Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Doctoral Dissertations Graduate School 2009 Inside the red box: North Korea's post-totalitarian politcs Patrick McEachern Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation McEachern, Patrick, "Inside the red box: North Korea's post-totalitarian politcs" (2009). LSU Doctoral Dissertations. 1063. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_dissertations/1063 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Doctoral Dissertations by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please [email protected]. INSIDE THE RED BOX: NORTH KOREA’S POST-TOTALITARIAN POLITICS A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Political Science by Patrick McEachern B.A., The Catholic University of America, 2002 M.A., The Catholic University of America, 2002 May 2009 Acknowledgements This dissertation simply would not have been possible without the hard work of many people. First and foremost, I must thank my major professor, Mark Gasiorowski, whose thoughtful critique, clear direction, and warm encouragement shepherded this whole document – from my first notions to a finalized dissertation to hopefully a pending book manuscript. Dr. Gasiorowski consistently challenged me to think deeper, consider another angle, and provided clear and incredibly timely advice on issues large and small. I also owe a debt of gratitude to my committee – Bill Clark, Wonik Kim, David Sobek, and Charles Royster – not only for helpful comments on the proposal and defense but helping lay the foundations for this project. Dr. Clark first exposed me to regime types and encouraged my interest in concepts like totalitarianism, Dr. Kim always provided valuable insights into the state/society relations perspective as well as helped me explore East Asia history, Dr. Sobek helped me place this project in wider perspective for the discipline, and Dr. Royster reminded me to maintain relevance for a wider audience still. I would also like to take the opportunity to thank a number of my colleagues at the State Department at elsewhere in the U.S. government, think tanks, and other academic institutions. Brian Kux, Allison Hooker, John Merrill, the rest of INR’s Team Korea, my many colleagues on the Korea desk, and those who preferred to not be named have taught and continue to teach me a great deal about North Korea and other topics. And though I must note that t he views expressed here are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the U.S. Department of State or the U.S. Government, I have appreciated the opportunity to discuss and debate many issues with my colleagues. I am constantly amazed at the generosity of others willing to read part of all of a manuscript like this one. I benefited from productive exchanges with Andrew Scobell, Steven Kim, Stephan Haggard, Jim Hoare, Susan Pares, Bruce Cumings, Kirk Larsen, Alexandre Mansourov, Johannes Gerschewski, Alexandre Vorontsov, Piao Jianyi, X iangrong Dong, and many others who I am inevitably leaving off this list. One should not assume, of course, that these helpful discussants agreed with my argument, making me all the more grateful they were willing to engage on this topic. I also owe a special thank you to Tara Montelaro whose help with all things administrative and beyond from my graduate school application to submitting this dissertation has been absolutely superb; Tara consistently goes above and beyond and conducts herself with such grace, good humor, and incredible effectiveness and efficiency that she is truly exemplary. Last but certainly not least, I must single out my loving wife, Jaclyn, for all of her support though this long process. Living with me is a much more daunting task than even writing a dissertation, and she does it with such grace and good humor. She put up with my moods and demands for rather obsessive prolonged focus that of course only seems unreasonable in retrospect. I certainly could not have completed this without her love, affection, and constant support, so it is only fitting that I dedicate this dissertation to her. ii Table of Contents Acknowledgements……………………………………………..………………….. ii List of Tables………………………………………………………………………..vi List of Figures……………………………………………………………………….vii Abstract…………………………………………………………………………….. viii Chapter 1: Introduction……………………………………………..……………… 1 Views of the Regime……………………………………………..………… 3 Diverse Institutional Views…………………………………………………4 Towards a New Model……………………………………………..………. 7 The Stakes……………………………………………..…………………… 10 Road Map……………………………………………..