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University Microfiims A Xerox Education Company RICO-VELASCO, Jesus Antonio, 1941- MODERNIZATION AND FERTILITY IN PUERTO RICO: AN ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS. The Ohio State IMiversity, Ph.D., 1972 Sociology, demography University Microfilms, A XEROX Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan THIS DISSERTATION HAS BEEN MICROFILMED EXACTLY AS RECEIVED MODERNIZATION AMD FERTILITY IN PUERTO RICO: AN ECOLOGICAL ANALYSIS DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Jesus Antonio Rico Velasco, B.A., M. S. The Ohio State University 1972 Approved by Adviser Department of Sociology PLEASE NOTE: Some pages may have indistinct print. Filmed as received. University Microfilms, A Xerox Education Company ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Grateful acknowledgment is made to Dr. Kent P. Schwirian whose advise, support and stimulation were crucial in supplementing ray intellectual curiosity in the fields of methodology, especially multivariate analysis, and population and human ecology. ii April 10, 1 9 4 1........... .... B o m - Cali, Colombia, 1963***t*»*>,,*«o,•**••>•«*••£•••• B,A,, Univsrsidad National de Colombia. 1 9 6 6 ............ Viviendista. CINVA Bogota, Colombia, 1 9 6 9. ........................... M.So, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, 1 9 6 9-I9 7 1. ...... Research Assistant, Mershon Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 1 9 7I-I9 7 2 Research Associate, Department of Rural Sociology, The Ohio State University. PUBLICATIONS Kent P. Schwirian and Jesus Rico-Velascc, "The Residential Distribution of Status Groups in Puerto Rico's Metropoli­ tan Areas," Demography. 8 (1971), PP. 81-90, ill FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field; Sociology Studies in Human Ecology. Professor Kent P. Schwirian Studies in Methodology. Professor Kent P. Schwirian Studies in Population. Professors Kent P. Schv/irian, Alvan Zarate, and Yuan Tien iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS................................... 11 VITA ........................................... Ill LIST OF TABLES.................................... vll LIST OF FIGURES............. Ix Chapter I. INTRODUCTION............................... 1 The Problem.................... 1 Contributions and Justification of the Study......................... 3 The Scope of the Study................. 5 The Social Setting....,................ 6 II. MODERNIZATION AND FERTILITY: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK................................. 19 Urbanization, Industrialization and Fertility........................ 20 Socioeconomic Status and Fertility 28 Women in the Labor Force and Fertility........................ 49 III. METHODOLOGICAL CONSIDERATIONS............... 6 ? Data and Variables........ 6 ? Techniques of Analysis................ 7 I Estimation of the Empirical Correlation Matrix................... 78 Testing the Correlation Matrices....... 85 Models and Hypotheses ............ 91 IV. THE FINDINGS.............................. IO3 General Structural Path Models......... 105 Model I: 1 9 5 0......................... 105 Chapter Page Model II: I960......................... 115 Specific Structural Path Models........ 129 Model III: 1 9 5 0-1 9 6 0 . Urbanization- Industrialization and Fertility 130 Model IV; 1950-1960. Socioeconomic Status and Fertility,...,............ 135 Model V: 1 9 5 0-I9 6 O. Participation of Women in the Labor Force and Fertility.................... l40 V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS................... l48 APPENDIX.......................................... 159 BIBLIOGRAPHY............ ......................... 16 0 Vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1, Deaths and Crude Death Rates, Puerto Rico, 194-0-1967........................ 10 2* Total and Age Specific Death Rates for Puerto Rico, 194-0, 1950, and i9 6 0 ...... 11 3. Life Expectation at Birth, Puerto Rico, 1 9 1 0 -1 9 6 5........................ 12 4-. Age Specific Birth Rates and Total Fertility Rates For Puerto Rican Women, 194-0, 1950 and i9 6 0 ............. 14- 5 . National Accounts and Related Economics, Puerto Rico at a Glance, 1955-196?.... 16 6 . Comparison of Relevant Publication Concerning Urbanization, Industrialization and Fertility... 29 7. Comparison of Relevant Publication Concerning Socioeconomic Status and Fertility................... 50 8 . Comparison of Relevant Publications Concerning The Participation of Women in the Labor Force and Fertility...... 62 9. Zero-order Correlation for the Six Variables. Puerto Rico, 1950........ 10? 10, Estimated Correlation Matrix from Path Coefficients and Differences Between Original and Estimated Correlations, Model I: 1950........... 112 Zero-order Correlation Matrix for the Six Variables, Puerto Rico, i9 6 0 ..... II6 Table Page 12. Estimated Correlation Matrix from Path Coefficients, and Differences Between Original and Estimated Correlations, Model Ii; I960............ 126 1 3 . Estimated Correlation Matrix from Path Coefficients, and observed Correlation Matrix. Model III: 1950-1960. Urbanization, Industrialization and Fertility................ 1 34 14. Differences Between the Observed Correlation Matrix And The Estimated Correlation Matrix, Model III: 1 9 5 0-1 9 6 0 . Urbanization, Industrialization and Fertility........ 136 1 5 . Estimated Correlation Matrix from Path Coefficients, and Observed Correlation Matrix. Model IV: 1950-1960. Socioeconomic Status and Fertility iff-i 1 6 . Estimated Correlation Matrix from Path Coefficients and Observed Correlation Matrix. Model IV: 1950-1960. Participation of Women in the Labor Force and Fertility. ........ 1/15 1 7 . Differences Between the Observed Correlation Matrix and the Estimated Correlation Matrix. Model V: 1950-1960. Participation of Women in the Labor Force and Fertility.................... if^y 18. Comparison of Direct Path Coefficients To Fertility Ratios, 1950-1960, Puerto R ico......................... 155 viii LIST OP FIGURES Figure Page 1. Model I: 1 9 5 0. General Structural Path Diagram for Puerto Rican Fertility..................... ...... 93 2. Model II: i9 6 0 . General Structural Path Diagram for Puerto Rican Fertility............................... 97 3. Model III: 1950-1960. Urbanization, Industrialization and Fertility. ^ . 99 4. Model IV: 1950-1960. Socioeconomic Status and Fertility................. 101 5. Model V: 1950-1960. Participation of Women in the Labor Force and Fertility...................... 102 6 . Revised Structural Path Diagram. Model I: 1 9 5 0. Puerto Rico.................. 109 7. Revised Structural Path Diagram. Model II: I960. Puerto Rico................ 117 8 . Revised Structural Path Diagram. Model III: 1 9 5 0-1 9 6 0 . Urbanization, Industrialization and Fertility. Puerto Rico. ............................ 131 9. Fully Recursive Causal Model with all Paths Drawn. Model IV: 1950-1960. Socioeconomic Status and Fertility. Puerto Rico............................ 137 10, Revised Structural Path Diagram. Model V: 1 9 5O-I9 6 O, Participation of Women in the Labor Force and Fertility, Puerto Rico.............. 144 INTRODUCTION The Problem This study attempts to examine the ecological correlates of community fertility levels of Puerto Rico, a society in the midst of economic development. Past studies have shown the importance of three dimensions in explaining differential community fertility levels. These three dimensions are the level of urbanization and in­ dustrialization of the society, the community's socio­ economic status, and the non-familiai activity of the population. One of the most important indicators of urbanization is urban concentration. Family planning takes place in the cities first and later diffuses to the rural areas. This pattern of lowered urban fertility