Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” R E A L E S T A T E R E S E A R C H Kuwait Real Estate: February 2008 Research Highlights: Commentary and Analysis Examining the trends and developments concerning the 1. Executive Summary real estate sector in Kuwait Kuwait’s real estate sector has experienced significant growth in the last five years, triggered by several structural factors such as economic expansion driven by high oil prices, favorable demographics, and abundant liquidity. Real GDP growth was sustained above 10.0% since 2003, where oil prices grew by 11.3% y-o-y to reach a new high of KD18.8 Bn in 2006. Supported by strong liquidity, total credit facilities granted to the real estate sector has increased at a CAGR of 23.1% over the period 2001-2006. Going forward, we expect rising oil prices and increasing oil production along with government’s diversification program aiming at developing non-oil sectors to sustain GDP growth. MENA Real Estate Team Consequently, we expect Kuwait’s real estate and construction sectors to benefit from $8bn worth of private investments and $3bn in government investments over the next five years. The growth in real estate sector has registered a CAGR of 34.0% for the period from 2002 till 2006. Factors such as a) strong increase in numbers of expatriates; b) young demographic profile; c) increasing disposable incomes; and d) growing private sector participation have supported this growth. Consequently, real estate prices are expected to continue appreciating in the short to medium term across the majority of the segments although this growth in real estate prices in general would be lower, as prices have already increased significantly during the past few years. Currently, demand is outstripping supply in all aspects of the Kuwait’s real estate sector – Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Retail. In the private housing sub-segment, a total of 79,894, applications were outstanding and 30,414 individuals were on the waiting list with the Public Authority for Housing and Welfare (PAHW) as of the second half of 2007. On the supply side, according to Ministry of Housing figures, between 1994 and 2005, only 19,000 state private housing units were built. The residential real estate segment will likely face a shortage in supply in the medium term. We expect unmet demand for private housing units to reach approximately 100,000 by 2010. Similarly, the Istithmari (investment properties) sub-segment also has been witnessing a shortage of units due to the growing influx of expatriates following year 2003, which witnessed the Iraqi war. The Kuwait Financial Centre growth in demand for private housing units and scarce availability of “Markaz” land in major governorates has been reflected in the prices. Average land price of private housing units in Kuwait grew by 30-35% y-o-y to P.O. Box 23444, Safat 13095, reach KD550 per sqm in 2007. Furthermore, average Istithmari rentals Tel Kuwait have expanded at a CAGR of 22.5% over the period 2002-2007, and Tel: +965 224 8000 where in 2006, average Istithmari rentals grew at 9.0% y-o-y to KD2.95 Fax: +965 242 5828 per sqm. We expect growth in Istithmari rentals at moderate levels in markaz.com the medium term. Going forward, we believe outer city Istithmari properties will provide higher returns compared to inner city areas, as Kuwait Financial Centre S.A.K. “Markaz” 1 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH February 2008 well as, high rental growth and lower land value appreciation in outer city areas will lead to compression in cap rates at higher rates when compared to inner city areas. In the office segment, Kuwait’s strong economic growth has contributed Rentals for class A office space a positive business environment in the country, which has attracted will increase at lower rates in more foreign companies to participate in different sectors of the the medium term (3-4 years) economy. Due to existing shortage in supply of office space, rents and and start decreasing in the prices have risen significantly in the office segment. Going forward, we long term anticipate rentals for class A office space to increase at lower rates in the medium term (3-4 years) and start decreasing in the long term (5 years and above). Further, we expect trends in the outer city office property to mirror those of Istithmari properties, providing higher returns compared to inner city areas. The retail property is also witnessing growth with the shifting trend towards construction of large malls. Demand for retail space is expected to continue in the short term with many foreign and regional retail brands entering the Kuwait’s market in the light of favorable consumer dynamics and regulations. Consequently, we expect retail rentals to witness an upward