Is Indian real estate heading towards a tectonic shift? July 2015 2 IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 1 Introduction 4P’s of real estate – the pillars of transition • Players • Process • Product 2 • Places Office real estate sector • Migration to peripheral business districts has accelerated • Real estate will see greater participation of Private Equity and institutional investors 3 • Occupier profile undergoes a transition Retail real estate sector • Frequent churn – a new norm in retail malls • Malls witness a divide: successful versus unsuccessful 4 • New breed of retailers to drive demand for quality retail supply Contents IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 3 Residential real estate sector • Apartment sizes are falling in order to suit affordability of buyers • Branded residences have slowly caught the attention of richer Indians; trend appears lasting • Definition of basic amenities has expanded even for mid-segment to affordable housing 5 • New concepts in residential: senior Living, service apartments and studio apartments Industrial real estate sector • Traditional godowns making way for modern warehousing 6 • Changing business environment to reshuffle location criteria for warehouses Current innovations lay foundation for future transitions • New breed of developers • Rising prominence of CRE team within office occupiers • Consistent rise in real estate market transparency appears likely 7 • A ‘green building’ movement is underway in India 8 Conclusion 4 IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? Introduction1 IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 5 An industry that is relatively new compared to the banking, finance, manufacturing, consumer goods and others, the Indian real estate sector has not seen many business cycles in the pre liberalisation era. However, post the economic liberalisation of 1991 during the IT boom in the last decade (2000s), the sector has witnessed two business cycles. The latest cycle (2005-10) ended up with a lot of learnings for the stakeholders, and has made the sector relatively more mature and transparent. In that sense, the last 10 years has been quite dynamic, as each of the fundamental 4Ps of real estate – Players, Processes, Product and Places – witnessed plethora of changes. The core sectors of Office, Retail, Residential and Industrial have independently witnessed changes of their own. Office markets have witnessed a transition in terms of moving out of the central business districts (CBDs) to secondary business districts (SBDs) and peripheral business districts (PBDs) in search for value, while corporate The last 10 years has been quite occupiers' profile have become more diverse or less concentrated dynamic, as each of the fundamental within few industries. Changing consumer preferences and entry of 4Ps of real estate – Players, Processes, more international retailers have made the retail sector complex and Product and Places – witnessed dynamic. Consequently, there is now a divide between malls that plethora of changes. could adapt to the new dynamism and those that cannot. On the other hand, residential sector is finding its own ways of evolving through experimentation with concepts such as compact homes, branded homes, senior living, and serviced and studio apartments. The on-going transition within the real estate sector offers us a foretaste of what the near future beholds. We foresee sweeping changes in the way real estate developers conduct their business, particularly looking at the innovative practices and agility of certain new breed of developers. Corporate real estate teams will have to become more adept and skilful in order to make the most of the upcoming transition, and bring to light a rewarding portfolio for their companies. For homebuyers, the recent changes and future transition will bring about a more transparent market that is not just sensitive to their needs, but also sensitive towards the ecology at large. 6 IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 4P’s of real2 estate – the pillars of transition IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 7 2.1 PLAYERS The real estate industry has been a highly localised industry in India building a pan-India portfolio of real estate assets may sustain and with each city being dominated by a select few developers. However, strengthen over the next decade as the market matures and weaker in the post-global financial crisis (GFC) era, several developers started players get weeded out for lack of capital, corporatization, and technical to expand their footprint to newer geographies. For example – K prowess. Eventually, the sector would witness a period of consolidation Raheja Corporation, dominant in Mumbai, forayed into the Hyderabad wherein large, well-capitalized developers would gain market share IT office segment through its Mindspace park in 2004, Godrej by either purchasing assets or acquiring smaller players. Developers Properties dominant in Mumbai, forayed into Ahmedabad through its holding excessively large levels of debt on their balance sheets and Garden City project in 2013 and entered the Pune market by way of its struggling to service it would be the prime takeover candidates while Horizon project at Undri in 2012. A recent entrant in the Indian realty professionally managed players with access to institutional funding space and primarily on the retail segment is the Xander group, which would emerge as acquirers. The introduction of real estate investment is establishing a pan-India portfolio of properties spanning diverse trusts (REITs) would catalyse the transition as private equity (PE) funds asset types starting with its VR Mall at Surat, (completed in 2013). would be able to make exits from their current projects freeing up capital for more judicious deployment in future years. It is highly likely that the trend of large and well capitalized developers Examples of developers foraying into new geographies Developer Name Dominant Expansion Project Name Asset City City Type Godrej Properties Mumbai Kolkata Waterside Office Godrej Properties Mumbai Gurgaon Godrej Summit Residential Tata Housing Mumbai Bangalore Casacades Residential Tata Housing Mumbai Gurgaon Louvre Residential DLF Delhi Bangalore Westend Heights Residential NCR DLF Delhi Chennai Commander’s court Residential NCR K Raheja Corp Mumbai Hyderabad Inorbit Mall Retail K Raheja Corp Mumbai Bangalore Vivarea Residential Source: JLL-REIS 8 IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 2.2 PROCESSES Ongoing changes in how real estate stakeholders are carrying out We are beginning to witness the their business in India reveal a change in market perception trend of outsourcing of AEIC Growing acceptance of international real estate (Architecture, Engineering, Interior consultants and Contractor) practices to globally renowned agencies in an effort to As against the 1990s, when multinationals that entered India largely make Indian cities standout adopted the Indian standards in real estate, the IT-era growth post 2000 witnessed offshore companies demanding quality IT space. Besides, India’s growing prowess in the world of services, trade and business resulted in a wider participation of multinational companies, who shifted their base to India and created a natural expectation for superior quality of construction, architecture and design. Local developers left no stone unturned to ensure best practices across the globe were gradually adopted. More recently, we are beginning to witness the trend of outsourcing of AEIC (Architecture, Engineering, Interior and Contractor) practices to globally renowned agencies in an effort to make Indian cities stand-out and reflect their recently acquired prowess. In the last five years, these consultants have become household names in their respective fields within the real estate sector. Their designs have been inspiring property buyers because they reflect styles that are truly global. These consultants manage to influence more developers into partnering with them. Following is a list of internationally reputed consultants that currently operate in India – Architecture Interiors Landscape HOK Kelly Hoppen Allan Wyatt Woha Singapore Yoo Belt Collin Callison Jade Jagger Design Concepts Casa / Foster & Partners Sitectonics Armani Philippe HB Design Studio Steed Starck Source: JLL-REIS IS INDIAN REAL ESTATE HEADING TOWARDS A TECTONIC SHIFT? 9 Property transactions becoming increasingly legitimate While the property market slowdown in India since 2011 has hurt many, one positive thing that has happened is the consistent fall in cash Examples of public portals that are rich with real estate information component (source of black money) in property purchases. Over the National land records last five years, property prices have almost stagnated against inflation http://www.archive.india.gov.in across major real estate markets. As a result, majority buyers who are Central government property records currently active in the market are salaried people who can support http://estates.nic.in a loan but cannot afford cash payments. Today, as much as 80% of buyers in top cities such as Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai, Pune, Property registration records of Maharashtra Hyderabad and Kolkata are salaried employees. On the contrary, http://igrmaharashtra.gov.in businessmen and speculative investors were dominating the market prior to the slowdown when real estate boom was at pinnacle. Today, almost all newly developed