Catching the Big Wave: Public Opinion Polls and Bandwagons in US and Canadian Elections Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Delton T. Daigle, M.A. Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2010 Dissertation Committee: Professor Herbert Weisberg, Advisor Professor Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier Professor Paul Allen Beck Professor Randall B. Ripley i Copyright by Delton T. Daigle 2010 i Abstract For as long as public opinions have generally thought to be known there have been claims made that knowledge of where people stand can impact both the attitudes and behaviors of others. Previous research has had mixed results in identifying and measuring the effects of ―bandwagons‖. This research uses better data and derives tests from contemporary theories of public opinion to show that not only do bandwagons definitively exist, but also that they exist most often among the groups of people we would expect to be influenced by ambient information: those adequately prepared to receive a message but not so sophisticated as to not be influenced by it. This research examines and finds bandwagon effects in four elections total in two different countries (Canada in 2004 and 2006 and the United States in 2000 and 2004) and as such, contributes to the larger scientific endeavor of generalization through comparison. ii Dedication For my patient and loving wife Carolina iii Acknowledgements It only seems natural to begin acknowledgements with recognizing my advisor Herb Weisberg and my committee Jan Box-Steffensmeier, Randall Ripley and Paul Beck, whose patience with how long it took me to defend this project cannot be appreciated more. Herb was particularly valuable to this effort as his ability to motivate seemed to offer the appropriate mix of carrots and sticks. At the time I may have preferred more of the former and less of the latter, but in retrospect the balance seemed about right and I may actually have preferred more sticks. Professor Ripley was also particularly helpful in this enterprise, not only because of his continued support, but as the best sounding board for discussions of Canadian politics both relevant to this research and as my ―Canadian politics as great theater‖ compatriot. My journey to get to this point began many years ago as a maladjusted orphaned teen that was put in the awkward position of having to finish high school at a community college because it fit my work schedule better. While there I had the privilege to be a student of first Lori Williams and later Keith Brownsey both of whom inspired me to pursue increasingly more and more political science course content (particularly political philosophy – sorry Lori, I have strayed), and ultimately recommend that I transfer to a degree granting university. At Brock University I was introduced to the scientific method and what had been a great interest truly became a passion under the sage guidance of Terry Carroll. Thanks again Prof. Carroll. iv After graduating from Brock I worked for a few years in the private sector, but the desire to continue studying politics drew me back. Upon my return to academia I was guided by one of the sharpest minds in Canadian political behavior, Dr. Elisabeth Gidengil. Prof. Gidengil was relentless in her assistance to me during my time at McGill and I am infinitely the better scholar and indebted to her for it. Professor Waller helped refine and clarify so many questions I had about American politics and provided terrific guidance in choosing an American university at which to do my PhD. Upon selecting Ohio State I could not have been paired with a better faculty advisor, so thanks again Herb, and thanks to you all. A final note of thanks goes to the four most important women in my life who have all supported me at various points along the way. My mother raised five terrific boys, who given our situation when she passed away, it still seems amazing that we all lead productive and happy lives. My aunt Judy, who after my mother died was instrumental in helping me continue the journey to adulthood (let me know when I get there, please). Judy and I had many arguments and disagreements along the way that looking back on it was most likely due to our very similar personalities. My grandmother Bea deserves my thanks for helping me keep a sense of family and keeping all of us grounded through difficult times. Finally I need to thank my wife Carolina, who like Herb is a master of carrots and sticks, but has been so supportive of this project and is instrumental in the happiness I have had since we first time we started dating. This project is for you. v Vita 1996………………………………….B.A. (Distinction) Politics Brock University, St. Catherines, Ontario 2002………………………………….M.A. Political Science McGill University, Montreal, Quebec 2005………………………………….M.A. Political Science The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 2000 – 2002………………………….Graduate Research Associate Canadian Elections Study McGill University 2001 – 2002………………………….Graduate Teaching Assistant McGill University 2003 – 2004………………………… Graduate Research Associate Center for Survey Research The Ohio State University 2004 – 2005………………………....Graduate Teaching Assistant The Ohio State University 2005 – 2006………………………….Institutional Research Analyst Grant MacEwan College 2005 – 2006………………………….Lecturer Grant MacEwan College 2005, 2006 – 2008…………….…….Graduate Teaching Associate The Ohio State University 2009 – 2010…………………………Adjunct Professor Muskingum University Fields of Study Major Field: Political Science vi Table of Contents Contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................... ii Dedication ...................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................ iv Vita ................................................................................................................................. vi List of Tables .................................................................................................................. x List of Figures .............................................................................................................. xiii Section I – Can polls drive candidate support? ................................................................... 1 Chapter 1 – Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Who cares if polls affect people? .............................................................................. 10 Chapter Outline.......................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 2 – Literature Review ...................................................................................... 18 Minimal Effects ......................................................................................................... 19 Rational Voters and Strategic Considerations ........................................................... 22 Bandwagon Effects .................................................................................................... 30 Chapter 3 – Research Design and Methodology........................................................... 35 Research Design ........................................................................................................ 35 Measuring Bandwagons ............................................................................................ 35 Modeling .................................................................................................................... 37 Examining the Impact of Polls - 2 Countries and 2 Elections ................................... 40 The LASTPOLL Variable ......................................................................................... 42 Bandwagons and Political Sophistication.................................................................. 45 Essential Modeling Controls ..................................................................................... 50 A Statement about the Expectations of this Research ............................................... 53 Chapter 3 Figures....................................................................................................... 55 Chapter 3 Tables ........................................................................................................ 57 vii Section II – The US Presidential Elections of 2000 and 2004 .......................................... 60 Chapter 4 - The 2000 Presidential Election .................................................................. 64 The Background to the 2000 Presidential Election ................................................... 64 The Polls – USA 2000 ............................................................................................... 68 Results – Favorability – USA 2000 ........................................................................... 70 Results – Vote Intention – US - 2000 ........................................................................ 74 Discussion of the 2000 US Presidential Election ...................................................... 77 US 2000 Figures .......................................................................................................