december 2015 ISSUE no. 5 Valdis Dombrovskis Ukraine – defending our values Alexander Rumyantsev Russo-Finnish relations about to turn 95 Henrik Lax The Åland regime after Crimea To receive a free copy, register at www.utu.fi/pei The Pan-European Institute publishes the Baltic Rim Economies (BRE) review which deals with the development of the Baltic Sea region. In the BRE review, public and corporate decision makers, representatives of Academia, as well as several other experts contribute to the discussion. Pan-European Institute ISSN 1459-9759 Editor-in-Chief | Kari Liuhto (responsible for writer invitations) Technical Editor | Elisa Aro University of Turku Turku School of Economics Pan-European Institute Rehtorinpellonkatu 3 FI-20500 TURKU, Finland Tel. +358 2 333 9567 www.utu.fi/pei 17.12.2015 Baltic Rim Economies ISSUE # 5 expert articles Valdis Dombrovskis 4 Anu Fredrikson 17 Soile Tirri 31 Ukraine – defending our values The Arctic – a possibility for future The future of Finnish-Russian sustainable growth cooperation – to be or not to be? Marju Lauristin 6 Reforms in Ukraine pave the road Hans Jørgen Koch 18 Alexey Golubev 32 to Europe Bridging the Baltic with electricity Republic of Karelia – an after-life of socialist nation-building Jens Nilsson 7 Tapio Pekkola 19 Social economy – a key role in Nord Stream 2 – building upon Yuliya Zabyelina 33 renewing the Nordic welfare model experience and securing Europe’s Drug trafficking trends in the Baltic energy supplies Sea Region Alexander Rumyantsev 8 Russo-Finnish relations about to Nataliya S. Karpova 20 Mikhail Durkin 34 turn 95 International gas projects of Russia Battle of the Baltic1 – deeds that in the context of changing economic count Hanna Westerén 9 paradigm The opportunity of a lifetime for Sari Oksanen, Mervi Kunnasranta & coastal and island communities to Nurşin Ateşoğlu GÜNEY 22 Markus Ahola 35 make a difference The future of EU’s energy supply Seals without borders – Baltic Rim security? countries share the same seals Henrik Lax 10 The Åland regime after Crimea András Rácz 23 Gregory Kantorovich & Belarus – sovereignty decreasing? Anatoliy Tsirkunov 36 Elisabeth Nauclér 11 Total negative effect on environment Roger Roffey 24 The neutralization of the Åland and economic growth Islands Russian policies not adapted to the effects of climate changes in northern Wiktor Patena 37 Lars Strannegård 12 Russia Privatization in Poland – phasing The power of education out or reversal? Matthew Kott 25 Laila Kildesgaard 13 Becoming more “European” – in the Piotr Mielus & Tomasz Mironczuk 38 Bright Green Island – from vision to wrong way Benchmarks reform – time for realisation in 10 years change A vision for Bornholm, the Danish Mikhail Denisenko 26 Baltic Sea island of around 40 000 Recent development in emigration Katarzyna Byrka-Kita 40 inhabitants from Russia The Warsaw Stock Exchange at a crossroads Anastasiya Kuznetsova 14 Sergey N. Lavrov & Nina V. Ershova 27 Economic development of the Japanese investment in Russia Barbara Czerniachowicz 41 Kaliningrad region Polish regional approach to Ruslan Shafiev 28 innovation system Tarja Nuotio 15 Integration processes in the former Southwest Finland – at the heart of Soviet Union Dominika V. Polanska 42 the Baltic Sea? Polish civil society in bloom Maria Kazakova 29 Adolf Wysocki 16 Resource curse and Russian economy Liisi Esse 43 ”All change, please?” – the need for – current situation and challenges for The Baltic Studies Program of innovation and a new perspective the future Stanford University Libraries 3 www.utu.fi/pei 17.12.2015 Baltic Rim Economies ISSUE # 5 Valdis Dombrovskis Ukraine – defending our values Expert article • 1868 s recent events show, instability in our neighbourhood already bearing fruit, allowing Ukraine to weather one of the worst can quickly and dramatically affect our daily lives. I am recessions it has ever experienced. After recording more than a 17% of course referring to the situation in the Middle East and decline in GDP at the beginning of this year, Ukraine is expected to North Africa but, equally importantly, the situation in our return to growth already towards the end of the year - for the first time closest neighbourhood - Ukraine. It is imperative that we since 2013. At the same time, it was possible to broadly stabilise the doA not divert our attention from ongoing events in Ukraine. local currency – hryvnia – following the turmoil earlier this year. Sta- The EU economy has only recently returned to growth, overcom- bility of the currency also enabled moderate inflation in the country. ing what was one of the most severe financial crises in its history. In a nutshell, what we are now witnessing is the turning point for the After an immense effort to stabilise the