Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................................. 7 1.1 APPROACH......................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2 SUMMARY OF RESULTS...................................................................................................................... 8 2. RECOMMENDATIONS .................................................................................................................. 11 3. THE PROBLEM ............................................................................................................................... 17 3.1 POPULATION.................................................................................................................................... 17 3.2 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND MANAGEMENT ....................................................................... 17 3.3 THE LAND BALANCE ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.4 LAND DEMAND VS. AVAILABILITY .................................................................................................. 21 3.5 ROOTS AND RATIONALE FOR PROTECTION....................................................................................... 23 3.6 THE QUANDARY: DEMAND FOR LAND AND DEMAND FOR RESOURCES ........................................... 29 3.6.1 Malawi’s Resource Base and the Decline in Forested Area................................................. 29 3.6.2 Consumption of Woody Resources: Sustainable Supply vs. Demand ................................... 30 3.6.3 Potential Revenue from Official Income Generating Use of Protected Areas...................... 33 3.7 AGRICULTURAL SCHEMES................................................................................................................ 34 4. STUDY OVERVIEW........................................................................................................................ 37 4.1 STUDY APPROACH AND REPORT ORGANIZATION............................................................................. 37 4.2 SELECTION OF PROTECTED AREAS FOR INTENSIVE STUDY............................................................... 37 4.3 SUMMARY OF METHODS.................................................................................................................. 38 4.4 REPOSITORIES OF PLUS PRODUCTS ................................................................................................ 40 4.5 LEVEL II PROTECTED AREA DESCRIPTIONS ..................................................................................... 40 4.5.1 Mulanje Forest Reserve ........................................................................................................ 41 4.5.2 Zomba-Malosa Forest Reserves............................................................................................ 41 4.5.3 Liwonde National Park ......................................................................................................... 42 4.5.4 Dzalanyama Ranch and Forest Reserve ............................................................................... 43 4.5.5 Vwaza Wildlife Reserve......................................................................................................... 43 5. NATURE OF THE RESOURCE ..................................................................................................... 45 5.1 AGRICULTURAL SUITABILITY........................................................................................................... 45 5.1.1 Agricultural Suitability Model Design .................................................................................. 45 5.1.2 Agricultural Suitability Model Results.................................................................................. 46 5.2 EROSION HAZARD ........................................................................................................................... 47 5.2.1 Erosion Hazard Model Design.............................................................................................. 48 5.2.2 Erosion Hazard Model Results ............................................................................................. 50 5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL SUITABILITY ........................................................................................................ 53 5.3.1 Environmental Suitability Model Design .............................................................................. 53 5.3.2 Environmental Suitability: Beyond the Focus on Erosion.................................................... 53 5.3.3 Environmental Suitability Model Results.............................................................................. 54 6. PRESSURE ON THE RESOURCE................................................................................................. 56 6.1 POPULATION PRESSURE ................................................................................................................... 56 6.1.1 Direct Population Pressure Model Design ........................................................................... 57 6.1.2 Potential Population Pressure Model Design....................................................................... 57 6.2 ACCESS MODEL............................................................................................................................... 58 6.2.1 Access Model Design ............................................................................................................ 58 6.2.2 Potential Population Model Results...................................................................................... 59 6.2.3 Access Model Results............................................................................................................ 60 6.2.4 Population Pressure and Access Combined.......................................................................... 60 1 7. COMMUNITY-LEVEL RESOURCE UTILIZATION ................................................................. 62 7.1 METHODOLOGY............................................................................................................................... 62 7.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF PROTECTED AREA COMMUNITIES .................................... 65 7.2.1 Labor Availability ................................................................................................................. 65 7.2.2 Land Availability................................................................................................................... 66 7.2.3 Household Incomes and Poverty Estimates .......................................................................... 67 7.3 PROTECTED AREA RESOURCE UTILIZATION PATTERNS.................................................................... 75 7.4 THE ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE OF PROTECTED AREAS RESOURCES .................................................. 82 7.5 RESOURCE ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................................. 85 8. IMPACT ON THE RESOURCE ..................................................................................................... 87 8.1 LAND COVER MAPPING ................................................................................................................... 87 8.1.1 Image Data Acquisition and Description.............................................................................. 87 8.1.2 Earlier Land Cover Mapping Using Satellite Images in Malawi.......................................... 88 8.1.3 Image Processing.................................................................................................................. 89 8.1.4 Land Cover Mapping Results................................................................................................ 92 8.2 LAND COVER CHANGE .................................................................................................................... 94 8.2.1 Impact Model Design............................................................................................................ 94 8.2.2 Impact Model Results............................................................................................................ 94 8.2.3 Mulanje Forest Reserve Impact Model Results..................................................................... 95 8.2.4 Zomba-Malosa Forest Reserves Impact Model Results ........................................................ 97 8.2.5 Liwonde Impact Model Results ........................................................................................... 100 8.2.6 Dzalanyama Forest Reserve Impact Model Results............................................................ 102 8.2.7 Vwaza Wildlife Reserve Impact Model Results ................................................................... 103 8.3 IMPACT AND ACCESS..................................................................................................................... 105 8.4 IMPACT AND POPULATION PRESSURE ............................................................................................ 106 9. NATIONAL LEVEL RESULTS .................................................................................................... 108 9.1 AGRICULTURE SUITABILITY MODEL FOR ALL PROTECTED AREAS ................................................. 108 9.1.1 National Agricultural Suitability Model Design ................................................................