Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017 ADDRESSING ENERGY CHALLENGES The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a bi-annual publication on regional economic growth, development and regional integration in Emerging Asia. It focuses on the economic conditions of Economic Outlook for Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. It also addresses relevant Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017 Southeast Asia, China and India economic issues in China and India to fully reflect economic developments in the region. The 2017 edition of the Outlook comprises four main parts, each highlighting a particular dimension of recent economic developments in the region. The first part presents the regional economic monitor, depicting the near-term and medium-term 2017 economic outlooks, as well as macroeconomic and regional integration challenges in the region. The second part discusses the recent progress made in key aspects of regional integration. The third part presents this edition’s ADDRESSING ENERGY CHALLENGES special focus: addressing energy challenges and renewable energy development in particular. The fourth part includes structural policy country notes offering specific recommendations. Contents Chapter 1: Economic outlook and macroeconomic assessment for Emerging Asia Chapter 2: Regional integration challenges in ASEAN and Emerging Asia Chapter 3: Developing renewable energy in Emerging Asia Chapter 4: Structural policy country notes version ADDRESSING ENERGY CHALLENGES ADDRESSING ENERGY Consult this publication on line at http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/saeo-2017-en This work is published on the OECD iLibrary, which gathers all OECD books, periodicals and statistical databases. Visit www.oecd-ilibrary.org for more information. Preliminary ISBN: 978-92-64-262485 41 2016 12 1 P1 Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017 ADDRESSING ENERGY CHALLENGES version Preliminary This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of the member countries of the OECD or its Development Centre. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2017), Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India 2017: Addressing Energy Challenges, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/saeo-2017-en ISBN 978-92-64-26248-5 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-26816-6 (PDF) version Series: Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India ISSN 2310-1105 (print) ISSN 2310-1113 (online) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. 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FOREWORD Foreword The Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India is a biannual publication on Asia’s regional economic growth, development and regional integration processes. It focuses on the economic conditions of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member countries (Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam) and two large economies in the region, China and India. This publication evolved from the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook. Beginning with the Outlook Update, released in June 2016, the Outlook has become a biannual publication, with the main report released in the fall and its update released the following spring. The Outlook was initially proposed at an informal reflection group on Southeast Asia in 2008 as a follow-up of the Council Meeting at Ministerial level (MCM) in 2007 and was accepted by ministers/senior officials from ASEAN countries at the occasion of the 2nd OECD-Southeast Asia Regional Forum in Bangkok in 2009. The Outlook project was officially launched in 2010 and each edition is regularly presented at the occasion of the ASEAN/East Asia Summit. It was included in the OECD’s Southeast Asia Regional Programme (SEARP) at the Steering Group Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia in March 2015, with its role of providing a horizontal view of activities, identifying emerging trends in the region and providing a backbone for the different streams of the Programme confirmed at the 2015 MCM. The Outlook serves as a strategicversion foresight and policy dialogue tool for the SEARP and includes summaries of recent developments in the region on issues related to the Programme’s six Regional Policy Networks and three Initiatives. Each edition of the Outlook is comprised of four main parts: a regional economic monitor, an overview of recent developments in regional integration, structural policy country notes and a thematic focus specific to each year’s report. The 2017 edition of the Outlook focuses on the energy challenges faced by Emerging Asia as economic and population growth result in large increases in energy demand. At the same time, most of the region has committed to specific targets for implementing renewable energy technologies to slow the increase of fossil fuel use in the future. While the region has considerable potential, expanding the supply of energy and improving the prospects of alternative energy sources in particular requires the implementation of the right policies. Private investment in the energy sector is also likely to play a major role in the sector’s future development. The OECD Development Centre is committed to working alongside governments of developing and emerging economies and regional actors to identify key areas of intervention in order to address these challenges. The Centre enjoys the full membership of three Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as India and China. This project has also benefitted from the generous support of other Emerging Asian countries. This edition of the Outlook is the result of policy dialogue and consultation at the Preliminaryregional level, at the 5th OECD-AMRO-ADB/ADBI-ERIA Asian Regional Roundtable on Macroeconomic and Structural Policy Challenges, held in Tokyo, Japan, in July 2016. Like other regional economic outlooks produced by the OECD Development Centre, the report was prepared in collaboration with regional partners; UNESCAP and the Economic Research Institute for AEAN and East Asia (ERIA) contributed to the 2017 edition. The Outlook also benefited from discussions with the ASEAN Secretariat. The OECD is committed to supporting Asian countries in their efforts to promote economic and social well-being through rigorous analysis, peer learning and best practices. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST ASIA, CHINA AND INDIA 2017: ADDRESSING ENERGY CHALLENGES © OECD 2017 3 1. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Acknowledgements The 2017 edition of the Economic Outlook for Southeast Asia, China and India: Addressing Energy Challenges was prepared by the Asia Desk of the OECD Development Centre, in co-operation with United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) and Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA). The publication also benefited from discussions with the ASEAN Secretariat. The team was lead by Kensuke Tanaka, Head of the Asia Desk and overall guidance was provided by Mario Pezzini, Director and Naoko Ueda, Deputy Director of the OECD Development Centre. This volume was drafted by a team composed of Kensuke Tanaka, Masato Abe, Derek Carnegie, Jingjing Xia, Juita Mohamad, Guro Persen, Megumi Kubota, Ryan Jacildo, Prasiwi Ibrahim and Han Phoumin. Jingjing Xia also contributed to statistical work related to this publication. Laura Golden provided useful administrative supports for this project. Elizabeth Nash, Delphine Grandrieux, Studio Pykha and Aida Buendia turned the manuscript into the publication. The Outlook 2017 benefited from discussions with OECD Delegations at three Informal Consultation Group (ICG) meetings in Febuary, October and December 2016 in Paris, led by co-chairs of the Outlook consultation group, Ambassador Jong-Won Yoon and Ambassador Maria Theresa Lazaro, together with Ambassador Pierre Duquesne. The Outlook also benefited from discussion