Global Security: A Broader Concept for the 21st Century Twenty-first International Worksho p on Global Security Berlin, Ger many 7-10 May 2004 German Minister of Defense Peter Struck, MdB Keynote Address With addresses by: Ambassador William Burns, U.S. Ambassador to NATO General Harald Kujat, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee General James L. Jones, Supreme Allied Commander Europe General George Joulwan, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe Mr. Rainer Hertrich, EADS co-CEO and Workshop Honorary Chairman His Excellency Ioan Mircea Pascu, Romanian Minister of Defense The Honor able Michael Wynne, U.S. Under Secre tar y of Defense Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon, Work shop Chair man Anne D. Baylon (Ed.) Front cover: Ger man Min is ter of Defense Peter Struck's Key note Address to the Twenty-first Inter na - tional Work shop. Pho tog raph by Jean Lee. Back cover: Photography by Jean Lee. © 2004 Cen ter for Stra tegic Deci sion Research Inter na tional Book Stan dard Num ber: 1-890664-10-3 Printed in the United States of Amer ica by House of Print ing, Moun tain View, Cal i for nia Center for Strate gic Deci sion Research and Stra te gic Deci sions Press 2456 Sharon Oaks Drive, Menlo Park, Cal i for nia 94025 U.S.A. Tele phone: 650/854-4751 Fax: 650/854-0761 email: [email protected] with appreciation His Excellency Peter Struck, MdB Minister of Defense of the Federal Republic of Germany Keynote Speaker of the Twenty-first International Workshop on Global Security the twenty-first international workshop on global security is presented by: center for strategic decision research with special thanks to the federal republic of germany principal sponsors BDLI (German Aerospace Industries Association) Rolls-Royce Deutschland Ltd & Co. KG Liebherr Aerospace Lindenberg GmbH Airbus Deutschland GmbH Military Aircraft, EADS Deutschland GmbH ILA (2004 Berlin Air Show) EADS (European Aeronautic Defense and Space Company) Northrop Grumman Corporation Office of the U.S. Secretary of Defense Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics Assistant Secretary of Defense (Networks and Information Integration) Defense Threat Reduction Agency Net Assessment National Defense University major sponsors Alenia Aeronautica S.p.A. The Boeing Company General Dynamics Corporation MITRE Corporation Silicon Graphics, Inc. associate sponsor: Iridium Satellite LLC acknowledgements to past host and sponsoring governments Czech Republic Kingdom of Denmark Federal Republic of Germany Republic of Greece Republic of Hungary Kingdom of the Netherlands Kingdom of Norway Republic of Poland Republic of Portugal Ministry of Defense of Austria Ministry of Defense of Italy Canadian Armed Forces Ta ble of Con tents Spon sors ix Con tri bu tors xv Wel com ing Re marks xix Gen eral George A. Joulwan Open ing Ad dress xxi Mr. Rainer Hertrich EU RO PEAN CON TRI BU TIONS.................................................................................................................................................xxi TRANS AT LAN TIC CON TRI BU TIONS ..................................................................................................................................xxii NATO’S ROLE...............................................................................................................................................................................xxiii Invi ta tion to the Berlin Air Show xxv Mr. Hans-Joachim Gante Pref ace xxvii Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon Over view: Per spec tives on Global Se cu rity xxxiii Dr. Roger Weissinger-Baylon NEW KINDS OF GLOBAL STRA TE GIC THREATS........................................................................................................xxxiv RE SPOND ING TO THE NEW DAN GERS...........................................................................................................................xxxv THE NEAR-TERM: KOSOVO, AF GHANI STAN , AND IRAQ......................................................................................xxxvi THE LON GER TERM: MIDDLE EAST, RUS SIA, BLACK SEA, CAU CA SUS, UKRAINE, & CHINA............xxxix THE WAY AHEAD: A FEW SUG GESTIONS ..........................................................................................................................xl FAC ING THE FU TURE TO GETHER.......................................................................................................................................xlii Part One 1. Keynote Ad dress 3 His Ex cel lency Dr. Pe ter Struck, MdB THE NEW WORLD OR DER...........................................................................................................................................................3 A NEW AP PROACH TO SE CU RITY............................................................................................................................................4 RE QUIRED SE CU RITY-RE LATED AC TION ...........................................................................................................................5 CON CLUD ING RE MARKS .............................................................................................................................................................9 xiv Table of Contents 2. The New NATO and Global Se cu rity 11 Am bas sa dor Nich o las Burns OPEN ING RE MARKS.....................................................................................................................................................................11 THE CON TIN U ING NEED FOR NATO ..................................................................................................................................11 NATO’S TRANS FOR MA TION.....................................................................................................................................................12 CON TIN U ING BROAD-BASED TRANS AT LAN TIC CO OP ER A TION ...........................................................................13 NATO GOALS...................................................................................................................................................................................14 ROAD BLOCKS TO STRONG U.S.-EU RO PEAN RE LA TION SHIPS ..................................................................................16 3. The North At lan tic Al li ance: A Vec tor of Peace, Sta bil ity, and Se cu rity 19 Gen eral Harald Kujat OPEN ING RE MARKS.....................................................................................................................................................................19 SET TING THE SCENE..................................................................................................................................................................19 TRANS FORM ING NATO’S MIL I TARY CA PA BIL I TIES......................................................................................................20 THE AL LI ANCE IN AF GHAN I STAN.....................................................................................................................................21 THE SE CU RITY IM PLI CA TIONS OF DRUG TRAF FICK ING ............................................................................................21 NATO EN LARGE MENT ..............................................................................................................................................................22 STRENGTH EN ING THE TRANS AT LAN TIC LINK............................................................................................................22 NATO-EU RE LA TIONS.................................................................................................................................................................22 THE U.S.–EU ROPE TECH NOL OGY GAP ...............................................................................................................................22 EX PAND ING PEACE AND STA BIL ITY BE YOND EU ROPE...........................................................................................23 THE EAPC.........................................................................................................................................................................................23 THE PFP .............................................................................................................................................................................................24 THE MED I TER RA NEAN DI A LOGUE....................................................................................................................................24 RUS SIA AND UKRAINE...............................................................................................................................................................24 4. Prague To Is tan bul: Am bition Versus Re al ity 27 SACEUR Gen eral James L. Jones STEPS TO WARD TRANS FOR MA TION ...................................................................................................................................27 THE FOUR PILLARS OF TRANS FOR MATION ....................................................................................................................28 CHAL LENGES TO THE TRANS FOR MA TION PRO CESS.................................................................................................28 CON CLUD ING RE MARKS ...........................................................................................................................................................30 5. Se curi ty Chal lenges of Souther n Eu