IPSOS VIEWS UNDERSTANDING SOCIETY BEYOND POPULISM Foreword Editorial: Bobby Duffy Aalia Khan Daniel Cameron Information www.ipsos.com [email protected] Follow @IpsosMORI Foreword Welcome to this international edition camp, headed by then-Prime Minister digital age – does it move towards greater of Ipsos MORI Social Research Institute’s David Cameron, amplified these divisions personal freedoms or feed off cultural 03. 15. BRITAIN 27. INDIA Understanding Society – Beyond Populism. through an ‘elite-focussed’ campaign that anxiety and heighten polarities? In a country In our recent publications, we have painted underplayed issues like immigration and like India, where 283m are estimated to a picture of shifts in the public mood, erosion of sovereignty, which a large section be social media users, Desai explores the Foreword Why Britain voted Betting on humanity based on our own research and analysis. of the electorate cared deeply about. shifting common currency of ideas. by Bobby Duffy to leave the EU Is democracy the ghost in the But for this special edition we have looked Following a politically tumultuous And finally, we are delighted to have machine of our digital age? externally to see how a wide range of year after the EU referendum and the US political accounts from journalists Nick Matthew Goodwin different experts across many countries are Election, all eyes have been on the 2017 O’Malley from The Sydney Morning Herald interpreting the patterns we’re seeing - and French election. Le Monde’s eminent and Tracey Watkins, Political Editor and Santosh Desai what they might mean for the future. We’re journalist Gérard Courtois, takes us on Parliamentary Bureau Chief of Fairfax Media in WORLD 04. delighted to bring together in one place the campaign trail and tells us how the New Zealand. Both O’Malley and Watkins give some of the most influential voices and ‘insurgents’ from both sides of political us an account of the insurgent parties and Beyond populism FRANCE latest ideas that are shaping the debate. spectrum, En Marche! and Front National, political figures that are rising to the fore in 17. LATIN Our own major global survey on have turned the French political system mainstream politics, and what this means for AMERICA 30. populist trends highlights the importance ‘upside down’. Courtois documents the fall the Australian and New Zealand landscapes. Daniel Cameron & The big disruption of nativism and a sense across a wide of Marine Le Pen and argues that Macron’s We hope you enjoy reading this special Clifford Young The French Presidential The death of Latin variety of countries that the ‘system is victory – aided by the left and right – edition of Understanding Society, one year Election Special American populism? broken’. However, we conclude, as others signifies a deep desire for political renewal on from a momentous vote in the UK. We do in this edition, that populism as it’s and economic and social reform. do not usually showcase as many different Structural vs opportunistic commonly discussed is more of a political Moisés Naím, Distinguished Fellow at the external perspectives in our journal and Gérard Courtois populism strategy than a coherent ideology. There Carnegie Endowment and author, tells us tend to build more on our own research EUROPE 08. are certainly common themes – but the that power is shifting – it is now easier to and analysis. But this is such an important Carlos Waisman key is to understand what lies beneath and get, harder to use and easier to lose. Naím global topic, we think drawing on some Europe’s populism beyond in citizens’ beliefs, rather than try highlights some of the ‘ingredients’ he thinks of the key thinkers in the area will help problem to fit all global situations to one common ‘populist’ leaders have in common. inform the debate among our readers. As WORLD 20. phenomenon. Emily Ekins, Research Fellow at the Cato always, the usual caveat applies – the views In the same vein, Cas Mudde, Associate Institute, examines President Donald Trump’s expressed here are those of the authors, Cas Mudde How to be a populist 33. AUSTRALIA Professor at the University of Georgia voters, but also the social shifts in American not necessarily those of Ipsos MORI. reminds us that ‘populism’ is a useful society that led to the US election. Ekins We remain committed to understanding Power and populism in the concept in understanding contemporary argues that the ‘political elites’ have long society from the broad range of social and new world Hints of chaos European politics, but it should be applied avoided talking about the potential costs political research we and others conduct, The perils of Pauline Hanson’s as one of several ideas. of immigration for fear that it may magnify in the belief that this leads to better