Middlesex University Research Repository An open access repository of Middlesex University research http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk Tsolakidis, Stefanos K. (2006) Foresight of aerospace and defence technologies in Greece up to 2020. DProf thesis, University of Middlesex. [Thesis] Final accepted version (with author’s formatting) This version is available at: https://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/13552/ Copyright: Middlesex University Research Repository makes the University’s research available electronically. Copyright and moral rights to this work are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners unless otherwise stated. The work is supplied on the understanding that any use for commercial gain is strictly forbidden. A copy may be downloaded for personal, non-commercial, research or study without prior permission and without charge. 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See also repository copyright: re-use policy: http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/policies.html#copy Middlesex University Research Repository: an open access repository of Middlesex University research http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk Tsolakidis, Stefanos K, 2006. Foresight of aerospace and defence technologies in Greece up to 2020. Available from Middlesex University’s Research Repository. Copyright: Middlesex University Research Repository makes the University’s research available electronically. Copyright and moral rights to this thesis/research project are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners. The work is supplied on the understanding that any use for commercial gain is strictly forbidden. A copy may be downloaded for personal, non-commercial, research or study without prior permission and without charge. Any use of the thesis/research project for private study or research must be properly acknowledged with reference to the work’s full bibliographic details. This thesis/research project may not be reproduced in any format or medium, or extensive quotations taken from it, or its content changed in any way, without first obtaining permission in writing from the copyright holder(s). If you believe that any material held in the repository infringes copyright law, please contact the Repository Team at Middlesex University via the following email address: [email protected] The item will be removed from the repository while any claim is being investigated. FORESIGHT OF AEROSPACE AND DEFENCE TECHNOLOGIES IN GREECE UP TO 2020 A project submitted to Middlesex University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Professional Studies STEFANOS K. TSOLAKIDIS NATIONAL CENTRE FOR WORK BASED LEARNING PARTNERSHIPS MIDDLESEX UNIVERSITY JUNE 2006 THESIS CONTAINS CD/DVD ~()/~ wid~~ oM~~ ~tk~25~ of 0tI/P COHYJU}fl/ ~ ~ ~ .. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS My first words of acknowledgement go to Dr S.Drossos, who encouraged me to proceed with this subject. Then I would like to thank my supervisor Dr. Argyris Panaras for his guidance and remarks during the research and writing of this thesis. Many thanks belong to Mr. Nick Karabekios for his friendly attitude and availability to locate sources related to the various aspects of the research. The intervention of Mrs Sue Garnett was also very significant and I am grateful to her. Last but not least I express my gratitude to Mrs. Anna Dydyk for patience and professional response towards the whole preparation of this work. CONTENTS Page Acknowledgements ........................ , .......... " ....... " . .. ") Abstract. .... ..... .......... ... ........ ................ .................. ... 7 Chapter 1: Introduction............ .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... 8 Chapter 2: The Greek Technology Foresight................. 12 2.1 Targets.......................................................... 12 2.2 Characteristics................................................. 13 2.3 Methods .... .......... ....................................... .... 14 2.3.1 Working Groups and Horizontal Actions....... 14 2.3.2 Scenarios Development.. .. .... ...... .. .. .. ....... 16 2.4 Initial Plans Amendment.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ... 18 2.5 Technology Foresight Implementation..................... 20 Chapter 3: Literature Review.. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... 22 3.1 Introduction .................................................. 22 3.2 Evolution of the international economy and Foresight.. 24 3.3 Foresight Diffusion ......................................... 26 3.3.1 Regional Foresight ................................ 26 3.3.2 Organizational Foresight ......................... 27 3.3.3 National Foresight ................................ 29 Chapter 4: Aerospace and Defence Industry .. ................... .. 32 4.1 Globalization of Economy ................................ 32 4.2 European Defence ......................................... 33 4.3 Hellenic Aerospace and Defence Industry .............. 36 41 4.4 European Defence Industry ............................... 42 4.5 Offset Benefits .............................................. 4.5.1 MoD Guidelines ................................... 44 4.5.2 Prioritization of Technologies with wide Applications ......................................... 48 ..., J Chapter 5: Scenario Plannin2 ................................ .... 50 5.1 Theoretical Background .................................... 50 5.2 The "ELYSIAN FIELDS" Scenario...................... 54 5.3 The "JANUS" Scenario.................................... 55 5.4 The "ARMAGEDON" Scenario....................... ... 57 Chapter 6: Research Process and Methodology........... ... 60 6.1 General Approach. ... 60 6.2 The Delphi Method ........... " .. ..... .. 61 6.2.1 Evolution of Delphi. .. .. .. ... .. ... 61 6.2.2 Delphi features. ..... .... ... .. .. .. .. 62 6.2.3 Delphi and Foresight.............................. 65 6.2.4 Delphi as an overarching approach. .. .... .. .. 65 6.3 The Other Methods .......................................... 67 6.3.1 Documents...... ......................... ........... 67 6.3.2 Questionnaires.... .. .. .. ... 67 6.3.3 Interviews........................................... 69 6.3.4 Process and Implementation...................... 70 6.3.5 The dual role of the worker researcher.......... 71 6.4 The Greek Case ............................................. 73 6.5 Findings of Delphi ........................................... 74 6.6 Some Conclusions and Suggestions....................... 76 Chapter 7: Future Technologies................................. 78 7.1 Weapons, Ammunition, Explosives ........................ 79 7.2 Information Systems .................................... " ... 80 7.3 Energy Production and Storage ............................ 82 7.4 CommunIcatIons. 83 7.5 Sensors ............................ , . .. ..... .. .... 85 7.6 Unmanned Vehicles.......................................... 88 7.7 Maintenance Technologies.................................. 89 7.8 New materials................................................ 92 7.8.1 Basic Materials. .. .. .. 92 7.8.2 Manufacturing. .. .. ... 94 Chapter 8: Dual Technologies... ... ...... ... ......... ...... .. .... 95 8.1 Introduction ................................................... 95 8.2 Dual-use technology management ...................... '" 97 8.3 Technology transfer ........................ " . .. .. 99 8.4 Proposal of Studies.. .. .. ......... ... .. 101 a. Classification. ... 101 b. Markets................................................... 101 c. Structural Analysis of Systems ........................ 102 d. Generic Technologies.................................. 102 e. Common Languages .................................... 102 8.5 Cost Consideration .......................................... 102 8.6 Integration Benefits ....................................... ... 103 8.7 Implementation ............................................ '" 104 8.8 Conclusions. .. ... .... .. .. .. .... 105 Chapter 9: Human Factors in Aerospace and Defence. ... 107 9.1 Introduction. 107 9.2 Findings of the Survey....................................... 109 9.3 Conclusions and Recommendations ........................ 110 1. The Design Process ..................................... 110 2. Interface Technologies ................................. 111 3. Automation .............................................. 111 4. Human Error. .. II'- 5. Life Cycle Consideration .............................. 113 Chapter 10: Comparison with other Technology Foresight Programmes ........................................... 114 10.1 Scope .......................................................... 114 10.2 MotIvatIon ..................................