INTEGRATED TRANSPORT STRATEGY FOR THE PERIOD UNTIL 2030 MAY 2017 Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS 2 I. INTRODUCTION 13 II. STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK 13 2.1 EUROPEAN UNION TRANSPORT POLICY 13 2.2. NATIONAL TRANSPORT POLICY 17 2.3 NATIONAL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS 19 III. NATIONAL OBJECTIVES AND PRIORITIES 21 IV. SITUATION ANALYSIS 22 4.1 DATABASE 22 4.1.1 ORGANISATION FOR DATA COLLECTION 22 4.1.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE DATA 24 4.1.3 ELECTRONIC DATABASE 26 4.2 MACROECONOMIC, DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIAL ANALYSIS 28 4.2.1 MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS 28 4.2.2 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS 34 4.2.3 SOCIAL ANALYSIS 39 4.2.4 INDUSTRY 40 4.2.5 INTERNATIONAL TRADE 50 4.2.6 TRASNPORT AND ENVIRONMENT 57 4.3 RAILWAY TRANSPORT 62 4.3.1 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK 62 4.3.2 PERFORMANCE AND VOLUME INDICATORS OF Rail TRANSPORT 62 4.3.3 MARKET STRUCTURE 66 4.3.4 RAILWAY INFRASTRUCTURE 81 4.3.5 ROLLING STOCK 87 4.3.6 SAFETY AND SECURITY 88 4.3.7 INTEROPERABILITY 88 4.3.8 INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS 89 4.4 ROAD TRANSPORT 91 4.4.1 PERFORMANCE AND VOLUME INDICATORS OF ROAD TRANSPORT 91 4.4.2 MARKET STRUCTURE 91 4.4.3 ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE 105 4.4.4 SAFETY AND SECURITY 115 4.4.5 ANALYSIS OF THE ROAD VEHICLES STRUCTURE AND CONDITION 116 4.5 MARITIME AND INLAND TRANSPORT 117 4.5.1 INDICATORS FOR THE WORK AND VOLUME OF TRANSPORT IN THE PORTS 117 4.5.2 MARKET STRUCTURE OF SEA AND RIVER TRANSPORT 118 4.5.3 PORT INFRASTRUCTURE 120 4.5.5 ACCESIBILITY OF TRANSPORT SERVICeS 131 4.5.6 SAFETY AND SECURITY 133 4.6 TRANSPORT 135 4.6.1 PERFORMANCE AND VOLUME INDICATORS OF air TRANSPORT 135 4.6.2 MARKET STRUCTURE 138 4.6.3 AIRPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 149 4.6.4 AIRPLANES 163 4.6.5 SAFETY AND SECURITY 165 4.6.6 INTELLIGENT TRANSPORT SYSTEMS IN AIR TRANSPORT 166 4.7 INTERMODAL TRANSPORT 172 4.7.1 INTERMODAL TERMINALS 172 4.7.2 DEVELOPMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ZONES IN BULGARIA 176 4.8 TRANSPORT SERVICE QUALITY 177 4.8.1 FREIGHT TRANSPORT 177 4.8.2 PASSENGER TRANSPORT 179 4.9 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES, OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 180 2 Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications V. FORECASTS OF THE DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT SERVICES 187 5.1. ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT SERVICES 187 5.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR TRANSPORT SERVICES 188 5.2.1 IDENTIFICATION OF THE FUTURE PASSENGER TRANSPORT NEEDS, WHICH WOULD OCCUR IN A FUTURE "DO NOTHING” SITUATION 188 5.2.2. IDENTIFICATION OF THE FUTURE FREIGHT TRANSPORT NEEDS, WHICH WOULD ARISE IN A FUTURE "DO NOTHING” SITUATION 190 5.3 FORECASTS OF FREIGHT TURNOVER AND PASSENGERS TRANSPORTED IN PORTS 192 5.4 FORECASTS FOR COMMODITIES AND PASSENGERS TRANSPORTED BY AIR 200 V. ASSESSMENT OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY 202 6.1 SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF THE ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY 202 6.2 MAIN FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS 205 6.2.1 IDENTIFIED PROBLEMS FOR ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY 205 6.2.2 GOOD PRACTICES AND METHODS IMPLEMENTED BY THE BENEFICIARIES 207 6.2.3 MEASURES FOR ENHANCING OF ADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY FROM THE BENEFICIARIES 208 6.2.4 TRAINING NEEDS OF THE BENEFICIARIES 210 VII. OBJECTIVES AND MEASURES 212 7.1 METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINING MEASURES 212 7.2 IDENTIFIED PROBLEM 214 7.3 PARTICULATE OBJECTIVES 216 7.4 MEASURES TO ACHIEVE SPECIFIC GOALS 218 7.4.1 MEASURES TO STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 1 INCREASING THE EFFECTIVENESS AND COMPETITIVENESS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR 218 7.4.2 MEASURES TO STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 2. IMPROVEMENT OF THE TRANSPORT CONNECTIVITY AND ACCESS (INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL) 224 7.4.3 MEASURES TO TRATEGIC OBJECTIVE 3. LIMITING THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. 227 7.4.4. INDICATORS FOR ASSESSMENT FOR OBJECTIVE ACHIEVEMENT 228 VIII. PROJECTS AND SCENARIOS 230 8.1. METHODOLOGY OF PROJECT IDENTIFICATION 230 8.2 LIST OF PROJECTS 235 8.3 BUDGET AND FINANCIAL PLAN FOR THE PROJECTS 242 3 Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications LIST OF TABLES Table 4-1 Medium-term GDP forecast Table 4-2 Long-term GDP forecast for the Republic of Bulgaria Distribution of the income per member of household by decile groups for 2014 Table 4-3 and assessment of the differentiation and polarization thereof Table 4-4 Main data for the processing industry Table 4-5 Number of countries partners and key partners by commodity groups for import and export Number of partner countries for import and export of the Top 20 partner countries by