New Adaptation Strategies of Mekong River Watershed to Environmental Change 4th NIES International Forum (Hanoi, Vietnam) 2019/Feb./23-24 New Adaptation Strategies to Support a Sustainable Watershed Management in Asia Three topics in Mekong River watershed Adaptation measure to environmental change Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem Kyoto University, C-PIER National Institute for Environmental Studies (Specially-Appointed professor) (Senior Researcher) Satoshi KAMEYAMA Self introduction Satoshi Kameyama (亀 山 哲) 2008/11/16 Chiang Sean Ecosystem Function Assessment Section Center for Environmental Biology and Ecosystem （Senior Researcher） Kyoto University Center for the Promotion of Interdisciplinary Education and Research （Specially-Appointed Professor） Vietnam-Japan University, Vietnam National University, Hanoi （JICA Expert） 2012/09/18 Dong Rui, Climate Change and Development Quang Ninh, Vietnam Economic and population growth in Mekong River watershed Industrial development and use of natural resources Traditional life style Mekong River and human society. China (picture in local museum in Thailand ) Man wan dam Myanmar Laos Ubonrat dam “Ho Chi Minh City” Creative Commons images Thailand Cambodia Vietnam Mekong Delta mangrove Basin population; Over 73 million people Size;795,000 km2 . Length;4,800 km The endless TRILEMMA in watershed management Nature conservation / restoration Disaster prevention / Water resources & reduction nearly Energy What should we do for their All their policy are “ correct” harmonization Common background = East Asian MONSOON→Rainy season つゆ 梅雨 Mùa mưa How seasonal changes in ecosystem greatly increase the diversity of habitats available for aquatic animals and plants over the flood- cycle. Sited from ；“Biodiversity and Fisheries in the Mekong River Basin, Mekong Development Series No.2 June 2003” Contents Impact of watershed development 1. On seasonal hydrologic dynamics and sediment transport Man wan dam 2. On seasonal discharge and flooding Ubonrat dam 3. On change of coastal zone (Mangrove wetland) Mekong delta New Adaptation Strategies to Support a Sustainable Watershed Management in Asia 1) Man wan dam = Upper region FOREST AREA Manwan Dam constructed from 1986 to 1993 2007/12/19 Mekong River Xiaowan Dam (2002-2012) watershed Mekong Manwan Dam (1986-1993) Cascade Dachaoshan Dam (1997-2003) China Jinghong Dam (2010- ) Myanmar Study Study sites Luang site Prabang Chiang Legend River discharge monitoring site Sean in main channel used for run-off Laos and 1D model validation) River discharge monitoring site Precipitation monitoring site Chiang Watershed A Khong Watershed B Thailand River channel km Fig.1 Mekong River 0 5 10 km Myanmar St.4St.4 Laos St.1St.1 Golden Triangle St.5St.5 Chiang Khong St.2St.2 St.3St.3 Chiang Sean Thailand St.6St.6 Google, Inc. 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway Mountain View, CA 94043 Anthropogenic structural changes in watershed Target year 1991 2002 Watershed 1991 & No dam IF No dam in the 2002 & Manwan dam structure upper region ? 1991Daily precipitation Daily precipitation 2002 Archived observation 1991 Daily 2002 Daily data Water volume & water level Water volume & water level (Cheng Sean, Luan Prabang) (Cheng Sean, Luan Prabang) Watershed Model parameters 1991 (= no dam) Watershed Model parameters 2002 Hydro model 1991 Simulation Virtual Simulation 2002 Simulation Simulation 1991=watershed 2002=precipitation L-Q equation by Hydrologic dynamics water sampling Suspended Sediment transport River bottom tracking (ADCP) Field survey ( fish finder) Habitat evaluation of fish Affects of anthropogenic change of watershed Kameyama et al. 2013, American Journal of Environmental Science 9 (3): 247-258 14000 Chiang Sean observed data (2002) 12000 simulation (2002) Virtual simulation of 2002 /s) 3 10000 (1991 model Parameters) 8000 6000 4000 Water Discharge Discharge (m Water 2000 0 02/1/1Jan. 02/2/1 Feb. 02/3/1 Mar. 02/4/1 Apr. 02/5/1 May 02/6/1 Jun.02/7/1 Jul. 02/8/1 Aug.02/9/1 Sep.02/10/1 Oct.02/11/1 Nov.02/12/1 Dec Month The simulated annual run-off process to same watershed in two different conditions. The red data is 2002 simulation (after dam construction). The blue data is virtual simulation (no dam, 1991 parameters ). In this procedure, same 2002 precipitation data was used. ×103 Kameyama et al. 2013, American Journal of Environmental Science 9 (3): 247-258 14000 2002 monthly sediment load 12000 Virtual 2002 (1991 model parameters) monthly sediment load 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Suspended sediment load (ton/month) 0 Jan.1月 Feb.2月 Mar.3月 Apr.4月 May5月 Jun.6月 Jul.7月 Aug.8月 Sep.9月 10月 Oct. 11月 Nov. 12月 Dec Month Fig. Comparison of seasonal dynamics of suspended sediment load at Chiang Sean. The red and blue bars indicate the loads calculated from the 2002 and virtual 2002 hydrographs (1991 parameter model), respectively. