Strategic Regional Fall Analysis 2019 Planning & Analysis TABLE OF CONTENTS District Overview…... 3 Regional Dynamics…………………………………… 51 Introduction…………………………………………………… 3 Student Demographics……………………………. 52 Enrollment Context…………………………………… 6 SPF by Grade Level………………................ 53 Enrollment Forecasts……………………………… 8 School Choice…………............................. 54 Inter-District Movement…………………………… 13 Summary..……………………………………………………… 56 SPF Overview…………………………………………….. 15 Demographics……………………………………………. 16 Northwest….…..…... 57 School Choice Overview…………............ 18 Enrollment and Forecast Capacity………. 58 Featured Analysis……………………………………… 21 Residential Development…………………………. 59 Summary of Regional Gaps…………………. 29 Regional Dynamics……………………………………. 60 Student Demographics……………………………… 61 Far Northeast…..…... 30 SPF by Grade Level………………................. 62 Enrollment and Forecast Capacity……… 31 School Choice………….............................. 63 Residential Development………………………. 32 Summary..………………………………………………………. 65 Regional Dynamics…………………………………… 33 Student Demographics……………………………. 34 Southwest….…..…... 66 SPF by Grade Level………………................ 35 Enrollment and Forecast Capacity………. 67 School Choice…………............................. 36 Residential Development………………………… 68 Summary..……………………………………………………… 38 Regional Dynamics……………………………………. 69 Student Demographics……………………………… 70 Near Northeast…..… 39 SPF by Grade Level………………................ 71 Enrollment and Forecast Capacity……… 40 School Choice………….............................. 72 Residential Development………………………… 41 Summary..……………………………………………………… 74 Regional Dynamics…………………………………… 42 Student Demographics…………………………… 43 Southeast…..…..…... 75 SPF by Grade Level………………................ 44 Enrollment and Forecast Capacity………. 76 School Choice…………............................. 45 Residential Development…………………………. 77 Summary..……………………………………………………… 47 Regional Dynamics……………………………………. 78 Student Demographics……………………………… 79 Central……...…..…... 48 SPF by Grade Level………………................. 80 Enrollment and Forecast Capacity……… 49 School Choice………….............................. 81 Residential Development………………………… 50 Summary..………………………………………………………. 83 Executive Summary Recent changes in the city of Denver have influenced the landscape of Denver Public Schools (DPS). The population boom has led to a more affluent population and greater housing demand, resulting in rapidly rising housing costs throughout the city. The population has also gotten younger, as young adults, who are less likely to have children, have flocked to the city. Additionally, lower birth rates have impacted city demographics, following the trend of the United States overall. For DPS, the implications are numerous. This year’s Strategic Regional Analysis (SRA) explores these implications at the district and regional levels through the lenses of enrollment, capacity, performance, and equity. It also uses current and historical trends to forecast where these dynamics may take DPS over the next 5 years. The data throughout the report this year tell a story of a district on the cusp of change, and the details are vital for strategic planning. Of these stories, the following are the most prevalent: • Continued elementary enrollment declines in the Southwest, Northwest, and Central regions of the city will put increased pressure on schools, and may impact the ability of schools to provide programs, specials, and support services. • Continued enrollment growth in the Near Northeast and Far Northeast regions will necessitate strategies for managing capacity. • Students of color and FRL students attend high-performing schools at a lower rate than White and non-FRL students. Our communities, schools, and district leaders have the ability to determine how these stories will unfold over the coming years. The details in this report can help inform policies that will ensure the stories develop in a way that is beneficial for every student. Introduction The Strategic Regional Analysis The SRA informs the Call for New (SRA) details the current state of Quality Schools, the Facility Allocation enrollment, capacity, performance, Policy and Placement Process, and and equity by region, and identifies many other key parts of the school gaps in each area that may require planning process, as shown below. district intervention. The Call for New Quality Schools articulates priority needs for new This yields an understanding of where schools or additional capacity in the capacity and equity gaps exist and district. It engages new school which areas will need facility support applicants and communities, and due to growth, and which may need facilitates quality reviews to meet strategies for managing enrollment needs identified throughout the declines. district. Assignment of students to schools based on student preferences and school priorities using a common tool. Unified Choice Evaluates new school proposals for quality Approvals School Comprehensive and potential facility and Facility Performance report card that is placement based on Placements Framework consistent across applications and governance type. community input. Solicits new school Call for Strategic Identifies gaps in a proposals to meet Quality Regional Analysis regional context. gaps in offerings by Schools region. Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 4 Geographic Organization The SRA provides a district-wide overview followed by an in-depth analysis of the 6 planning regions shown on the map below. These regions correspond with the Regional Networks created in 2019. Denver Public Schools Planning Regions and Regional Networks Far Northeast = FNE Near Northeast = NNE Central = CEN Northwest = NW Southwest = SW Southeast = SE Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 5 Historical Enrollment Overall DPS enrollment increased marginally from 2018 to 2019, primarily due to new growth in ECE. However, elementary declines and slowing middle school growth are likely to lead to overall enrollment declines in the next few years. DPS has nearly 1,000 fewer elementary students in 2019 than it did in 2018. Elementary enrollment has been declining for more than 5 years, and the rate of decline has doubled within the past few years. ECE, high school, and middle school, on the other hand, all have more students this year. Yet, the middle and high school growth combined is only slightly higher than the elementary declines. Additionally, the rate of increase for both middle and high school has halved in the past five years, and will continue to do so as the smaller elementary cohorts advance. Total DPS ECE-12 Enrollment 100,000 90,150 91,429 92,331 92,984 93,356 93,815 84,424 87,398 90,000 79,423 81,870 80,000 21,530 22,641 23,500 24,600 25,221 25,920 20,077 20,670 70,000 18,889 19,430 60,000 18,557 18,887 19,341 19,677 19,978 16,343 17,049 17,640 20,263 50,000 15,662 40,000 30,000 39,296 40,470 41,448 42,768 43,851 43,721 43,329 42,619 41,729 40,766 20,000 10,000 0 5,576 5,627 5,850 6,320 6,212 6,180 6,161 6,088 6,428 6,866 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ECE Elementary Middle High The percent growth of enrollment is slightly higher this year due to new ECE growth from the addition of seats with community partners. Nevertheless, there has been an overall downward trend since 2013. This is largely attributable to lower birth rates, demographic changes, and increased housing prices throughout most of Denver. These changes have resulted in lower student yield per household and lower household turnover. DPS ECE-12 Enrollment Percent Growth * Note that the 2019 enrollment numbers used throughout this 3.5 document are based on 3.1 3.1 3.1 preliminary 2019 October Count numbers and official October Count enrollment 1.4 1.4 could be different than reported 1.0 here. These numbers will be 0.7 0.5 updated once DPS Planning 0.4 receives official October Count data from CDE. October Count is a count of funded students. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Denver Public Schools | Strategic Regional Analysis | Fall 2019 6 Enrollment Drivers The factors driving enrollment declines will most strongly influence enrollment change in coming years. Recently, the primary factors of enrollment growth have been DRIVERS OF RECENT residential (particularly single-family) development and population GROWTH growth. In the next several years there will be significant development in the Stapleton, DIA, and Gateway neighborhoods. Some of this development will be multi-family and townhome units with lower student yields, but all three neighborhoods will also Residential Development have considerable development of single-family detached homes, which tend to yield high rates of students. These units will contribute to most of the enrollment growth in the district in the next few years. Population Growth Another contributor to enrollment has been the dramatic population increases in recent years. However, as housing cost are driven up and birth rates are driven down even further by a younger population, the raw population growth will contribute less and less to enrollment growth. DRIVERS OF FUTURE The primary factors driving the slowing of enrollment growth are DECLINES declining birth rates and rapidly increasing housing prices. Reflecting the national trend of declining birth rates, consistently declining birth rates across the city have led to elementary Demographic Shifts enrollment declines since 2014. Middle school declines are possible as