Black Cab Green London’s Electric Black Cab and Private Hire Future Version: 2.0 Date: April 2018 Black Cab Green London’s Electric Black Cab and Private Hire Future Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 6 Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................... 12 1 Background ........................................................................................................................................ 13 2 Approach ............................................................................................................................................ 15 2.1 Project Outputs ....................................................................................................................... 16 2.2 Project Structure ..................................................................................................................... 16 2.3 Key Assumptions .................................................................................................................... 17 3 Licence Mapping to UKPN substations .............................................................................................. 19 3.1 Clustering ................................................................................................................................ 21 4 Vehicle Details.................................................................................................................................... 23 4.1 Black Cabs .............................................................................................................................. 23 4.2 Private Hire Vehicles ............................................................................................................... 25 5 Modelling Scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 26 6 Charging Profiles ................................................................................................................................ 28 6.1 Unconstrained Charging Scenario Profiles ............................................................................. 28 6.2 Optimised Time-Shifting Scenario Profiles ............................................................................. 33 6.3 Managed Charge Rate Scenario Profiles ............................................................................... 35 7 Forecasting ......................................................................................................................................... 36 7.1 Black cabs ............................................................................................................................... 38 7.2 Private hire vehicles ................................................................................................................ 39 8 Simulations ........................................................................................................................................ 43 8.1 Additional Network Demand ................................................................................................... 44 8.2 Network Investment ................................................................................................................ 45 9 Stakeholder Engagement ................................................................................................................... 47 9.1 Online Survey Responses ...................................................................................................... 48 9.2 Private Hire Driver Face-to-Face sessions ............................................................................. 50 10 Conclusions and Recommendations ................................................................................................. 53 11 References ......................................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix A – Supplementary Tables: Profile Proportions and Forecasts .................................................. 57 Appendix B – Half-Hourly Charging Profiles ............................................................................................... 60 Appendix C – Online Black Cab and Private Hire Driver Survey Results .................................................. 72 Appendix D – Detailed LRE Modelling Results .......................................................................................... 72 Appendix E – Dissemination Event Outcomes ........................................................................................... 72 UK Power Networks (Operations) Limited. Registered in England and Wales. Registered No. 3870728. Registered Office: Newington House, 237 Southwark Bridge Road, London, SE1 6NP Page 2 of 72 Black Cab Green London’s Electric Black Cab and Private Hire Future Figures Figure 1: Forecast uptake of ZEC black cabs and private hire vehicles ............................................................................ 6 Figure 2: The load contribution of ZEC black cab and private hire vehicles by 2033 ........................................................ 8 Figure 3: NPV of the additional reinforcement costs from the ZEC black cab and private hire vehicle uptake to 2033 for three scenarios. .................................................................................................................................................................. 8 Figure 4: High level project approach ............................................................................................................................... 15 Figure 5: Map of UKPN licence areas. ............................................................................................................................. 19 Figure 6: Map showing areas supplied at the secondary substation level by IDNO GTC (in grey). Some of these areas contain the locations of black cab and private hire licenced drivers. (ENA, 2017) ........................................................... 20 Figure 7: Distribution of ZEC black cab and private hire vehicles per LPN secondary substation in 2032 ...................... 22 Figure 8: Distribution of ZEC black cab and private hire vehicles per LPN primary substation in 2032 .......................... 23 Figure 9: Unconstrained charging scenario profiles for different black cab driver shifts. ................................................. 29 Figure 10: Unconstrained charging scenario for private hire drivers with different shifts and battery electric vehicles ... 29 Figure 11: Unconstrained charging scenario for private hire drivers with different shifts and hybrid electric plug-in vehicles ............................................................................................................................................................................. 30 Figure 12: LEVC black cab survey responses to the question - 'When do you work?' .................................................... 31 Figure 13: Optimised time-shifting scenario profiles for black cab drivers ....................................................................... 33 Figure 14: Set of considered daily shift patterns (non-aggregated profiles) ..................................................................... 34 Figure 15: Daily demand profile (original profile on the left and time-shifted profile on the right) where some charging demand is shifted away from the peak (18.00) and introduced at low demand times (around 04.00) ............................. 35 Figure 16: Charging profiles for black cabs in the unconstrained charging and managed charging scenarios ............... 36 Figure 17: Forecast uptake of ZEC black cab and private hire vehicle licences (left) and driver licences (right) ............ 38 Figure 18: Line of best fit on black cab vehicle/driver ratio graph. ................................................................................... 39 Figure 19: Year on year change in the number of private hire licences. .......................................................................... 40 Figure 20: Graph to show line of best fit on private hire vehicles/drivers ratio by year. ................................................... 42 Figure 21: The load contribution from black cab and private hire vehicles in 2033.......................................................... 44 Figure 22: NPV costs for each of the scenarios modelled for different voltage levels. .................................................... 46 Figure 23: Online survey responses to – “How much does your shift pattern vary on a daily basis?” ............................. 50 UK Power Networks (Operations) Limited. Registered in England and Wales. Registered No. 3870728. Registered Office: Newington House, 237 Southwark Bridge Road, London, SE1 6NP Page 3 of 72 Black Cab Green London’s Electric Black Cab and Private Hire Future Tables Table 1: Summary of key project assumptions. ................................................................................................................ 18 Table 2: Quantities of black cab and private hire drivers mapped to secondary substations in UKPN licence areas. .... 20 Table 3: Summary of the Black Cab Profile Parameters. ................................................................................................