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 ×106(ton/year) 2002 simulation Virtual 2002 simulation (1991 parameter) 0km Golden Triangle 10km 21.13 27.90 Chiang Sean +1.39 +1.58 25km 22.52 29.48 +1.79 +2.03 45km 24.30 31.51 +2.49 +2.80 70km 26.79 34.31 Chiang Khong Distance from Golden Triangle +2.81 +3.14 95km 29.60 37.45 Suspended sediment budget in the study site from the golden triangle to the Laos border. Red and blue arrows are results for simulations of the 2002 and virtual 2002 hydrographs (1991 parameter model Kameyama et al. 2013, American Journal of Environmental Science 9 (3): 247-258 2) Ubonrat dam = middle region VILLAGE AREA Ubonrat Dam constructed in 1966 2007/3/13 Ubonrat Mekong River Dam Pong River watershed Chi River Khon Kaen Main Mekong River Mun Study River site Area of Yasorthon Ubon Phibun Kameyama et al. 2009 Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. Ratchathani Mangsahan km flood image analysis 2009, vol. 30, Part 5, p. 794–800 Anthropogenic structural changes in watershed Target year 1945 2002 Watershed No dam & Natural river Ubonrat dam & Channelized river structure Daily precipitation 2002 Archived observation 2002 Daily Water volume & water level data (Yasorton, Ubon Ratchani, Hhibun mangsahan) Watershed Model parameters 2002 Virtual 2D simulation 2D hydro simulation 2002=precipitation 2002=precipitation 1945=watershed 2002=watershed Flooded area analysis = daily Landsat (Accumulation of flooded time on each mesh ) ETM image 2002, Mar. 15 Spatial variation between simulation Sep. 23 and remote sensing analysis Nov. 10 Flooded Flooded days in class a year Flooded area classification map A >30 (Spatial zoning by flooded days) B 96-30 C 186-95 Kameyama et al. 2009 D 276-185 Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. 2009, vol. 30, Part 5, p. 794–800 Change detection map E <275 4000 The hydro curve Yasorthon in three 3000 observation 2000 points. 1000 0 Calculation based on 6000 MIKE-SHE and MIKE11 Ubon Ratchathani 4000 2000 0 8000 /s) 3 Phibun Mangsahan ETM 6000 ETM Landsat ETM 2002 Observation 4000 1945 simulation 2002 simulation 2000 River discharge (m River discharge 0 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec Kameyama et al. 2009, Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol. , vol. 30, Part 5, p. 794–800 Month The classified satellite image and the simulated flooded area 10 November 2002 Yasorthon km Simulated flooded area Legend Flooded area No water Outside of Legend Turbid water Flooded area Clear water flooded based on Landsat ETM image analysis Forest Kameyama et al. 2009, 2002/11/10, P127R049 Other Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol., vol. 30, Part 5, p. 794–800 The comparison of simulated flooded area. Ubonrat Dam (2002)(2002) KhonKhonKaenKaen Kameyama et al. 2009, Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol., vol. 30, Part 5, p. 794–800 YasorthonYasorthon UbonUbon RatchathaniRatchathani Annual number of flooded days 0 to 14 15 to 29 (1945)(1945) 30 to 44 45 to 59 km 60 < The change in the number of flooded days from 1945 to 2002 Kameyama et al. 2009, Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol., vol. 30, Part 5, p. 794–800 KhonKhon KaenKaen YasorthonYasorthon The change of flooded Days in a year < - 61 - 60 to --31 - 30 to --16 - 15 to --11 - 10 to --6 UbonUbon --- 5 to --1 RatchathaniRatchathani 0 1 to 5 6 < km 3) Mekong delta = lower region CASTAL AREA Front line of mangrove forest in Mekong delta The most vulnerable ecosystem to sea level rise. 2013/04/09 N 9°19′16.8″ E 105°53′50.4″ Photo by S. Kameyama Where is the original coastal line ? ←Ocean side Terrestrial side→ Historical change of coastal area and shore line Data integration in GIS 1936-37 charts 2018 Satellite image Present costal line Aqua culture ponds 2018 Coastal line in 1930’ Digital map Where is the best Coastal line (better) restoration Aqua culture ponds sited for coastal ecosystem Main road ①1. Nature restoration zone Adaptation measures ②2. Protect zone ③3. Land-use conversion zone ② ③ ② ① Coastal line Aquaculture area (Front line of in 2014 ① mangrove) in2014 Land-use map in 1936 Modified from Kameyama et al. A strategies for adaptation to environmental change 2015 Original natural ecosystem in target region History of human impact and the present situation Long-term Spatial data Experience & knowledge of The situation of statistical analysis(Remote experts and local people stakeholders data sensing &GIS) Fisheries Historical change and Species, methods, season, Land ownership, data(volume & value development situation for the economic efficiency and manpower resource of landings), mangrove wetland procurement of seeding for and securing seedling. Industry statistics, the plantation. project fund etc. regional economic information, etc. Investigation of the project by agreement with administrative committee and land owners Analysis and evaluation for environmental condition of the candidate sites Decision of suitable area, appropriate species, effective plantation and best period for the actual project Final consensus-building by stakeholders Nature restoration design in coastal region Thank you for your attention!!. Vietnam Red Cross Society & Dr. Nguyen Thi Kim Cuc Dr.