Appendix C Ridership Study Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 Table of Contents 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 2 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................... 2 1.2 Study Area Zone Geography ................................................................................... 2 2. Travel Surveys and Market Data ................................................................................ 6 2.1 Travel Survey Program ............................................................................................ 6 2.2 Highway Survey Program ...................................................................................... 10 2.3 Airport Survey Program ......................................................................................... 10 2.4 On-Board Rail Surveys .......................................................................................... 12 2.5 Multimodal Travel Market Data and Results ........................................................ 13 3. Socio-Economic Data ............................................................................................... 17 4. Multimodal Networks and Service Characteristics ................................................ 19 4.1 Highway Network and Auto Service Characteristics ........................................... 19 4.2 Rail and Air Service Characteristics...................................................................... 20 4.3 Summary of Existing Service Characteristics ...................................................... 21 5. Model Development and Application ...................................................................... 25 5.1 Mode Share Model Framework and Estimation ................................................... 25 5.2 Total Travel Demand Model .................................................................................. 31 6. Rail Alternatives and Service Characteristics ........................................................ 33 7. Ridership and Revenue Projections ........................................................................ 42 8. Appendix ................................................................................................................... 47 1 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 1. Introduction 1.1 Background This report presents the methodology of AECOM’s effort to develop/update the North Carolina Southeast Corridor model, also used by Amtrak and Virginia, to address high speed rail service and feeder line in corridors within North Carolina and Virginia. The corridors to be evaluated include: x Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR), serving Charlotte, Raleigh, Richmond, Hampton Roads (Newport News and Norfolk), Washington, New York, and other markets x Southeastern North Carolina (SENC), serving Wilmington, NC and other markets x Western North Carolina (WNC), serving Asheville and other intermediate markets x Virginia’s Piedmont Corridor, serving Charlottesville, Lynchburg, and Roanoke Below is a list of inputs required to complete the analysis: Rail schedules for the Silver Meteor/Star, Carolinian, Palmetto, and Piedmont train services as well as the Northeast Regional trains serving Virginia Rail surveys for the Silver Meteor/Star, Carolinian, Palmetto, and Piedmont trains services as well as the Northeast Regional trains serving Virginia Auto surveys for key locations in North Carolina and Virginia throughout the study area Air surveys conducted at the Charlotte and Raleigh airports addressing travel to other places within the study area Geographic zone system covering the entire study area Highway network connecting all the zones and all the rail stations in the study area Socio-economic data for the zone system Ridership information for the North Carolina and Virginia state corridor services Auto trip table Travel characteristics for auto, air and rail The report describes the study area geography; size and description of the various survey data used for the analysis; and the highway network used to compute auto travel characteristics. 