Document no: Classification: Official Sensitive IMS Level: Date: 07/02/19 Version: East West Rail – Phase 2 Outline Business Case (Draft final) For internal use only. Do not share this document with other parties without written authorisation from East West Railway Company. Uncontrolled when printed. 1 Document history Document no: Classification: IMS Level: Version Date Reason for issue Prepared By Reviewed By Approved by V1 31/01/19 Collated draft for DG [text redacted [ text redacted review under FOI under FOI section 40] section 40] V2 08/02/19 Incorporating PPM [text redacted CoE, financial CoE, under FOI and additional DfT section 40] comments DRAFT East West Railway Company 2 Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary .......................................................................................................................... 5 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................. 5 Background ....................................................................................................................................... 5 Strategic Case ................................................................................................................................... 5 Economic Case .................................................................................................................................. 9 Financial case .................................................................................................................................. 11 Management case .......................................................................................................................... 11 Commercial case ............................................................................................................................ 12 2. Strategic Case ................................................................................................................................. 14 The Scheme .................................................................................................................................... 14 Central Section ............................................................................................................................... 16 The strategic case for investment in EWR ...................................................................................... 17 Economic growth and the role of EWR .......................................................................................... 18 Housing and the role of EWR ......................................................................................................... 20 Transport and the role of EWR ....................................................................................................... 21 Strategic Objectives for EWR Phase 2 ............................................................................................ 22 How EWR Phase 2 meets the strategic objectives ......................................................................... 23 Local policy support ........................................................................................................................ 25 The preferred route and train services .......................................................................................... 26 Constraints ..................................................................................................................................... 29 Interdependencies ......................................................................................................................... 31 Oxford to Cambridge Expressway .................................................................................................. 33 Benefits and costs .......................................................................................................................... 34 3. Economic Case ................................................................................................................................ 38 Approach ........................................................................................................................................ 38 Growth scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 39 Appraisal results ............................................................................................................................. 40 Sensitivity tests ............................................................................................................................... 41 Changes in BCR compared to OBCv1 (June 2018) .......................................................................... 42 Passenger growth ........................................................................................................................... 43 Train service specification .............................................................................................................. 43 Train service specification deliverability ........................................................................................ 43 Oxford to Cambridge Expressway .................................................................................................. 44 Capital costs.................................................................................................................................... 45 Whole life costs .............................................................................................................................. 45 Operating costs .............................................................................................................................. 46 DRAFT East West Railway Company 3 Environmental benefits and disbenefits ........................................................................................ 47 Other wider impacts ....................................................................................................................... 47 4. Financial Case ................................................................................................................................. 49 Purpose ........................................................................................................................................... 49 Capital Costs ................................................................................................................................... 49 Operating Costs .............................................................................................................................. 52 Funding Cover ................................................................................................................................. 54 Known changes since GRIP 3 .......................................................................................................... 58 Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 58 5. Management Case .......................................................................................................................... 60 Overview......................................................................................................................................... 60 Governance .................................................................................................................................... 69 Programme plan and dependencies .............................................................................................. 72 Change control ............................................................................................................................... 78 Programme reporting ..................................................................................................................... 78 Risk management ........................................................................................................................... 80 Contingency plan ............................................................................................................................ 85 Assurance and approvals ................................................................................................................ 85 Communications and stakeholder management ........................................................................... 89 Benefits realisation plan ................................................................................................................. 90 Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 91 6. Commercial Case ............................................................................................................................ 93 Purpose ........................................................................................................................................... 93 Strategic Objectives ........................................................................................................................ 94 Output based specification ............................................................................................................ 95 Procurement Strategy and Sourcing Options ................................................................................. 96 Payment ........................................................................................................................................