financial sector, consolidate Ukrainian economy. The country is gradually, but steadily, setting off public finances and introduce structural reforms, the Union is now on a recovery path. It is therefore essential to continue the reform focussed on unlocking investment, increasing productivity and accel- course to make this recovery more sustainable. erating the process of convergence to ensure that today’s growth is A lot has already been achieved. In the area of public finance not only maintained, but indeed strengthened, in the future. management, for example, external audit and transparency of pub- However, even when all the right conditions are in place within lic procurement have been strengthened, and progress has been the EU, external risks will remain made in reforming the financial and this may endanger future eco- The country is gradually, sector. More, however, still needs nomic prosperity. In all fairness, we to be done, particularly to fight cor- do not live in either a political or eco- but steadily, setting off on a ruption, reform the Ukrainian civil nomic vacuum. Developments in service and complete energy sector our neighbourhood could potentially recovery path. It is therefore reforms. be the source of serious external The agreement that Ukraine shocks. Almost five years of the civil essential to continue the successfully negotiated with its pri- war in Syria and long-standing politi- vate creditors will give the neces- cal instabilities in Africa have led to reform course to make this sary breathing space for the country hundreds of thousands of refugees to introduce the remaining reforms, crossing EU borders in search of in- recovery more sustainable. without pressure from its creditors. ternational protection and hope for a In parallel, the international financial safer life. This means that close engagement with all key EU neigh- support programme, to which the EU contributed an unprecedented bourhood partners is vital to ensure that they are both economically level, alongside the International Monetary Fund, should address the and politically stable. Ensuring economic and political stability would immediate financing needs of Ukraine. allow a country to withstand aggression, be it military aggression or By successfully completing reforms and combatting deep-rooted targeted propaganda or cyber-attacks, which are becoming increas- corruption, the Ukrainian Government can live up to the expectations ingly prominent. of those calling for a reformed Ukraine at Maidan in February 2014. Ukraine is undoubtedly one of the EU’s closest partners. Today, With our support, and that of our partners, Ukraine should transform Ukraine is copying with significant negative economic and social con- into a reformed, democratic and growing economy. sequences of political actions of the past. Since almost two years, the With signs of economic stabilisation appearing in Ukraine, we can EU has been actively supporting Ukraine’s reforms process, including also start thinking about the future strategy for rebuilding Ukraine after with extensive macro-financial assistance, grants, EIB loans, subsidy the conflict, putting in place the necessary infrastructure and returning re-investment programmes, and humanitarian assistance. With a total Ukraine to a sustainable growth path. Only a strong and prosperous of the €7 billion that has already been mobilised for Ukraine - out of a Ukraine can engage with its neighbours on an equal footing, effec- total €11 billion support package - this is the largest EU financial as- tively fighting aggression. sistance ever granted to a non-EU country in such a short time. Even more urgently, Ukraine must become a safe country once EU support, however, does not amount to the financial assistance again. The conflict in the East makes the recovery extremely difficult, alone. As of 23 April 2014, the EU unilaterally removed customs du- as the insecurity is taking a toll on its budget and, more importantly, its ties on Ukrainian exports to the EU, granting it preferential access. people. Ukraine needs a return to peace urgently and the only way to The annual value of this support measure was nearly €500 million in restore peace is through full implementation of the Minsk Agreements. tariff reductions. As a result, this has gradually started re-orientating The burden to comply lies on both sides. We expect full involvement Ukrainian exports towards the EU. In 2016, the Deep Cooperation and commitment of Russia to a swift and successful resolution of the Free Trade Agreement between the EU and Ukraine will finally be conflict in the East of Ukraine. It is not time for political arbitrage when in provisional application, bringing Ukraine and the EU even closer it comes to the fate of a country