Early Warning Bulletin Covers the period of April 16-30, 2015 EWRThe 6th round Directorate, of PSNP has been DRMFSS, 88% completed MoA and was dispatched in Somalia www.alone. Thedppc.gov.et 7th round of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone. CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR BELG 2015 Based on the global, regional and local pre-seasonal indicators as well as their dynamical/statistical predictions, the following conclusions can be drawn Late onset and near normal cessation of Belg season Positive SST over the Mediterranean Sea This condition may generate interactive weather activities mainly over the Rift Valley and adjoining Regions Anomalous cold SST conditions are predicted both over southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans Belg season is less likely to be within the wetter side as southerly moisture flow will be limited to the Equatorial and southern Hemisphere of East Africa Near normal rain performance is therefore predicted along the major portions of Rift Valley and the adjoining escarpments, and south/southeast Ethiopia Due to the nature of Belg Season and negative influences from the aforementioned regional systems, dry spells may be more pronounced than the wet spells In general, the seasonal rain predicted for much of the Belg growing areas of the country will be close to normal with a possibility of Source:-NMA below normal rainfall anomalies at some places. Weather outlook and its possible impact for the next fifteen days (16 – 30 April 2015) As per the long term normal condition the Belg rain producing systems strengthen towards the second half of the month of April and as a result widespread rain is a normal feature of most Belg benefiting areas. Consequently at this time of the year southwestern, southern, southeastern western central and eastern parts of the country will have rain with a chance of heavy falls over isolated localities. In accordance with the National Meteorological Agency weather forecast (11 – 20 April, 2015) relatively the Belg rain producing systems will get more strength over the southern half of the country as compared to that of the previous first decade of April. Therefore better and widespread rainfall is anticipated over southern half, central and the adjoining Rift Valley areas of Belg benefiting areas of the country. Generally during the upcoming second half of April (16 – 30 April 2015) normal with a chance of above normal rainfall at places is expected over Gambela, most parts of Oromiya, SNNPR and Somali, thereby heavy fall is likely at Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoA Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected] [2] some places of the above mentioned areas. Furthermore near normal rainfall is anticipated over eastern Amhara and Tigrai including adjoining areas of Afar. This situation would have positive impact on the remaining Belg season’s agricultural activities particularly for long cycle crops like sorghum and maize in areas where their sowing activity is in progress. Therefore the ongoing land preparation and sowing activities of long cycle crops should be strengthen in appropriate manner in Belg benefiting areas of the country. In addition to this the anticipated near normal to normal rainfall over pastoral areas would favor the availability of pasture and drinking water in the areas. Thus, the concerned personnel should undertake appropriate measures in order to exploit the expected good opportunity. Areas needing attention based on the weekly Regional Situation Report Food Shortage has been reported from Arsi zone namely: (Zway Dugda, Seru Gololcha, Bele and Lode Hitosa) of Oromia region as the result of belg rain failure, and reduction of meher production of 2014. Shortage of Pasture and Drinking Water With the exception of some improvement in some areas the shortage of pasture and drinking water is remaining the same in most cases as reported in the previous Fortnight Bulletin 1 – 15 April, 2015. The availability of pasture and drinking water is not sufficient over nine Woredas of Arsi zone namely: Ziway Dugda, Merti, Jeju, Seru, Guna, Gololcha, Dodota, Shirka and Robe; East Haragie (Kumbi, Midaga Tola, Babile, Gursum, Meyu and Chinhacsen); West Hararge (Burka Dimtu and lowlands of Meiso); lowlands of Bale; East Shewa (Adami Tulu, Adama and Fentale) and West Arsi Zone (the whole Woreda) of Oromia region, Gurage Zone (Gumer, Endegagne, Eiza, Gedebano, Mareko and Gutazer), Silte Zone (Lanfaro, Sankura and Dalocha), Sidama Zone (Loka Abaya) and Wolayita Zone (the whole Woreda) of SNNPR, North Shewa (Minjar Woreda) while shortage of pasture and drinking water over Oromiya Zone, South Wollo(Legambo and Mekdela), Wage Hemra (Sahala, Sekota and Ziquala) and North Gonder(Belesa and Tuatuar) of Amhara region , Warder Zone (Boh and Geladi) Afder Zone and Kebri Dehar Zone (Shilabo and Debowoyin) of Somali region, and Zone 2 (Erebti and Megala), Zone 4 (Yalo, Gulina and Teru and Zone 3 (Dulecha, Awash and Gewane) of Afar region. As a result livestock migration in search of pasture and drinking water was reported from some woredas of Arsi and East Harargie zones and from zone 2, 4, and 3 of Oromia and Afar regions respectively. More over ther is still water rationing in some areas of Mareko (7 Kebeles) of SNNPR and Livestock feed distribution is going on by the concerned administrative body in some Kebeles of Diredawa administration. How ever an improvement of Belg season rainfall is reported from belg growing woredas of Amhara and improvement of pasture and drinking water in some areas like South Omo of SNNPR Livestock Body Condition Livestock body condition is deteriorating in Arsi Zone (over the above mentioned 9 Woredas), North Shewa, East Harargie, West Harargie, West Arsi and East Shewa and Borena Zone of Oromia region due to the persisted water shortage during the previous dekades over the areas. Livestock Disease Disease outbreak has been reported in some areas, about 216 animas died due to the outbreak of Anthrax in Konso (9Kebeles). Moreover about 114 cattle died due to the same disease in Bena Tsmai (Anchote and Gisma) and control measures are carried out by the concerned regional bureau. In addition CCPP outbreak has been reported on sheep and goats from Borena Zone of Oromia region and control measures are carried out by the concerned regional bureau. Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoA Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia email: [email protected] [3] Relief Response Dispatch of the 1st round 2015 is on-going at 56% while the distribution is at 16%.Dispatch of 1st round (January) and 2nd round (February) 2015 PSNP food is 98 % and 96% respectively, the dispatch for the 3rd round (March) is 54% and 61% for the 4th round (April). NDVI Picture According to the above NDIV picture (1 – 10 April 2015 METEOSAT) there is an improvement in vegetation cover over some areas as compared to that of the previous dekade due to the observed better rainfall condition during the preceding two dekade. As a result normal to above normal vegetation greenness has been observed in some areas of southern parts of South Omo and Bench Maji zones in case of SNNPR, southern parts of Borena, parts of Guji and Bale Zones in case of Oromiya including most parts of Liben, some parts of Afder and Gode zones in case of Somali Region during the first dekade of April 2015. On the other hand some areas are still under below normal vegetation condition as compared to that of the long term average vegetation condition as indicated in the above NDVI picture. Early Warning and Response Directorate, DRMFSS, MoA Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia email: [email protected] .