Report No: AUS0001412 . Gabon Poverty Assessment . MARCH 2020 . POVERTY AND EQUITY GLOBAL PRACTICE . © 2017 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. {YEAR OF PUBLICATION}. {TITLE}. © World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. 2 Gabon Poverty Assessment March 2020 3 Acknowledgement The members of the core team that prepared this report are Nadia Belhaj Hassine Belghith (GPV07, TTL), Pierre de Boisséson (GPV01) and Shohei Nakamura (GPV01). Additional support was provided by Dina Nirina Ranarifidy (GSU19), Shiho Nagaki (GGOAC), Olivia D'aoust (GSU19), Tom Mosher (Master student, Georgetown University), Sonia Barbara Ndong (GMTA), David Elmaleh (GMTA), Abdoullahi Beidou (GPV01), Dominic Haazen (GHN13), and Harisoa Danielle Rasolonjatovo Andriamihamina (GED13). Dan Pavelesku (consultant) supported the estimation of poverty trends using small area technique, and Harold Coulombe (consultant) prepared the poverty estimates at the disaggregated geographic and sub-city levels based on poverty mapping. Throughout the development of this report, the team benefitted from fruitful discussions with Nobuo Yoshida (GPV01), Emmanuel Skoufias (GPV01), Mazen Bouri (AFCC1), Carin Clert (AFCC1), and Issa Diaw (AFCC1). The team would like to extend its sincere thanks to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the National Statistical Office (Direction Générale de la Statistique), the General Direction of Prospective (Direction Générale de la Prospective), and the General Direction of Economy and Fiscal Policy (Direction Générale de l’Economie et de la Politique Fiscale) of Gabon for the important support and critical feedback provided throughout the preparation of the report. The team gratefully acknowledges guidance from Andrew Dabalen (Practice Manager GPV07), Pierella Paci (Practice Manager GPV01), Alice Ouedraogo (Resident Representative, AFMGA), Elisabeth Huybens (Regional Director, EA2DR), and Abdoulaye Seck (Country Director, AFCC1). Finally, the team offers its sincere thanks to Martin Buchara (GPV01), Arlette Sourou (GPV01), Antoinette Kounda Kiki (AFMGA), Sidonie Jocktane (AFMGS) and Mamma Alim Ahmed (AFCC1) for their valuable assistance in arranging meetings and workshops with key government counterparts and stakeholders and in supporting the team in preparing this project. 4 Table of Content Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 1: Country Context ................................................................................................. 24 I. Achievements ......................................................................................................................................... 25 II. Challenges............................................................................................................................................... 29 Chapter 2: Incidence of Poverty and Shared prosperity .................................................... 34 I. Incidence and Trends of Poverty ............................................................................................................ 34 II. The Incidence of Growth and Shared Prosperity .................................................................................... 39 III. The Structure of Inequality ..................................................................................................................... 41 IV. Social Inclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 47 Chapter 3: The Geographic Pattern of Poverty .................................................................. 50 I. The Spatial Disparity of Poverty Across Gabon ..................................................................................... 50 II. A Deep Dive into Urban Poverty ............................................................................................................ 60 Chapter 4: The Profile of the Poor ....................................................................................... 68 I. Socio-Demographic Characteristics of the Poor ..................................................................................... 68 II. Living Conditions and Asset Ownership ................................................................................................ 71 III. Social Protection and Vulnerability to Shocks........................................................................................ 75 Chapter 5: Multidimensional Poverty .................................................................................. 82 I. Non-monetary Dimensions of Wellbeing ............................................................................................... 82 II. Multidimensional Poverty Index............................................................................................................. 93 Chapter 6: Employment and Poverty ................................................................................... 97 References ............................................................................................................................. 104 Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 109 Appendix A: Structure of Inequality ......................................................................................................... 109 Appendix B: Multivariate Regressions and Determinant of Consumption and Poverty ........................... 115 Appendix C: Multidimensional Poverty Index .......................................................................................... 118 Appendix D: Poverty maps........................................................................................................................ 121 5 List of figures Figure 1.1: Crude Oil Production, 1970-2016 (in ton of oil equivalent) ............................................................... 24 Figure 1.2: Manganese Ore Production, 1970-2016 (in metric ton) ..................................................................... 24 Figure 1.3: Demographic Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 25 Figure 1.4: Economic Performance ....................................................................................................................... 27 Figure 1.5: Human Development and Living Conditions Outcomes .................................................................... 27 Figure 1.6: Youth Unemployment, 1991-2017 (percentage of total labor force ages 15-24) ............................... 28 Figure 1.7: Unemployment Rates, 2017 (percentage) ........................................................................................... 28 Figure 1.8: Geographical Pattern of Economic Activities by Main Cities ............................................................ 30 Figure 1.9: Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2007 and 2017 (percentile rank) ................................................ 32 Figure 1.10: Doing Business Scores, 2019 (percentage) ....................................................................................... 32 Figure 1.11: Public Expenditure (percentage of GDP) ......................................................................................... 33 Figure 2.1: Poverty Incidence, 2017 (percentage)................................................................................................. 34 Figure 2.2: Trends in Poverty and Number of Poor, 2005 and 2017 .................................................................... 36 Figure 2.3: Subjective Poverty, 2005 – 2017, Percent .......................................................................................... 38 Figure 2.4: Subjective Measures of Financial and Welfare Stability, 2017 (percentage of households) .............. 39 Figure 2.5: Inequality by Gini Coefficient, 2005 and 2017................................................................................... 40 Figure 2.6: Growth and Redistribution Effects of Poverty Reduction (percentage points) .................................. 40 Figure 2.8: Determinants of Inequality Between Urban and Rural Areas ............................................................