trend in the short term. As for conventional retail properties, our assessment tends to stay bullish even in the long term. On the tourism front, Kuwait has been witnessing an increase in the number of tourists driving up hotel occupancy rates. A majority of hotel room supply is expected to come online by the end of 2008 and is bound to create an over-capacity in the market. As a result, we believe that Kuwait may undergo lower occupancy rates and increased pressure on average room rates until the absorption of supply growth. The industrial segment has benefited from increased activities, primarily in the oil and gas sector. Higher hydrocarbon prices and rich availability of oil reserves has led to the higher expenditure by the government in various industrial infrastructure projects within the oil & gas and energy sector. Furthermore, establishment of FTZs and allowing 100% ownership within the zone is likely is likely to encourage the setting up of new industrial facilities. This, in turn, will boost the demand for industrial properties, leading to increase in prices and rentals of industrial properties, going forward. Going forward, several structural triggers such as rising expatriates population, growing private sector investments and positive economic outlook, are in place to ensure sustainability of the growth in Kuwait’s Kuwait’s real estate sector is real estate sector. However, Kuwait’s real estate is heavily dependent on expected to sustain the growth the conditions of the economy, and the turbulence in the region. A On the back of positive slump in the economy can evaporate the projected activity in the sector economic outlook throughout Kuwait. Thus, the positive outlook for Kuwait’s real estate sector could be derailed by any unexpected contraction in the country’s economy and instability in the region’s geopolitical situation. Kuwait Financial Centre “Markaz” 2 REAL ESTATE RESEARCH February 2008 2. Overview, Commentary, and Analysis I. Market Performance: a) Contribution of Construction and Real Estate Sectors to the Economy Kuwait’s economy has experienced significant growth in the last five Led by high oil price, Kuwait’s years, backed by high oil prices and increased oil production levels. economy has witnessed Kuwait’s oil production has increased by 40% since 2002 to reach in significant growth in last five 2007 its full capacity. Furthermore, according to IMF, Kuwait’s years accumulated reserves from oil are the highest among the GCC countries; it will total 300%-400% of GDP in the next six years. Oil revenues in the last few years have also pushed liquidity in the market up. Money supply, or M2, has been increasing significantly since 2004 where it supply expanded by 21.7% in 2006, as compared to 12.1% and 12.3% in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Although, the Kuwait’s economy is heavily dependent on the oil sector, real estate and construction sectors also play significant roles in the country’s economic growth. The real estate sector registered a CAGR of 34.0% for the period from 2002 till 2006. However, growth in both the real estate and construction sectors is not proportional to GDP growth. Abundant liquidity, favorable demographics, economic growth and repatriation of funds have been the major drivers of the boom in real estate sector over the last few years. However, the real estate sector’s contribution to GDP decreased to 4.4% in 2006, compared to 8.4% in Although the real estate sector 2002. Similarly, contribution of the construction sector contracted to has grown by 34% from 2002 1.6% in 2006 from 2.7% in 2002 (Refer exhibit 1). The combined to 2006, its contribution to contribution of the sectors to Kuwait’s GDP declined to 6.0% in 2006 Kuwait’s GDP declined from from 8.5% and 6.7% in 2004 and 2005, respectively. This decrease can 8.4% to 4.4%, as the share of be attributed to the significant increase in the oil & gas sector's share in the oil & gas sector increased Kuwait’s GDP (55%), due to the steep rise in oil prices in recent years. The growth in Kuwait’s real estate and construction sector has come at a cost. Kuwait's inflation rate surged in December 2007 to a record 8.3% compared to 3.9% during the same month of 2006, exacerbated by the steep rise in real estate prices. The cost of housing in Kuwait, which has a 27% weighting in the consumer price index, rose an annual 12.6% in September 2007, compared with 7.1% in August 2007. Going forward, we expect high oil prices and increasing production to sustain GDP growth. Consequently, we expect Kuwait’s economic outlook to remain positive. In addition, Kuwait’s diversification program to lower the economy’s dependence on oil and gas revenues and its plan of investing $11 Bn over the next five years, further enhances economic outlook.