Manhattan Commission Company -13 Grass & Grain, August 11, 2020 Page 13 the declining dollar. The this time of year, make me trading decisions, and agree September Dollar Index nervous. Chances are high that you are not, and will fell to a new contract low, that we will see a sizeable not, rely solely on this com- which was also a new two- correction in the short munication in making trad- Schwieterman year low, last Thursday. run. Hedging at these lev- ing decisions. The falling dollar will els is wise and a move The risk of loss in trad- help to keep us competi- below the 50-day moving ing futures and/or options Market Outlook tive on the world market, average would be an indi- is substantial and each in- which is exactly what we cation that it is time to add vestor and/or trader must A marketing commentary by Bret Crotts need. The falling dollar to short positions. consider whether this is a is also helping the gold Schwieterman, Inc. is a suitable investment. Past The grain markets had that the stocks-to-use ratio port estimate and cut end- reach new all-time highs full service commodity bro- performance, whether actu- a rough week. The corn will not be the worst since ing stocks. We just haven’t and attracting foreign in- kerage firm. If you would al or indicated by simulated and Kansas City wheat the late 1980s. New crop quite seen good exports vestors to our stock and like more information on historical tests of strategies, fell to new contract soybean ending stocks for long enough for USDA bond markets. We need commodity markets or our is not indicative of future lows, while the soybeans are expected to be back to make a move. some of that money flow to brokerage services, contact results. Trading advice is dropped to the lowest over 500 million bushels, The Chinese have been head into agriculture, but Bret Crotts at 800-272-9131, based on information taken level since June 30th. De- which is still under the active buyers of many of we don’t have a bullish www.upthelimit.com or from trades and statistical mand has been very good old crop, but just a short our ag products, and al- story for investors to grab [email protected] services and other sources for the corn, wheat, and time ago it looked like we though they are nowhere ahold of. This material has been that Schwieterman, Inc. be- soybeans, but traders are had the possibility of mov- near the “Phase 1” com- The cattle market is a prepared by a sales or trad- lieves are reliable. We do much more concerned ing under 300 million. mitment, they are at least little bit bullish, and the ing employee or agent of not guarantee that such with the threat of higher The wheat numbers are having a positive impact market has been trending Schwieterman, Inc. and is, information is accurate corn and soybean produc- probably not going to move on the market. Without higher for a few months. or is in the nature of, a or complete and it should tion in the August supply the markets much. Ending their business, the export All the cattle contracts solicitation. This materi- not be relied upon as such. and demand report. Ex- stock will most likely be estimates, and prices, either made new multi- al is not a research report Trading advice reflects our pectations are for higher unchanged, which at least would be lower than they month or new contract prepared by Schwieterman, good faith judgment at a old crop and new crop isn’t more bearish. It also, already are. highs. Unfortunately there Inc. Research Department. specific time and is subject corn ending stocks and of course, is bullish, but We don’t have much were also a lot of reversals By accepting this commu- to change without notice. the possibility of new crop at some point the good de- bullish news to discuss, lower from those highs on nication, you agree that you There is no guarantee that ending stocks moving back mand numbers we have and besides the exports Thursday. The chart for- are an experienced user of the advice we give will re- over 3 billion bushels. been seeing will get the to China, the main bull- mation, along with the the futures markets, capa- sult in profitable trades. There is almost no chance USDA to increase the ex- ish force in the market is tendency to decline at ble of making independent Beef demand and macroeconomics examined By Derrell Peel - ond quarter of 2020. This beef demand and supply prices and, subsequently, other proteins such as Unemployment peaked Oklahoma State University follows a five percent first dynamics, complicated cattle prices going