1.2 Study Area Zone Geography The study area consists of the states of North Carolina, Virginia, and portions of key areas in adjacent states and within the Northeast Corridor, from Washington D.C. to Boston. A geographic-based zone system was developed for this study area based on the previous version of the zone system, and was updated to reflect specific areas of interest in the study area. This zone system defines the geographic level of detail at which the intercity travel demand forecasting process is applied. The zone system is based on county boundaries, city boundaries and 5-digit zip code boundaries. Exhibit 1.1 shows the extent of this zone system. This current study area is focused around the geographic area surrounding Southeast High Speed Rail (SEHSR), the Southeastern North Carolina (SENC) and Western North Carolina 2 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 (WNC) corridors. A more aggregate system of 20 districts is shown in Exhibits 1.2 and 1.3, consisting of a map with groups of zones and a table describing the zones included in each. Exhibit 1.1 – Travel Analysis Zones 3 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 Exhibit 1.2 – Study Area Summary Districts Boston New England-Providence New York Philadelphia Baltimore Out of Study Area Washington D.C Out of Out of Out of Study Study Area Study Area Area Out of Study Out of Area Richmond Study Charlottesville-Lynchburg Area Out of Rural VA Virginia Study Beach Area Durham-Burlington Out of Winston Raleigh Rocky Study Ashville Salem-Grensboro Mount-Goldsboro Area - Morgan Hickory Out of Rockingham Study Area Charlotte - S.Pines Wilmington-Jacksonville New Bern-Morehead Fayettville-Lumberton City 4 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 Exhibit 1.3: Study Area District Description District Description Zones Included Boston Boston Metro--Worcester, MA 1-5,7 Bridgeport--New Haven--Norwich- New England Providence, CT-RI-MA 6,8-14 New York Metro NY-NJ-PA- New York 15-31,33,35 Allentown, PA Philadelphia Metro, PA-NJ-DE-MD- Philadelphia 32,34,36-45,50 -Trenton-Ewing, NJ Baltimore Baltimore Metro, MD 61-63,65,67,76 Washington D.C Washington Metro DC-VA-MD-WV 64,66,68-84,92,95 98,102,103,106- Richmond Richmond Metro, VA 109,111,120,126,128-135,144,156- 159,175 Rural VA Rural VA-Brunswick 123,174,176,177-179 Raleigh Raleigh Metro-Henderson, NC 267-273,427,428 Charlotte Metro-Albemarle-Lincoln- 232- Charlotte Rockingham-Shelby, NC 235,245,247,250,251,254,255,335 Charlottesville- Charlottesville-Lynchburg-Danville- 86-89,96,97,110,112,117-122,180- Lynchburg Roanoke-Blacksburg, VA 183,185-188,190,191,194,195 Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport Virginia Beach 149,150,152,154,155,160-173,303 News, VA-DC Rocky Mount-Wilson-Roanoke Rocky Mount 278-282 Rapids, NC Winston Salem-Greensboro- Winston Salem- Highpoint-Thomasville-Lexington, 237-242,257-259 Greensboro NC Asheville-Hickory-Statesville-Forest Asheville-Hickory 213-223,226,234,236,244 City, NC Rockingham-S. Rockingham-Southern Pines- 252,253,256,266 Pines Sanford, NC Durham--Burlington Durham-Chapel Hill-Burlington, NC 260-265 Fayetteville- Fayetteville-Lumberton-Laingsburg- 274-277,295,296,298 Lumberton Dunn, NC New Bern-Morehead New Bern-Morehead City- 285-292,311,313 City Washington-Greenville-Kinston, NC Wilmington- Wilmington-Jacksonville- 288,291,293,294,297,299,300, Jacksonville- Goldsboro, NC 5 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 2. Travel Surveys and Market Data The analysis and prediction of future travel demand begins with a complete description of the existing travel market in geographic, trip purpose, and other key dimensions. This detailed travel market information can only be obtained through conducting travel surveys. These travel surveys also provide a means of assessing traveler responses to changes in the characteristics of future travel alternatives. The following section of the report documents the travel survey information and the assembly/analysis of the base travel market data for the Southeast. 2.1 Travel Survey Program An extensive travel survey program was conducted to support this study, consisting of: x Eight (8) Intercity Highway survey locations, seven in North Carolina (I-40/I-85/I-95) and one in Virginia (I-95) x Two Airport survey locations: Charlotte, NC and Raleigh, NC x On-Board train surveys along the six different routes serving southeast corridor Exhibit 2.1 summarizes the specific locations of the surveys by mode, including the highway surveys conducted in the states of North Carolina and Virginia. 6 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 Exhibit 2.1: Southeast Travel Survey Program (All Modes) The survey program conducted for the study consisted of two parts: x A short interview, focusing on basic trip and traveler market characteristics, such as origin and destination, and trip purpose x A respondent-specific choice experiment section, addressing more detailed stated preferences questions of a respondent mode choices under a series of future situations comparing the survey mode to other modes, considering changes in the travel time, cost and service frequencies of these modes Exhibit 2.2 through 2.4 provides a sample of short interview questions included in the auto, air and rail surveys. 7 Southeast High Speed Rail Ridership September 2013 Exhibit