transport Table 4-6 modes Table 4-7 Structuring commodity groups for exports and imports by transport odes Table 4-8 Number of partner countries and key partners (Top 10) for import and export by structural groups Table 4-9 Number of delays of trains in 2015 when compared to 2010 Table 4-10 Unified classification of freight in transport (NST 20) Table 4-11 Average transport distance Table 4-12 Types of freight categorized in 10 groups Table 4-13 Values of the utility function Table 4-14 Values of the indicators for assessment of the concentration of the market Table 4-15 Share distribution of types of railways Table 4-16 List of railway lines part of the TEN-T network Table 4-17 Length of the railway network part of the TEN-T network NTP and MTP for 24-hours for railway sections of the railway network in Bulgaria for regular non- Table 4-18 parallel and partial-block train schedule Table 4-19 Maximal transportability Freight transported for hire or reward by road freight transport: domestic transport, import, export, Table 4-20 and transit Freight transported by road freight transport by types of commodities and by regions (thousand Table 4-21 tonnes) Table 4-22 Passengers transported and performance of the road transport for the period 2012-2015 Table 4-23 NRN length by road class as of 31.12.2015 (km) Table 4-24 Change in the length of the NRN by districts Table 4-25 Capacity and speed of the road vehicles in categories of road vehicles Table 4-26 Revenues from the road infrastructure Table 4-27 Main data from the existing port infrastructure of national significance in the region of Burgas Table 4-28 Main data from the existing port infrastructure of regional significance in the region of Burgas Table 4-29 Main data for port terminals of national significance in the region of VARNA Table 4-30 Main data for port terminals of regional significance in the region of VARNA Table 4-31 Main data for port terminals in the region of RUSE Table 4-32 Port terminals of national significance in the region of LOM and VIDIN Table 4-33 Capacity of ports of national and regional significance Table 4-34 Volume of international passenger transport carried by Bulgarian air carriers Table 4-35 Volume of domestic passenger transport carried by Bulgarian air carriers Table 4-36 Transport activity carried by “Bulgaria Air” for international regular transport Table 4-37 Transport activity carried by “Bulgaria Air” for international charter transport Table 4-38 Indicators of transport activity for regular domestic flights carried by “Bulgaria Air” AD Table 4-39 Indicators of transport activity for international charter flights carried by “Air Via” OOD Table 4-40 Indicators of the volume of international charter flights carried by “BH Air” Table 4-41 Indicators of the volume of international charter transport carried by “Bulgarian Air Charter” OOD Table 4-42 Indicators of the volume of international charter transport carried by “Heli Air” ООD Table 4-43 Indicators of the volume of international charter transport carried by „Air Max” ООD Table 4-44 Indicators of the volume of international charter transport carried by „Cargo Air” ООD Table 4-45 Air lines available to the population for the territory of the country Table 4-46 Information on the traffic at Sofia Airport Table 4-47 Information of the traffic at Varna Airport Table 4-48 Information on the traffic at Plovdiv Airport Table 4-49 Information on the traffic at Gorna Oryahovitsa Airport Table 4-50 Basic data for the aircraft fleet of the country Status, property and connections with other modes of transport of studied intermodal terminals in Table 4-51 Bulgaria Table 4-52 Design parameters of Plovdiv intermodal terminal 4 Ministry of Transport, Information Technology and Communications Table 4-53 Container traffic (forecast) within the zone of influence of Ruse IMT Table 4-54 Priorities, projects and measures for development of industrial zones in Bulgaria Table 4-55 Utility function values Table 4-56 Strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the transport sector Table 5-1 Forecasts of container turnover by areas of planning and time sections Table 5-2 Forecasts for the packaged commodities, which can be transported in containers. Table 5-3 Forecast for the freight turnover of bulk cereals by ports Table 5-4 Copper concentrates, forecast of the export through the Bulgarian ports (tonnes) Table 5-5 Copper concentrates, forecast of the import through the Bulgarian ports (tonnes) Table 5-6 Forecast of the import freight turnover of coals (tonnes) Table 5-7 Forecast of the freight turnover of bulk commodities by ports (tonnes) Table 5-8 Forecast of the import of metals by ports Table 5-9 Forecast of the freight turnover for the export of metals and metal products by ports Table 5-10 Forecast of the export of sulphuric acid by ports Table 5-11 Forecast of the freight turnover in the import of machines by ports Table 5-12 Liquid fuels handled in the Bulgarian ports (tonnes) Table 5-13 Forecast of the development of sea cruises (passengers) Table 5-14 Forecast of the development of river cruises (passengers) Table 5-15 Forecast for the passengers