facilities at Stanford University - Prof. Gene F. Franklin The Assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., Part 3 - Wayne Chastain P 7 50l ? IF YOU COULD PREVENT JUST ONE IMPORTANT MISTAKE BEFORE IT HAPPENED· • • HOW MUCH WOULD THAT BE WORTH TO YOU - $100? - $1000? more? Our considered estimate is that 10 to 20% or more of the cost of operation of most businesses is the cost of mistakes. WOULDN'T YOU AGREE THAT SENSE, COMMON AND UNCOMMON, OUGHT TO BE THE KEY TO PREVENTING MISTAKES? We examine systematically the prevention of mistakes in '\ The Notebook on COMMON SENSEI ELEMENTARY AND ADVANCED \)) ',,; " 'I.-. , Topic: Topic: PURPOSES: THE SYSTEMATIC SYSTEMATIC EXAMINATION PREVENTION OF MISTAKES OF GENERAL CONCEPTS Already Published Already Published Preventing Mistakes from: The Concept of: Failure to Understand Expert Forgetting Rationalizing Unforeseen Hazards Feedback Placidity Model Camouflage and Deception Black Box To Come Evolution Niche Preventing Mistakes from: Bias To Come Interpretation Strategy Distraction U nd ersta nd i ng Gullibility Teachable Moment Indeterminacy COMPUTERS are important - Failure to Observe But the computer field is over 25 years old. Here is a new Failure to Inspect System field where you can get in on the ground floor to make Prejudice .... Operational Definition .... your mark. MATHEMATICS is important - AND MANY MORE TOPICS .... But this field is more important than mathematics, because common sense, wisdom, and general science have more .- - - - - - - - - . - .••.. (may be copied on any piece of paper) .•...•........' .....•• applications. To: Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. WISDOM is important - ': 815 Washington St., Newtonville, MA 02160 This field can be reasonably called "the engineering of ) Yes, please enter my subscription to The Notebook on Common wisdom". Sense, Elementary and Advanced at $12 a year (24 issues), plus COMMON SENSE is important - extras. I understand that you always begin at the beginning This field includes the systematic study and development of and so I shall not miss any issues. common sense. SCIENCE is important - ) Please send me as free premiums for subscribing: This field includes what is common to all the sciences, what , 1. Right Answers - A Short Guide to Obtaining Them 4. Strategy in Chess 2. The Empty Column 5. The Barrels and the Elephant is generally true and important in the sciences. , 3. The Golden Trumpets of Yap Yap 6. The Argument of the Beard MISTAKES are costly and to be AVOIDED - ( ) I enclose $ ) Please bill my organization This field includes the systematic study of the prevention of mistakes. RETURNABLE IN 7 DAYS FOR FULL REFUND IF NOT SATISFACTORY MONEY is important - HOW CAN YOU LOSE? The systematic prevention of mistakes in your organization Name ______________ Title _______~ might save 10 to 20% of its expenses per year. Organization ______________________ OPPORTUNITY is important - If you enter or renew your subscription to both Computers Address (including zip) ____________________ and People and The Notebook on Common Sense at Signature ____________ Purchase Order No. the same time, direct to us, - you may take off $2.00 ---- per year from the total cost. 2 COMPUTERS and PEOPLE for April, 1974, -~. NOW PUBLISHED ...-- "RIDE THE EAST WIND: I \))~ l~--:±:::::============--__ ,.......--_....... 'V-' UlJ) Parables of Yesterday and Today" I---~ )Kct U~===-_) ---::::;;~l'~ltl f. --C-:::)I=====1 by Edmund C. Berkeley, editor, _~\,.)...1.1 anthologist, and author Partial Table of Contents Part 1. The Condition of Man Pandora and the Mysterious Box / H. A. Guerber The Garden of Paradise* / Hans Christian Andersen *to which the King's son was transported by the East Wind The History of the Doasyoulikes / Charles Kingsley The Locksmith and the Stranger / Edmund C. Berkeley (B) The Elephant and the Donkey / James Reston The Fire Squirrels / B , Part 2. On Flattery and Persuasion .I.' 'r~ The Cuckoo and the Eagle / Ivan A. Kriloff (, The Lion in Love / Aesop The Crow and the Mussel/Aesop, B The Two Raccoons and the Button / B Part 3. On Perseverance and Resourcefulness THE TWO RACCOONS AND THE BUTTON The Crow and the Pitcher / Aesop George Raccoon: Oh, darn, there's a button off my shirt. Rob"ert Bruce and the Spider / Sir Walter Scott Martha Raccoon: My dear, see if there isn't another shirt in Hannibal Mouse and the Other End of the World / B your drawer that you can wear. George: (searching) No, there isn't. That's the only clean white The Fly, the Spider, and the Hornet / B shirt; all the others are gray. And I have to wear a white shirt to­ Part 4. Behavior - Moral and Otherwise day; there's a meeting this morning with Mr. Wolf and Mr. Fox - we have a problem with the Bears, you know. A Small Wharf of Stones / Benjamin Franklin Martha: