Modeling Oil Spill Trajectories in Baffin Bay and Lancaster Sound FINAL REPORT June 13, 2016 Submitted to: Paul Crowley, Vice-President, Arctic WWF-Canada Contributing Authors: Danielle Ameen Reich, Shoal’s Edge Consulting Dagmar Schmidt Etkin, Environmental Research Consulting Greg Rowe, Growe Geospatial Stefanie Zamorski, Shoal’s Edge Consulting This report contains information intended for use by WWF-Canada and is not intended for third-party use without prior written consent from WWF-Canada. Modeling is predictive in CO N T A CT nature and, while this report is based on information from sources that Shoal’s Edge Danielle Ameen Reich Consulting considers reliable, the accuracy and completeness of said information cannot be guaranteed. Therefore, Shoal’s Edge Consulting and its directors, agents, assigns, [email protected] and employees accept no liability for the result of any action taken or not taken on the (772) 206-0989 basis of the information given in this report, nor for any negligent misstatements, errors, www.shoalsedge.com and omissions. The statements in this report are the opinions of the authors and may not reflect the views of WWF-Canada. WWF-Canada Oil Spill Modeling Report June, 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 2.0 MODEL DESCRIPTIONS .................................................................................................... 4 2.1 OILMAP DEEP ......................................................................................................... 4 2.2 SIMAP ...................................................................................................................... 4 3.0 MODELING APPROACH .................................................................................................... 7 3.1 Blowout Near-Field Modeling ................................................................................... 7 3.1.1 Description of a Blowout ............................................................................... 7 3.1.2 Blowout Near-field Modeling Approach ......................................................... 8 3.2 Far-field Modeling .................................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 Stochastic Modeling Approach...................................................................... 9 3.2.2 Deterministic Modeling Approach ............................................................... 12 3.3 Modeling Oil Interactions in Ice .............................................................................. 12 3.3.1 Oil Transport in Sea Ice .............................................................................. 13 3.3.2 Oil Interaction with Landfast Ice .................................................................. 14 3.3.3 Effects of Ice on Oil Fates and Behavior Processes .................................... 14 4.0 DATA INPUTS................................................................................................................... 16 4.1 Currents and Ice ..................................................................................................... 16 4.1.1 Regional Overview...................................................................................... 16 4.1.2 Currents and Sea Ice Dataset ..................................................................... 19 4.1.3 Landfast Ice Dataset ................................................................................... 21 4.1.4 Eclipse Sound Tidal Currents Model ........................................................... 22 4.2 Winds ..................................................................................................................... 23 4.2.1 Regional Overview...................................................................................... 23 4.2.2 Wind Dataset .............................................................................................. 24 4.3 Temperature, Density, and Salinity ......................................................................... 24 4.4 Shoreline Geometry and Type ................................................................................ 24 4.5 Bathymetry ............................................................................................................. 25 4.6 Oil Properties ......................................................................................................... 25 4.7 Consequence Thresholds....................................................................................... 26 5.0 SCENARIOS 1A AND 1B – MELVILLE BAY BLOWOUTS .............................................. 28 5.1 Scenario Development ........................................................................................... 28 5.2 Environmental Analysis .......................................................................................... 30 5.3 Near-field Modeling ................................................................................................ 37 5.4 Stochastic Modeling ............................................................................................... 39 5.4.1 Stochastic Scenario Parameters ................................................................. 39 5.4.2 Stochastic Results ...................................................................................... 40 5.5 Deterministic Modeling ........................................................................................... 45 5.5.1 Deterministic Scenario Parameters ............................................................. 46 5.5.1.1 Response Parameters .................................................................. 47 5.5.2 Deterministic Results .................................................................................. 51 5.6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 70 6.0 SCENARIOS 2A AND 2B – BAFFIN BAY BLOWOUTS ................................................... 72 6.1 Scenario Development ........................................................................................... 72 6.2 Environmental Analysis .......................................................................................... 74 6.3 Near-field Modeling ................................................................................................ 81 6.4 Stochastic Modeling ............................................................................................... 83 6.4.1 Stochastic Scenario Parameters ................................................................. 83 6.4.2 Stochastic Results ...................................................................................... 84 i WWF-Canada Oil Spill Modeling Report June, 2016 6.5 Deterministic Modeling ........................................................................................... 90 6.5.1 Deterministic Scenario Parameters ............................................................. 90 6.5.1.1 Response Parameters .................................................................. 90 6.5.2 Deterministic Results .................................................................................. 94 6.6 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 107 7.0 SCENARIO 3 – GREENLAND COAST CRUISE SHIP SPILL ......................................... 109 7.1 Scenario Development ......................................................................................... 109 7.2 Environmental Analysis ........................................................................................ 111 7.3 Stochastic Modeling ............................................................................................. 117 7.3.1 Stochastic Scenario Parameters ............................................................... 117 7.3.2 Stochastic Results .................................................................................... 117 7.4 Deterministic Modeling ......................................................................................... 121 7.4.1 Deterministic Scenario Parameters ........................................................... 122 7.4.2 Deterministic Results ................................................................................ 122 7.5 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 129 8.0 SCENARIO 4 – LANCASTER SOUND PRODUCT TANKER SPILL .............................. 130 8.1 Scenario Development ......................................................................................... 130 8.2 Environmental Analysis ........................................................................................ 131 8.3 Stochastic Modeling ............................................................................................. 137 8.3.1 Stochastic Scenario Parameters ............................................................... 137 8.3.2 Stochastic Results .................................................................................... 138 8.4 Conclusions ......................................................................................................... 142 9.0 SCENARIOS 5A AND 5B – ECLIPSE SOUND BULK CARRIER SPILLS ...................... 143 9.1 Scenario Development ......................................................................................... 143 9.2