GROUND WATER RECHARGE MODEL: CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION FOR REMOTELY-SENSED DUAL COEFFICIENT (RDC) GMA8 ET ESTIMATION TWDB CONTRACT NO. 1004831114 FOR: THE TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD AUGUST 9, 2012 ALEXANDRA KIRK, DAVID GROENEVELD, DAVE BARZ, JOANNA HERRING, AND SCOTT MURRAY 1 Ground Water Recharge Model: Calibration and Validation for Remotely-Sensed Dual Coefficient (RDC) GMA8 ET Estimation TWDB Contract No. 1004831114 Prepared For: The Texas Water Development Board August 9, 2012 Prepared by: Alexandra Kirk, David Groeneveld, Dave Barz, Joanna Herring, and Scott Murray 2 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................................................. 2 1. GMA8 SITE DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................................. 2 2. RELATIONAL GROUNDWATER RECHARGE MODEL CONCEPT ........................................... 3 3. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 4 3. ACKNOWLEGEMENTS........................................................................................................................ 8 A1. DRIVING MODEL VARIABLES .....................................................................................................A2 A2. MODELING PRECIPITATION........................................................................................................A2 A2.1. 50-YEAR PRECIPITATION RECORD..................................................................................................A3 A2.2. PRISM VERSUS RAINFALL KRIGED FROM TEXAS DIGITAL CLIMATE ATLAS..................................A3 A3. MODELING ET0 .................................................................................................................................A5 A3.1 RECENT METEOROLOGIC RECORD ...................................................................................................A6 A3.2 OPTIMIZATION OF PRECIPITATION-ET0 MODEL ...............................................................................A7 A3.3. MODEL IMPLEMENTATION & TESTING............................................................................................A9 A4. SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................A10 B. SITE CHARACTERIZATION: GAGED WATERSHEDS AND SOIL PERMEABILITY ..........B2 B1. PERMEABILITY DATASET ............................................................................................................B2 B1.1 ANALYSIS OF SOILS DATA IN STATSGO ........................................................................................B3 B1.2 REDUCTION OF MULTI-LAYER SOIL DATABASE TO A SINGLE REPRESENTATIVE LAYER .................B4 B1.3 AWP FOR SHALLOW SOILS AND/OR HIGHLY VARIABLE PERMEABILITY .........................................B5 B1.4 PROOFING STATSGO......................................................................................................................B6 B1.4.1 ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—TRINITY AQUIFER ...................................................................B7 B1.4.2. ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—EDWARDS-TRINITY (PLATEAU)..............................................B8 B1.4.3. ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—EDWARDS BALCONES FAULT ZONE .......................................B9 B1.4.4 ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—NACATOCH AQUIFER ............................................................B10 B.1.5. ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—WOODBINE AQUIFER..............................................................B11 B.1.6. ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—BLOSSOM AQUIFER ................................................................B12 B.1.7. ANALYSIS OF STATSGO DATA—PALEOZOIC AQUIFERS............................................................B13 B2. INDIVIDUAL WATERSHED Q DATA, THE BASIS FOR CALIBRATING FOR PERM......B14 B2.1. SELECTING REPRESENTATIVE WATERSHEDS ................................................................................B14 B2.2. PROCESSING INDIVIDUAL WATERSHED DATA...............................................................................B15 B3. SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................B18 C. CALIBRATING RINFIL: SPATIAL EXTRAPOLATION OF DISCHARGE ..................................C2 C1. ESTIMATING RINIFL—WHAT CONSTITUTES “SURFACE WATER” LOSS..........................C2 C2. CODIFYING Q RELATIONSHIPS ..................................................................................................C4 C2.1. LINEARIZATION OF Q DATA ............................................................................................................C5 C2.2. Q RELATIONSHIPS DEFINED BY PPT/ET0.........................................................................................C7 C3. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION OF Q....................................................................................C8 C3.1 MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF Q FOR UNIQUE DISCHARGE REGIONS...................................C9 C3.2. ASSEMBLING THE Q REGRESSION .................................................................................................C10 C3.3. EVALUATION OF Q THROUGH CONFIRMATION FOR EACH REGION................................................C12 C4. SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................C12 4 D. REMOTELY-SENSED DUAL COEFFICIENT (RDC) ET ESTIMATION FOR GMA8.............D2 D1. INTRODUCTION TO THE RDC METHOD ..................................................................................D2 D2. MAKING MODIS NDVI EQUIVALENT TO LANDSAT TM5 NDVI .........................................D4 D3. PROCESSING MODIS IMAGES FOR ESTIMATION OF ET.....................................................D6 D4. SUMMARY..........................................................................................................................................D8 E. RDC PARAMETERS—VALIDATION AND CALIBRATION.......................................................E2 E.1 SITE DESCRIPTIONS AND ANALYSIS PROCEDURES ............................................................E3 E.2 ETA BY VEGETATION CLASS.......................................................................................................E5 E.2.1 WOODY VEGETATION—THE FORESTED ETA CLASS....................................................................... E7 E.2.2 HERBACEOUS VEGETATION—THE GRASSLAND ET CLASS ............................................................. E8 E.2.3 CROPS ET CLASS ............................................................................................................................ E9 E3. SUMMARY........................................................................................................................................E10 F. APPLICATION OF ETA ESTIMATION ........................................................................................... F2 F1. SELECTION OF REPRESENTATIVE ETA MODEL YEARS..................................................... F3 F2. MODIS NDVI* PROCESSING AND ETA QUARTERLY INPUT VARIABLES ....................... F4 F3. GAP ETA CLASSES AND THEIR APPLICATION ....................................................................... F5 F4. QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL ETA FOR REPRESENTATIVE WET AND DRY YEARS....... F6 F5. INTERMEDIATE YEAR ETA BY SLOPE BETWEEN WET AND DRY YEARS ETA............ F8 F6. LINEAR RELATIONSHIP OF ETA TO PRECIPITATION STORED PER PIXEL................ F11 F7. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................ F11 G. MODELING URBANIZED AREAS.................................................................................................. G2 G1. HISTORIC URBAN BOUNDARIES ............................................................................................... G2 G2. NDVI* RATIO.................................................................................................................................... G5 G3. DYNAMIC URBAN Q....................................................................................................................... G6 G4. DYNAMIC URBAN ETA.................................................................................................................. G7 G5. SUMMARY......................................................................................................................................... G9 H1. MATING ALL MODEL DATABASES ........................................................................................... H2 H2. HIGH PPT / ET0 GWR ADJUSTMENTS ....................................................................................... H4 H2.2 THEORETICAL BEHAVIOR OF GWR UNDER HIGH PPT/ET0 ...............................................................H5 H2.2 HIGH PPT/ET0 ADJUSTMENTS ..........................................................................................................H6 H.2.2 EXTRAPOLATING GWR PREDICTIONS FOR VERY YEARS WITH HIGH PPT/ET .................................H7 H3. FINAL GWR ESTIMATES .............................................................................................................. H9 H3.1 GWR PLATEAU AND BLENDED MODEL RESULTS ............................................................................H9