Journal Pre-proof Potentials of energy efficiency improvement and energy–emission–health nexus in Jing-Jin-Ji’s cement industry Shaohui Zhang, Yang Xie, Robert Sander, Hui Yue, Yun Shu PII: S0959-6526(20)33380-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123335 Reference: JCLP 123335 To appear in: Journal of Cleaner Production Received Date: 27 February 2020 Revised Date: 9 July 2020 Accepted Date: 16 July 2020 Please cite this article as: Zhang S, Xie Y, Sander R, Yue H, Shu Y, Potentials of energy efficiency improvement and energy–emission–health nexus in Jing-Jin-Ji’s cement industry, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123335. This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. 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Potentials of energy efficiency improvement and energy–emission–health nexus in Jing-Jin-Ji’s cement industry Shaohui Zhang 1,2 , Yang Xie 1,3,4* , Robert Sander 2, Hui Yue 5, Yun Shu 6 1 School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China 2 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria 3 Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-based Precision Medicine, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China 4Key Laboratory of Big Data-Based Precision Medicine, Beihang University, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beijing, China 5Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands 6Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China 1 * Corresponding author: Email address: [email protected] (Shaohui Zhang); [email protected] (Yang Xie); [email protected] (Robert Sander); [email protected] (Hui Yue); [email protected] (Yun Shu) Potentials of energy efficiency improvement and energy–emission–health nexus in Jing-Jin-Ji’s cement industry Shaohui Zhang 1,2 , Yang Xie 1,3,4*, Robert Sander 2, Hui Yue 5, Yun Shu 6 1 School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, 100191, China 2 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria 3 Beijing Advanced Innovation Center for Big Data-based Precision Medicine, Beihang University, Beijing 100191, China 4Key Laboratory of Big Data-Based Precision Medicine, Beihang University, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Beijing, China 5Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8a, 3584 CB Utrecht, the Netherlands 6Institute of Atmospheric Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing, 100012, China Abstract China produces 52% of the global cement supply, and cement production accounts for 8% of China’s total energy consumption. Moreover, 4% of China’s total cement share is contributed by Jing-Jin-Ji (JJJ). In this study, we developed and used an integrated nexus framework that involves multiple tools to quantify the potential for energy efficiency improvements, for CO 2 and air pollutant emission reduction, and for public health benefits in relation to air pollution of the JJJ’s cement industry at different scales from 2010 to 2030. Results show that the overall cost-effective energy efficiency measure implemented for energy efficiency improvement under the economic potential scenario could result in 21% energy savings, 8% reduction in CO 2 3 emissions, 13% reduction in air pollution, 0.5 µg/m reduction in average annual PM 2.5 concentration, and in avoidance of morbidity in 17,000 individuals in the JJJ region. Under the technical potential scenario, the implementation of all the best available technologies for energy efficiency improvement would result in 23% 3 energy savings and in reduction in CO 2 emission by 5%, in air pollution by 16%, in PM 2.5 by 0.2 µg/m , and in morbidity by 58%. At the prefecture level, the cities of Tangshan, Xingtai, and Shijiazhuang were the top three contributors to the potential for energy saving and to the mitigation of CO 2 emissions and air pollution, whereas Beijing and Tianjin demonstrated a limited potential. Overall, the direct energy-saving benefits could be 15–47% lower than the cost of the energy efficiency measures in both scenarios, but the full benefits (i.e., energy savings benefit, CO 2 reduction benefits, and health benefits) would be 1.3–3.6 times higher than the total costs during the study period. We recommend the design and implementation of an integrated policy (integrating carbon, air quality, and health elements into energy efficiency), which would create more opportunities to address multiple challenges in a cost-effective manner, for instance by increasing energy efficiency, cleaning the air, and extending human life. Keywords: Energy efficiency; emissions; health effects; Nexus assessment; cement industry; Jing-Jin-Ji Highlights 1. An integrated nexus assessment tool was developed to enhance the energy efficiency policy analysis 1 * Corresponding author: Email address: [email protected] (Shaohui Zhang); [email protected] (Yang Xie); [email protected] (Robert Sander); [email protected] (Hui Yue); [email protected] (Yun Shu) 2. Energy efficiency measures would save energy by 44% and would reduce CO 2 emission by 13% and pollution by 29% 3. The distribution of energy saving and energy–emission–health nexus differs widely 4. The benefits of the energy–emission–health nexus would be 1.3–3.6 times higher than the costs of the energy efficiency measures Nomenclature Abbreviations IAMs Integrated assessment models BL Baseline scenario CCS Carbon capture and storage CDR Carbon dioxide removal DC Derived coal ECSC Energy conservation supply curves EEC Energy efficiency improvement with economic potential scenario EET Energy efficiency improvement with the technical potential scenario ELE Electricity GAINS Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies GAS Natural gas GHG Greenhouse gas GSL Gasoline and other light fractions of oil HC3 Hard coal HEL Health Impact Assessment HF Heavy fuel oil HT Heat IAMGE Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IMED|CGE Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development/Computable General Equilibrium IU Intensity use JJ J Jing -Jin -Ji LPG Liquefied petroleum gas MD Medium distillates MIIT Ministry of Industry and Information Technology MRIO Multi -region input -output model SDS Sustainable Development Scenario TM5 the global chemistry transport model version 5 VSL Value of statistical life WEM World Energy Model WHO World Health Organization Symbols P Cement production Cement production in city i NFS New floor space in city i BCI Cement consumption for one -unit floor space of Building sector in city i HCI Cement consumption for one -unit of highway in city i NLH New length of highways in city i RCI Cement consumption for one -unit length of railway in city i NLR New length of railways in city i Ini Industrial investment in city i ICI Cement consumption per unit investment in industrial sector in city i Im Net import of cement in province i CCE costs of conserved energy for an energy efficiency measure I Investment A Annuity factor & Annual change in operation and maintenance fixed costs & Annual change in operation and maintenance variable costs ESP Annual energy -saving potential PE Energy price r Discount rate l Lifetime of an energy efficiency measure 1. Overview Modern integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been widely used to provide alternative development pathways in energy production and consumption, investment, technological advances, and strategies to meet certain climate and environmental targets (Paltsev, 2017). Several studies employing IAMs that involve scenario-based analysis have highlighted various mitigation pathways to cost-effectively limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C above the pre-industrial levels (Fuss et al., 2018; Xie et al., 2020). Many researchers have found that actions that aim to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C would require large-scale application of negative emission technologies (e.g., bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) across the globe (Heck et al., 2018; Lemoine et al., 2012; Peters, 2016; Walsh et al., 2017). The pathways developed in previous studies differ widely even if they deal with the same climate target. For example, the Integrated Model of Energy, Environment and Economy for Sustainable Development/Computable General Equilibrium (IMED/CGE) was developed and used to assess the possible solutions that China could employ to achieve the 2 °C target, and it was found that increasing the renewable share of the energy system, accelerating the adoption of CCS, and limiting the new capacity expansion and improving the efficiency of most energy- intensive industry sectors are warranted (Xie et al., 2020). The Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), which is also an IAM, was employed to assess the pathway toward the 1.5 °C target, and it was found that the