S. HRG. 114–350 UNITED STATES POLICY AND MILITARY STRATEGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION MARCH 24; SEPTEMBER 22; OCTOBER 27, 2015 ( Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 6011 Sfmt 6011 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA UNITED STATES POLICY AND MILITARY STRATEGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 6019 Sfmt 6019 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA S. HRG. 114–350 UNITED STATES POLICY AND MILITARY STRATEGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST HEARINGS BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION MARCH 24; SEPTEMBER 22; OCTOBER 27, 2015 Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gov/ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 21–401 PDF WASHINGTON : 2016 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona, Chairman JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma JACK REED, Rhode Island JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama BILL NELSON, Florida ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi CLAIRE MCCASKILL, Missouri KELLY AYOTTE, New Hampshire JOE MANCHIN III, West Virginia DEB FISCHER, Nebraska JEANNE SHAHEEN, New Hampshire TOM COTTON, Arkansas KIRSTEN E. GILLIBRAND, New York MIKE ROUNDS, South Dakota RICHARD BLUMENTHAL, Connecticut JONI ERNST, Iowa JOE DONNELLY, Indiana THOM TILLIS, North Carolina MAZIE K. HIRONO, Hawaii DAN SULLIVAN, Alaska TIM KAINE, Virginia MIKE LEE, Utah ANGUS S. KING, JR., Maine LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina MARTIN HEINRICH, New Mexico TED CRUZ, Texas CHRISTIAN D. BROSE, Staff Director ELIZABETH L. KING, Minority Staff Director (II) VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA C O N T E N T S MARCH 24, 2015 Page UNITED STATES MIDDLE EAST POLICY .................................................................... 1 Takeyh, Dr. Ray, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies, Council on For- eign Relations ....................................................................................................... 4 Pollack, Dr. Kenneth M., Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution .............................................................. 9 Harvey, Colonel Derek J., USA, Retired, Director, Global Initiative for Civil Society and Conflict, University of South Florida ............................................. 21 Rand, Dr. Dafna H., Deputy Director of Studies and Leon E. Panetta Fellow, Center for a New American Security ................................................................. 23 SEPTEMBER 22, 2015 UNITED STATES MIDDLE EAST POLICY .................................................................... 61 Petraeus, General David H. USA (Ret.), Former Director of the Central Intel- ligence Agency; Commander, International Security Assistance Force; Com- mander, United States Forces Afghanistan; Commander, United States Central Command; and Commander, Multi-National Forces-Iraq .................. 66 OCTOBER 27, 2015 UNITED STATES MILITARY STRATEGY IN THE MIDDLE EAST .................................. 119 Carter, Hon. Ashton B., Secretary of Defense ....................................................... 123 Dunford, General Joseph F., Jr., USMC, Chairman of Other Joint Chiefs of Staff ................................................................................................................... 127 Questions for the Record ......................................................................................... 179 (III) VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00006 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA UNITED STATES MIDDLE EAST POLICY TUESDAY, MARCH 24, 2015 U.S. SENATE, COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, Washington, DC. The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 9:30 a.m. in room SH– 216, Hart Senate Office Building, Senator John McCain (chairman) presiding. Committee members present: Senators McCain, Inhofe, Sessions, Wicker, Ayotte, Cotton, Rounds, Ernst, Tillis, Graham, Reed, Gilli- brand, Blumenthal, Donnelly, Hirono, Kaine, and King. OPENING STATEMENT OF SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN, CHAIRMAN Chairman MCCAIN. Good morning. I thank all the witnesses for being here this morning. The committee meets today to receive testimony on United States policy in the Middle East. This hearing could not be more timely, and I want to thank each of our expert witnesses for ap- pearing before us today on this critical and complex topic: Dr. Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations; Dr. Kenneth M. Pollack, Senior Fellow for Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings In- stitution; Colonel Derek J. Harvey, U.S. Army, retired, Director of the Global Initiative for Civil Society and Conflict at the University of South Florida; Dr. Dafna H. Rand, Deputy Director of Studies and Leon E. Panetta Fellow at the Center for a New American Se- curity. Last month, the Director of National Intelligence, James Clap- per, testified before this committee, ‘‘in my 50-plus years in the in- telligence business, I don’t know of a time that has been more beset by challenges and crises around the world.’’ Nowhere is that truer than in the Middle East. From Libya and Yemen, to Iraq and Syria, the old order in the Middle East, both the regional balance among states and the social order within states, is collapsing and no new vision has emerged to take its place. This underlying dynamic is made worse by the failure of U.S. strategy and leadership to shape events in this vital part of the world for the better. Instead, unfortunately, we have too often confused our friends, encouraged our enemies, and created a vacuum for hostile states such as Iran and Russia and vicious non- state actors such as al-Qaeda and ISIL. The President stated our goal is, ‘‘degrading and ultimately de- stroying ISIL.’’ However, I fear our effort in Iraq may be exacer- bating the conditions that gave rise to ISIL in the first place by (1) VerDate Nov 24 2008 10:53 Sep 08, 2016 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6602 C:\USERS\WR47328\DESKTOP\21401.TXT WILDA 2 overly relying on brutal Iranian-backed Shia militias and insuffi- ciently empowering Sunni Iraqis. The situation is far worse in Syria. The administration has defined its policy in Syria more by what it will not do rather than by what end state we aim to achieve. The President repeatedly stresses that he will not put boots on the ground and that we will not go after Assad. But we still do not know whether we will defend the Syrian opposition we are training against Assad’s barrel bombs. And the administration still believes somehow that Assad will negotiate his own removal from power, even though conditions on the ground do not support it. Our part- ners are not assured of U.S. resolve by statements of what we will not do. And hope in Syria or anywhere else is not a strategy. Likewise, nuclear negotiations with Iran are clearly reaching the end game and we should recall how much we have conceded. As Dr. Henry Kissinger testified in January before this committee, an international effort supported by six U.N. Security Council resolu- tions to deny Iran a nuclear weapon capability has become an es- sentially bilateral negotiation over the scope of that capability. As Dr. Kissinger put it, ‘‘The impact of this approach will be to move from preventing proliferation to managing it.’’ What has been obscured and possibly downplayed in our focus on the nuclear negotiations is the reality that Iran is not simply an arms control challenge. It is a geopolitical challenge, as we have seen more clearly than ever today. In Iraq, the same Iranian-backed Shia militias that killed hun- dreds of American soldiers and marines are dictating the battle plans of the Iraqi Government and exacerbating the sectarian ten- sions that first led to the rise of ISIL. In Syria, the Iranian-backed Assad regime, together with Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, continue the slaughter that has killed more than 200,000 Syrians and displaced 10 million more. In Yemen, only 6 months after President Obama held it up as a successful model of United States counterterrorism, the takeover by Iranian-backed Houthis has pushed the country to the brink of a failed state and a sectarian civil war, strengthening the hand of both al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. And yet, while Iran is increasing the scope and pace of its malign activities in the region, there is a dangerous delusion that somehow Iran can be a force for good in the region, aligning with the United States in the fight against ISIL. For example, Secretary Kerry re- cently said of the Iranian military action in Iraq, ‘‘the net effect is positive.’’ Similarly, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Dempsey, said, ‘‘As long as the Iraqi Government remains com- mitted to inclusivity of all of the various groups inside the country, then I think Iranian influence will be positive.’’ General David Petraeus gave a realistic picture in a recent inter- view, which is worth quoting in full: ‘‘The current Iranian regime is not our ally in the Middle East. It is ultimately part of the prob- lem, not the solution. The more the Iranians are seen to be domi- nating the region, the more it is going to inflame Sunni radicalism and fuel the rise of groups like the Islamic State. While the United States and Iran may have convergent interests in the defeat of Daesh, our interests generally diverge.