University of St. Thomas Law Journal Volume 9 Article 2 Issue 1 Fall 2011 2011 Poverty, Islamist Extremism, and the Debacle of Doha Round Counter-Terrorism: Part One of a Trilogy - Agricultural Tariffs and Subsidies Raj Bhala Bluebook Citation Raj Bhala, Poverty, Islamist Extremism, and the Debacle of Doha Round Counter-Terrorism: Part One of a Trilogy - Agricultural Tariffs na d Subsidies, 9 U. St. Thomas L.J. 5 (2011). This Article is brought to you for free and open access by UST Research Online and the University of St. Thomas Law Journal. For more information, please contact [email protected]. \\jciprod01\productn\U\UST\9-1\UST102.txt unknown Seq: 1 1-OCT-12 14:33 ARTICLE POVERTY, ISLAMIST EXTREMISM, AND THE DEBACLE OF DOHA ROUND COUNTER- TERRORISM: PART ONE OF A TRILOGY—AGRICULTURAL TARIFFS AND SUBSIDIES* RAJ BHALA† * Parts Two and Three of the Trilogy appear as follows: Raj Bhala, Poverty, Islamist Extremism, and the Debacle of Doha Round Counter-Terrorism: Part Two of a Trilogy—Non- Agricultural Market Access and Services Trade, 44 CASE W. RES. J. INT’L L. 325 (2011) (War Crimes Research Symposium on International Law in Crisis), and Raj Bhala, Poverty, Islamist Extremism, and the Debacle of Doha Round Counter-Terrorism: Part Three of a Trilogy—Trade Remedies and Facilitation, 40 DENV. J. INT’L L. & POL’Y 237 (2012) (40th Anniversary Symposium in Honor of Professor Ved Nanda). † Associate Dean for International and Comparative Law, and Rice Distinguished Profes- sor, The University of Kansas, School of Law, Green Hall, 1535 West 15th Street, Lawrence, KS 66045-7577 U.S.A. Tel. 785-864-9224. Fax. 785-864-5054. www.law.ku.edu. Foreign Legal Consultant, Heenan Blaikie, L.L.P., Canada. J.D., Harvard (1989); M.Sc., Oxford (1986); M.Sc., London School of Economics (1985); A.B., Duke (1984). Marshall Scholar (1984-86). Member, Council on Foreign Relations, Royal Society for Asian Affairs, and Fellowship of Catholic Scholars. Author of the monograph TRADE, DEVELOPMENT, AND SOCIAL JUSTICE (2003), treatise MODERN GATT LAW (2005) (second edition forthcoming), textbook INTERNATIONAL TRADE LAW: INTERDISCIPLINARY THEORY AND PRACTICE (LexisNexis, 3d ed. 2008), reference DICTIONARY OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE LAW (2008), and textbook UNDERSTANDING ISLAMIC LAW (SHARIˆ’A) (LexisNexis, 2011). I am grateful to my spring 2011 Advanced International Trade Law class for many excellent research papers, which provided many insights and sources incorporated into this article, includ- ing the papers by Hannah Sandal and Joseph R. Billings, both of the University of Kansas School of Law Class of 2011, and Sarah R. Schmidt, Class of 2013. This article assumes familiarity with my five prior publications on the Doha Round, at least with the relevant substantive concepts and events that occurred between the launch of the Round in November 2001 and negotiations as of July 2009: (1) Poverty, Islam, and Doha, 36 INT’L LAW. 159–96 (2002), which covers the launch of the Round in November 2001. (2) Chapters 3 and 4 of the International Trade Law textbook, referenced above, partic- ularly concepts and terms in the negotiations and status of those talks through the July 2007 Draft Modalities Texts issued by Ambassadors Crawford Falconer (New Zealand) and Donald Stephenson (Canada), Chairmen of the Agriculture and Non- Agricultural Market Access negotiations, respectively. (3) Doha Round Schisms: Numerous, Technical, and Deep, 6 LOY. U. CHI. INT’L L. REV. 5 (2008), which covers the Round through the July 2008 collapsed Ministerial meeting. 5 \\jciprod01\productn\U\UST\9-1\UST102.txt unknown Seq: 2 1-OCT-12 14:33 6 UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS LAW JOURNAL [Vol. 9:1 I. ARGUMENT OF THE TRILOGY: TRADE AS COUNTER- TERRORISM .............................................. 8 R II. TRADE LIBERALIZATION, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, AND ISLAMIST EXTREMISM ..................................... 13 R A. Is There Really a Link? .............................. 13 R B. Nevermind the Regressions ........................... 21 R C. Did They Know of the Link? .......................... 23 R D. The World Has Not Changed ......................... 30 R III. TEXTS AND DOCUMENTS .................................. 31 R A. The December 2008 Draft Modalities Texts ............ 31 R B. The April 2011 Documents ........................... 38 R C. Technical Details as a Foundation for Thematic Appraisal ............................................ 45 R IV. CUTTING DOMESTIC FARM SUBSIDIES ...................... 45 R A. Overview ............................................ 45 R B. OTDS ............................................... 49 R Table I: Reduction Commitments on OTDS in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text . 52 R C. AMS (Amber Box) .................................... 