for- pork and poultry, as well as at 14.7 percent in April The U.S. economy was quarter decrease com- by dramatic disruption of ward. Beef demand, as for the multitude of other beef before declining to 11.1 wracked like never be- pared to last year. This beef supply chains. Over- any product, is generally products that may be cho- percent in June. Unem- fore in the first half of highlights questions about all beef demand was diffi- a function of consumers’ sen by consumers. In pe- ployment is expected to the year. The Bureau of the impact of the pandem- cult to judge accurately as willingness and ability to riods of low income, beef decline but will remain el- Economic Analysis (BEA) ic on beef demand in the surging retail grocery de- purchase specific quanti- consumers may “trade evated in the second half released preliminary es- first half of the year and, mand was offset by sharp- ties of the product at var- down” from high cost beef of the year. GDP is pro- timates showing that U.S. more importantly, beef de- ly diminished food service ious prices of the product. products to lower valued jected to be lower for the Gross Domestic Product mand for the remainder of demand and all obscured Willingness to purchase products. Food service de- remainder of the year with (GDP) declined by an un- the year. by temporary supply short- beef consists of a couple mand, which remains di- annual estimates down in precedented 32.9 percent The first half of 2020 ages that reduced overall of components. Underly- minished, will emphasize a range of 6.5 to 8.0 percent year-over-year in the sec- was a confusing mix of beef availability. ing consumer preferenc- this impact going forward. year over year. Record overall whole- es determine overall de- Ability to purchase a In the first half of the sale and retail beef pric- mand for beef. Tastes and product is related to the year, the dramatic drop in es masked a variety of preferences tend to be level of consumers’ dis- GDP and increase in un- impacts in various beef relatively stable, evolving cretionary income. Con- employment did not cor- product markets related over longer periods and sumers must have income respond directly to simi- to the type of demand for generally appear strong, to purchase a product lar beef demand impacts the product and the ability i.e. beef is popular. In the regardless of how much because federal stimulus to shift product from food short run, willingness to they desire the product. and unemployment bene- service to retail grocery purchase beef will depend Generally, macroeconomic fits partially offset direct supply chains. on the relative prices of conditions including over- negative economic im- Beef supply conditions other products, particular- all GDP levels along with pacts on consumers. Mac- have stabilized, albeit at ly substitute products that unemployment are indica- roeconomic conditions as higher levels of produc- may be consumed in place tive of income levels. well as the status of eco- tion year over year in the of a particular product. The U.S. economy is in nomic support will play a second half of 2020. Beef For specific beef prod- recession and will be for key role in overall beef demand will be critical in ucts, this is a complicated the balance of the year demand going forward. determining overall beef consideration, including and likely into next year. COMM. CATTLE AUCTION MANHATTAN CO. INC. EVERY FRIDAY 1-800-834-1029 STARTING 10:00 A.M. ON WEIGH COWS Toll-Free FOLLOWED BY STOCKER FEEDERS — 11:00 A.M. OFFICE PHONE 785-776-4815 • OWNERS MERVIN SEXTON & JOHN CLINE Our CONSIGNMENTS can now be viewed after 12 Noon on Mondays by going to www.grassandgrain.com & logging onto the online subscription A mostly steady to strong market on all Alta Vista 9 blk [email protected] Alma 1 blk [email protected] BRED COWS classes of steers & heifers offered for our Blaine 8 bwf [email protected] Soldier 1 blk [email protected] AGE BRED sale Friday, Aug. 7. Quality and condition St. George 6 xbred [email protected] Palmer 1 blk [email protected] Overbrook 1 blk 3 8 @2850.00 was a price deciding factor. Cull cows & HEIFERS — 550-925 LBS. McLouth 1 blk [email protected] Overbrook 2 blk 3 8 @2600.00 bulls were selling steady. Some high-qual- Manhattan 11 Red Angus [email protected] Overbrook 3 blk 2-3-4 7-8 @2500.00 ity fall calving cows were offered and were Council Grove 6 mix [email protected] Overbrook 1 blk 2 8 @2350.00 finding a very good demand. Alta Vista 20 blk [email protected] BULLS — 1,525-2,275 LBS.