……………………. 11 Chapter 2: Post-totalitarian Institutionalism……………………………………….. 13 Existing Models of North Korean Politics…………………………………. 13 The Emergence of Post-totalitarian Institutionalism………………………. 23 Post-totalitarian Institutionalism…………………………………………… 28 Research Design…………………………………………………………….32 Chapter 3: Historical Context……………………………………………..………...40 Introduction……………………………………………..…………………. 40 Foundations of the Founding………………………………………………. 40 Kim Il Sung and Totalitarianism, 1956 – 1990……………………………..44 The Transition Period, 1991 – 1998……………………………………….. 53 Post-totalitarian Institutionalism, 1998 – Present………………………….. 60 Conclusion……………………………………………..……………………66 Chapter 4: North Korea’s Political Institutions……………………………………. 68 Introduction……………………………………………..…………………. 68 The Korean Workers Party………………………………………………… 68 The Korean Peoples Army……………………………………………..…... 71 The Cabinet……………………………………………..………………….. 73 The Security Apparatus……………………………………………..………76 Supreme People’s Assembly………………………………………………..80 Sub-national Governments and the Judiciary…………………….…………81 Conclusion……………………………………………..……………………82 Chapter 5: Institutional Jostling for Agenda Control, 1998 – 2001………………... 83 Introduction…………………………………………..…………………….. 83 Taepo Dong-1 Launch…………………………………………..…………. 85 The Kumchang-ri Suspected Nuclear Facility……………………………... 87 iii OPlan 5027…………………………………………..…………………….. 93 The Second Chollima March………………………………………………. 96 Uncoordinated Institutions…………………………………………..…….. 103 Missile Negotiations and the Inter-Korean Summit……………………….. 107 Conclusion.…………………………………………..…………………...... 113 Chapter 6: Segmenting Policy and Issue Linkages, 2001-2006…………………… 115 Introduction…………………………………………..…………………….. 115 Towards Economic Reforms………………………………………………..116 Issue Linkages: Inter-Korean and U.S. Policy………………………………119 Pyongyang Reacts to New U.S. Policy……………………………………...122 Regime Change Short List Concern Closes Ranks………………………… 125 Linking and Delinking Issue Areas…………………………………………127 End of the Agreed Framework and the Second Nuclear Crisis………….….131 Inter-Korean Relations: A Separate Track?....................................................140 Nuclear Declarations…………………………………………..…………… 145 Diplomatic Impasse; Mutual Pressure……………………………………... 147 “The Atmosphere Has Improved” – For a Day……………………………. 149 LWR Demands and Banco Delta Asia……………………………………... 150 Cross-border Cooperation: The Only Game in Town………………………151 Bureaucratic Cracks on “Sanctions” and Missile Tests……………………. 153 Hitting Rock Bottom: The Nuclear Test…………………………………….155 Conclusion.………………………………………………………………….157 Chapter 7: Policy Reversals, 2006-2008…………………………………………… 160 Introduction………………………………………………………………… 160 Return to Six Party Talks……………………………………………………160 Cabinet Economic Reformer Replaced…with Economic Reformer………..163 Chris Hill in Pyongyang…………………………………………..……….. 164 Presidential Turnover in South Korea………………………………………165 Refocusing on the United States…………………………………………… 170 Continuity Amid Change: The North Korean Economy……………………175 Conclusion…………………………………………..……………………... 177 Chapter 8: Conclusion…………………………………………..…………………..179 North Korea’s Post-totalitarian Institutionalism…………………………… 179 An Evolved Polity…………………………………………..……………… 180 Decision-making…………………………………………..………………...181 Importance of the Internal Mechanism……………………………………...187 North Korea, Comparative Politics, and Downstream Consequences……... 191 North Korea’s Future………………………………………………………. 192 iv References…………………………………………………………………………..196 Vita…………………………………………..……………………………………... 202 v List of Tables Table 4.1: North Korea’s Foreign Ministers…………………………………………..75 Table 8.1: Decision-making Outcomes, 1998-2009…………………………………..182 vi List of Figures Figure 2.1: Policy Issues in NYJE (1995 - 2007)………………………………….. 34 Figure 3.1: Macro-Political Organization under Kim Il Sung……………………... 50 Figure 4.1: Security Apparatus under Kim Jong Il………………………………… 79 Figure 8.1: Institutional Lead by Issue Area, 1998-2009………………………….. 185 Figure 8.2: Institutional Lead on Economic Policy, 1998-2009…………………… 185 Figure 8.3: Institutional Lead on Inter-Korean Policy, 1998-2009………………... 186 Figure 8.4: Institutional Lead on U.S. Policy, 1998-2009…………………………. 187 vii Abstract This dissertation proposes a radically new understanding of North Korean politics under Kim Jong Il and carefully tests this theoretical proposition. Current models describe North Korea as some form of a highly centralized state: totalitarian, personalistic, or corporatist. By contrast, I argue that these monolithic ideal