57 R Table II: Reduction Commitments on Total AMS (the Amber Box) in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text .................................... 58 R D. De Minimis Subsidies ................................ 63 R Table III: Limitations on De Minimis Subsidies in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text . 64 R E. Cutting Blue Box Subsidies but Expanding the Blue Box ................................................. 66 R Table IV: Expanded Definition of, and Limitations on, Blue Box Subsidies in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text ........................ 67 R F. Green Box ........................................... 71 R G. Cotton Subsidies ..................................... 72 R V. ENHANCING AGRICULTURAL MARKET ACCESS THROUGH TARIFF CUTS ............................................. 79 R A. Tiered Tariff Reductions .............................. 79 R (4) Resurrecting the Doha Round: Devilish Details, Grand Themes, and China Too, 45 TEX. INT’L L.J. 1 (2009), which analyzes the Round from the July 2008 collapse through July 2009. (5) Doha Round Betrayals, 24 EMORY INT’L L. REV. 147 (2010), which considers the Round from July 2009 through December 2009. Portions of this article are drawn from the Texas piece. All errors are the responsi- bility of the author. For a stimulating account of the Round set in a wide context of political economy, see William A. Lovett, Beyond Doha: Multipolar Challenges for a Globalized World, 17 TUL. J. INT’L & COMP. L. 3 (2008). \\jciprod01\productn\U\UST\9-1\UST102.txt unknown Seq: 3 1-OCT-12 14:33 2011] POVERTY, ISLAMIST EXTREMISM . 7 Table V: Tiered Reductions to Agricultural Tariffs in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text . 81 R B. Sensitive Products Designations ....................... 85 R Table VI: Treatment of Sensitive Products in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text ............. 86 R C. Sensitive Products and Access Opportunities Through TRQ Expansion ...................................... 90 R D. Disaggregation of Sensitive Products and Data to Measure TRQ Expansion ............................. 94 R E. Maximum Tariff Levels (Caps) ........................ 97 R F. Tariff Escalation ..................................... 99 R G. Tariff Simplification .................................. 100 R H. Tariff Quotas ........................................ 101 R I. SSGs ................................................ 103 R VI. RESTRICTING AGRICULTURAL MARKET ACCESS THROUGH S & D TREATMENT ....................................... 105 R A. Special Products ..................................... 105 R B. SSMs ................................................ 107 R Table VII: Volume-Based Trigger for SSM Remedy in December 2008 Draft Agriculture Modalities Text . 110 R C. Tropical Products and Preference Erosion............. 116 R D. Settlement of the Bananas War: The General Agreement on Trade in Bananas (GATB) ......................... 122 R E. Least Developed Countries ........................... 127 R VII. FARM EXPORTS ........................................... 134 R A. Export Competition................................... 134 R B. Export Restrictions ................................... 139 R VIII. LOSING THE PLOT ........................................ 141 R A. The Doha Round as a Stimulus Package .............. 141 R B. Five Rebuttals ....................................... 143 R C. The Challenge of Resurrection ........................ 158 R \\jciprod01\productn\U\UST\9-1\UST102.txt unknown Seq: 4 1-OCT-12 14:33 8 UNIVERSITY OF ST. THOMAS LAW JOURNAL [Vol. 9:1 I. ARGUMENT OF THE TRILOGY: TRADE AS COUNTER-TERRORISM International trade law always has been about economic development. International trade law always has been about national security. And, since the advent of Islam in 610 AD with the first revelation from Allˆah through the Archangel Gabriel (in Arabic, Jibreel) to the Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him (PBUH)), Muslims have been engaged, in one way or another, in international trade law. Thus, it is a fallacy to think that poor or Muslim countries are new- comers to the modern world trading system. The first two paragraphs of the Preamble to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) state: The Governments of the Commonwealth of Australia, the Kingdom of Belgium, the United States of Brazil, Burma, Ca- nada, Ceylon, the Republic of Chile, the Republic of China, the Republic of Cuba, the Czechoslovak Republic, the French Repub- lic, India, Lebanon, the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, the King- dom of the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Kingdom of Norway, Pakistan, Southern Rhodesia, Syria, the Union of South Africa, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America: Recognizing