I'm sure there is another white shirt. (She comes and The Three Bricklayers / B searches the drawer.) Well, there isn't one, you're right. Do you The Fisherman, the Farmer, and the Peddler / B have the button? George: Yes, here it is. Oh, Martha, are you going to sew it Part 5. The Problem of Truth on for me right now? You're amazing, you're wonderful! On Being a Reasonable Creature / Benjamin Franklin Martha: Give me the button. (She swiftly sews the button on the white shirt, while he waits patiently.) There's your shirt. The Empty Column / William J. Wiswesser George: Oh, thank you - you're my dear Martha. You're the The Six B lind Men of Nepal / B best and nicest help a Raccoon could ask for. I just don't know The Sighting of a Whale / B what I'd do without you. The Stars and the Young Rabbit / B Martha: (smiling) I know what you'd do, you big Raccoon - The Ocean of Truth / Sir Isaac Newton you'd sew it on yourself, just as you used to before you married me - and you'd save all that flattery. Part 6. On Common Sense George: (giving her a Raccoon hug) Not flattery, my dear - persuasion! :" The Lark and her Young Ones / Aesop " The Bear and the Young Dog / B The Bear and the Young Calf / B Persuade him with kindly gifts and gentle words. - Homer, 850 B. C The Wasps and the Honey Pot / Sir Roger l'Estrange Persuasion's only shrine is eloquent speech. The Six-Day War and the Gulf of Dong / B - Aristophanes, 405 B.C Missile Alarm from Grunelandt / B The National Security of Adularia / B . - - - - - - - - - - - - (may be copied on any piece of paper) --------- -- - - - - - - - - " Doomsday in St. Pierre, Martinique / B : To: Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. Part 7. Problem Solving 815 Washington St., Dept. R21, Newtonville, MA 02160· • ( ) Please send me ___ copy(ies) of Ride the East Wind: The Wolf and" the Dog of Sherwood / Aesop, B Parables of Yesterday and Today (now published) by The Three Earthworms / B Edmund C. Berkeley, Author and Anthologist. I en­ The Hippopotamus and the Bricks / B close $7.25 (Publication price + Postage and Handling) The Cricket that Made Music / Jean de La Fontaine, B per copy. The Fox of Mt. Etna and the Grapes / B Total enclosed __ (Prepayment is necessary) The Mice of Cambridge in Council/Aesop, B RETURNABLE IN 10 DAYS FOR FULL REFUND Brer Badger's Old Motor Car that Wouldn't Go / B IF NOT SATISFACTORY The Evening Star and the Princess / B My name and address are attached. COMPUTERS and PEOPLE for April. 1974 3 Vol. 23, No.4 April,1974 Editor Edmund C. Berkeley computers formerly Computers and Automation Assistant Barbara L. Chaffee and people Editors Linda Ladd Lovett Neil D. Macdonald Art Director Grace C. Hertlein Software Stewart B. Nelson Editor Advertising Edmund C. Berkeley Management of Computer Systems Director 8 Step-Wide Management Controls [A] by William E. McMillen, Director, Management Information Contributing John Bennett .I. Editors Moses M. Berlin Services, Questor Corp., Toledo, Ohio Andrew D. Booth The methods for accomplishing "successful completion or John W. Carr III orderly restructuring or timely abandonment" of projects Ned Chapin - these are "step-wide management controls". What do Ted Schoeters these objectives imply, and how carry them out? Richard E. Sprague Design of Computer Systems Advisory Ed Burnett Committee James J. Cryan 10 Computing Facilities at Stanford University: Their [A] Bernard Quint Development and Direction by Prof. Gene F. Franklin, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif. Editorial Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. How one can go from a rather wasteful collection of different Offices 815 Washington St. computing facilities into a streamlined single facility that does Newtonville, MA 02160 more for less money: "cheaper by the dozen". 617-332-5453 13 Behavioral Factors in Information Systems [A] by Asst. Prof. Charles J. Testa, College of Business and Public Advertising The Publisher Administration, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, Md. Contact Berkeley Enterprises, Inc. A survey of what influences perception, cognition, creativity, 815 Washington St. rationality, patience, and other factors, when dealing with Newtonville, MA 02160 617-332-5453 computerized information systems for management. 33 Digital Processes - A New International Journal on the [F] Theory and Design of Digital Systems by Heinz Georgi, Managing Director, Delta Publishing Co., "Computers and People," formerly "Computers and Automation," is published Ltd., Vevey, Switzerland monthly, 12 issues per year, at 815 Washing­ ton St., Newtonville, MA 02160, by Berkeley Computers and Society Enterprises, Inc. Printed in U.S.A. Second Class Postage paid at Boston, MA, and addi­ 18 Managing Modern Complexity - Part 1 [A] tional mailing points.