Volume 7 Volume 7.8 Outline Business Case TR010021 APFP Regulation 5(2)(q) Revision 0 Planning Act 2008 Infrastructure Planning (Applications: Prescribed Forms and Procedure) Regulations 2009 April 2016 Page 1 of 161 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case Document Reference: 7.8 THIS PAGE HAS INTENTIONALLY BEEN LEFT BLANK Page 2 of 161 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case Document Reference: 7.8 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case 7.8 Planning Act 2008 Infrastructure Planning The Infrastructure Planning (Applications: Prescribed Forms and Procedure) Regulations 2009 Document Reference: 7.8 Internal Code: ST150030-PLN-ZZZ-ZZ-DSD-ZZ-0084 Regulation Number: 5(2)(q) Author: Transport for London Rev. Date Approved By Signature Description 0 29/04/2016 David Rowe (TfL For DCO Lead Sponsor) Application Page 3 of 161 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case Document Reference: 7.8 Contents List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................. 12 Glossary of Terms .................................................................................................. 16 SUMMARY ............................................................................................................... 21 1. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................... 49 1.1 Description ................................................................................................... 49 1.2 The approach to the business case ............................................................. 49 1.3 Investment decision making process ........................................................... 50 1.4 The role of the Mayor of London and TfL .................................................... 52 1.5 River Crossings Programme ........................................................................ 52 1.6 Consultation to date on the Scheme ............................................................ 54 1.7 Structure of this report ................................................................................. 55 2. THE STRATEGIC CASE ............................................................................. 57 2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 57 2.2 Strategic policy context ................................................................................ 59 2.3 The transport and socio-economic overview and issues ............................. 63 2.4 Transport problem 1 – congestion ............................................................... 78 2.5 Transport problem 2 – closures and incidents ............................................. 83 2.6 Transport problem 3 – lack of network resilience ........................................ 85 2.7 Effects on the economy ............................................................................... 89 2.8 Effects on public transport ........................................................................... 96 2.9 Effects on the freight industry ...................................................................... 99 2.10 Environmental effects ................................................................................ 100 2.11 The problems now and in the future .......................................................... 100 2.12 Summary of the case for change ............................................................... 105 2.13 Scheme objectives .................................................................................... 107 2.14 Option development and assessment ....................................................... 108 2.15 Preferred Option – the Silvertown Tunnel concept .................................... 111 2.16 The role of road user charging ................................................................... 113 2.17 Stakeholders .............................................................................................. 115 Page 4 of 161 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case Document Reference: 7.8 3. THE ECONOMIC CASE ............................................................................ 117 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 117 3.2 Headline scheme benefits ......................................................................... 120 3.3 User charging and the economic case ...................................................... 123 3.4 Transport economic efficiency (TEE) ......................................................... 124 3.5 Public accounts (PA) ................................................................................. 127 3.6 AMCB results ............................................................................................. 129 3.7 Sensitivity tests .......................................................................................... 130 3.8 Distributional analysis ................................................................................ 136 3.9 Social Analysis .......................................................................................... 138 3.10 Wider Impacts ............................................................................................ 139 3.11 Regeneration ............................................................................................. 140 3.12 Appraisal Summary Table ......................................................................... 143 3.13 Value for money statement ........................................................................ 144 4. THE FINANCIAL CASE ............................................................................ 145 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 145 4.2 Project costs .............................................................................................. 145 4.3 Financing ................................................................................................... 145 5. THE COMMERCIAL CASE ....................................................................... 147 5.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 147 5.2 Proposed commercial structure ................................................................. 147 5.3 Risk transfer, pricing framework and payment and charging mechanisms 147 5.4 Procurement route ..................................................................................... 148 6. THE MANAGEMENT CASE ..................................................................... 149 6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 149 6.2 Evidence of similar projects ....................................................................... 149 6.3 Programme linkages .................................................................................. 149 6.4 Key project assumptions ........................................................................... 150 6.5 Governance, organisational structure and roles ........................................ 150 6.6 Independent peer review group ................................................................. 152 Page 5 of 161 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case Document Reference: 7.8 6.7 Tunnel safety design and consultation group ............................................ 152 6.8 Programme/project plan ............................................................................ 152 6.9 Project team organisation and work streams ............................................. 153 6.10 Project management and administration ................................................... 154 6.11 Assurance and approvals plan .................................................................. 155 6.12 External stakeholders ................................................................................ 157 6.13 Consents ................................................................................................... 157 6.14 Project controls and reporting .................................................................... 157 6.15 Document management ............................................................................ 158 7. CONCLUSION .......................................................................................... 159 APPENDIX A APPRAISAL SUMMARY TABLE ................................................... 161 Page 6 of 161 Silvertown Tunnel Outline Business Case Document Reference: 7.8 List of Tables Summary Table 1: Summary economic results (£m, PV) ......................................... 31 Summary Table 2: Summary economic results (initial) by users (£m, PV) ............... 32 Summary Table 3: Summary economic results (adjusted for reliability benefits) by users (£m PV) .......................................................................................................... 33 Summary Table 4: Summary net user benefits (initial) by users (£m PV, London VoT) ......................................................................................................................... 33 Summary Table 5: Summary net user benefits (adjusted for reliability) by users (£m PV, London VoT) ...................................................................................................... 33 Summary Table 6: Scenario % change in population and employment forecasts from 2012 base case .......................................................................................................