politics, BRITAIN 12. Moisés Naím One Nation Party In Britain it is the one year anniversary them. policy and practice. If you would like to of the EU referendum and we are We are also delighted to have a view discuss any of the research here, please get Anywheres vs delighted to have contributions from David from Latin America through the expert in touch. Nick O’Malley Somewheres Goodhart and Matthew Goodwin outlining lens of Professor Carlos H Waisman, and their explanations of the ‘leave’ vote. In from India, by Santosh Desai, managing How the EU referendum USA Goodhart’s view, Brexit and the election director of Futurebrands, and author of the exposed the new fault lines 24. of Donald Trump have been caused by a Times of India blog City City Bang Bang. that divide Britain NEW growing value divide between the people For Waisman, populism is structural in Latin The rise of Trump in a ZEALAND 36. from “Anywhere” – the educated and America, whereas it is opportunistic in the changing America Bobby Duffy David Goodhart mobile, and the people from “Somewhere” US and Europe. Managing Director, The rise and stall of – the more ‘rooted’. He argues that the EU Social media is playing an increasingly Ipsos MORI Emily Ekins populism? referendum vote was the Somewheres significant role in the way we live and Social Research Institute taking their chance to reject the Anywhere communicate, and consequently, how we Why New Zealand politics is worldview. participate in the democratic system. Desai business as usual @BobbyIpsosMORI Goodwin argues that the Remain questions the nature of democracy in a Tracy Watkins 2. The views and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of Ipsos. 3. Ipsos MORI - Understanding Society June 2017 Beyond populism Daniel WORLD Cameron Clifford Beyond populism Young The rise of populism has become a This description of less concentration global obsession in the last year, driven Figure ONE. of power among the few seems at by the major upsets in Brexit and Donald odds with other ‘big idea’ books of Trump’s Presidential election victory, but Around the world, people agree that ‘our government does not recent years, including Thomas Piketty’s with echoes in many other countries prioritise the concerns of people like me’ Capital in the Twenty-First Century, which throughout the world. Of course, AGREE DISAGREE outlines the incredible concentration of populism itself is nothing new: as the wealth and economic power at the top articles in this edition make clear, there 71% 21% Total of most societies over the last 40 years, have been many ‘populist’ movements 87% 11% Mexico a theme echoed in David Goodhart’s of varying levels of success and political 83% 12% S Africa distinction between “Somewhere” and persuasions over recent decades, 80% 14% Spain “Anywhere” people. particularly in Latin America and, more 77% 15% Italy But these ideas can be reconciled. recently, in western democracies in 77% 19% S Korea Power can become less stable, more Europe, the US and Australasia. 75% 16% Australia fleeting, but still be concentrated, and in Understanding the current wave of 75% 17% Brazil some ways more dangerous. As Naím populism in its many forms is a crucial 75% 21% Poland says, the loss of ‘superpowers’ of global lens to help us grasp what is going 74% 17% US authority could mean greater instability. on around the world. But the obvious 73% 15% France The combination of these conditions differences between the movements in 72% 18% GB – less stable control of power but different countries demonstrate that what 71% 19% Russia growing inequality and alienation – make is often called populism is not the single 71% 24% Peru the darker side of Naím’s thesis, possible coherent ideology people might believe. 69% 25% India paralysis of power or anarchy – in Unpicking what we mean by populism – 69% 27% Turkey effect, fragmentation – more likely and and how governments and others should 68% 22% Belgium important to understand. respond – is far from straightforward. 65% 23% Germany Our data suggests that while One thing is clear. There is a very 64% 25% Canada discontent may be common, the strong sense that regular people 63% 29% Argentina factors behind it are many and varied, feel they are being left behind by 60% 32% Indonesia and several are long-standing and establishment and political elites that 56% 34% Sweden mainstream currents of perception, don’t understand or care about them. 50% 21% Japan rather than the sudden change implied As Cas Mudde describes later in this by the latest media catchphrase. But Ipsos Global Trends Survey. 17,180 adults across 22 countries, online, 12 Sep – 11 Oct 2016 edition, the idea of “the people” vs. “the that doesn’t mean public opinion should If people think the economic system their economy is rigged.