VU Research Portal Pathways to Peace - Pathways to Conflict Bretthauer, J.M. 2014 document version Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication in VU Research Portal citation for published version (APA) Bretthauer, J. M. (2014). Pathways to Peace - Pathways to Conflict: A Qualitative Comparative Analysis of Social, Economic and Political Conditions in Situations of Resource Scarcity. VU University Amsterdam. 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Oct. 2021 PATHWAYS TO PEACE – PATHWAYS TO CONFLICT A QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN SITUATIONS OF RESOURCE SCARCITY Reading committee prof. dr. H. Buhaug prof. dr. A. J. Dietz prof. dr. C. Q. Schneider dr. M. Spierenburg prof. Dr. C. Van Kersbergen Judith M. Bretthauer, 2014 ISBN 978-94-6203-626-0 All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by law no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written consent of the proprietor. Cover design and photography by Judith M. Bretthauer Printed by CPI – Wöhrmann Printservices B.V. VRIJE UNIVERSITEIT PATHWAYS TO PEACE – PATHWAYS TO CONFLICT A QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN SITUATIONS OF RESOURCE SCARCITY ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad Doctor aan de Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, op gezag van de rector magnificus prof.dr. F.A. van der Duyn Schouten, in het openbaar te verdedigen ten overstaan van de promotiecommissie van de Faculteit der Sociale Wetenschappen op donderdag 4 september 2014 om 11.45 uur in de aula van de universiteit, De Boelelaan 1105 door Judith Magdalena Bretthauer geboren te Regensburg, Duitsland promotoren: prof.dr. H.W. Overbeek prof.dr. F.H.B. Biermann prof.dr. B. Vis Acknowledgements v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS After four years of working on a PhD, there are many, many people who have earned my gratitude: My supervisors: Kees van Kersbergen for believing in the project in its early stages, Henk Overbeek for being the only one of my supervisors to see the project through from beginning to end, for reading all the drafts and for supporting me in finding my own way to do research, Frank Biermann for his helpful comments and encouragement and Barbara Vis for her hands- on advice on anything from methods to sentence structure. Leonie Heres for all the encouragement and commiseration and over many, many cups of coffee. How I miss them! Julie Birkholz for her friendship and her advice on living in Amsterdam. Julie, Rad and Caius for making our neighbourhood a friendlier place and Amanda , Jon and Aletta for the BBQs in their backyard. We really miss having you around! My colleagues at VU Department for Political Science and Public Administration for all their encouragement, practical help (from “how to fix the printer” to “how to run the analysis”), willingness to read drafts and helpful comments. The PhDs of the Political Science Department for sharing their experiences of doing a PhD and for all the fun PhD dinners. Special thanks to Falk and Michal for many interesting (and distracting) conversations; my roommates, Gijs, Jerome and Ma Yuan, for making the solitary process of writing more bearable; Nana for all her advice and for sharing her experiences on combining a PhD and motherhood; Annemarie for encouraging me to speak Dutch and Trineke for helping out with the Dutch summary of this dissertation. The PhDs of the VU Faculty of Social Sciences and the PhDs at the NIG courses for many enjoyable discussions inside and outside of classrooms. The colleagues at the UvA/VU RISC group for their detailed and helpful comments on my papers and all the colleagues I met over the years at various conferences asking insightful questions or making helpful suggestions. My parents who have believed in my ability to write this thesis with a conviction I never had and my sisters and my brother who sometimes had their own way of showing their belief in my abilities (“I have to hand in my sociology term paper tomorrow! Can you fix it?”). Gunnar for reading my work, having so many intelligent things to say about it and saying them in such a kind way, enduring my emotional reactions to his feedback and then agreeing to read yet another chapter. Also for his love, friendship and unwavering enthusiasm for political discussions. My thesis baby Amrei, who was born 1.5 years into the process, for reminding me every day that some things are more important than research. CONTENT Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ v Tables in the Main Text ......................................................................................................... ix Tables in the Appendix ........................................................................................................... x Figures.................................................................................................................................. xiii Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................... 1 Climate Wars in the Public Debate ......................................................................................... 1 Climate and its Influences on Human Development from a Historic Perspective ................. 3 Climate Change in the Anthropocene .................................................................................... 4 Resource Scarcity as Result of Climate Change ...................................................................... 5 The Academic Puzzle and its Solutions in a Nutshell ............................................................. 6 The Role of the Level of Development ................................................................................... 8 Structure of the Dissertation .................................................................................................. 9 Chapter 2: Climate Change, Resource Scarcity and Armed Conflict: Theoretical Links and Empirical Evidence.......................................................................................................... 11 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 11 Security and the Environment .............................................................................................. 11 Climate Change and Armed Conflict .................................................................................... 12 Resource Scarcity and Armed Conflict ................................................................................. 16 Empirical Evidence on the Links Between Resource Scarcity and Violent Conflict .............. 28 Economic, Political and Social Conditions in Resource-Scarce Countries ............................ 34 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 41 Chapter 3: Research Design ............................................................................................ 42 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 42 Configurational Comparative Methods ................................................................................ 42 Selection of Conditions ......................................................................................................... 52 Selection of Cases ................................................................................................................. 57 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 76 Chapter 4: Economic Explanations: Development, Dependence and Diversification ......... 77 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 77 C o n t e n t v i i Economic Conditions in Linking Resource Scarcity and Armed Conflict .............................. 77 Operationalisation and Calibration of Conditions ................................................................ 84 Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 89 Discussion ..........................................................................................................................