Trump and the caravan How to protect Brazil’s democracy The case against gender self-ID Drone deliveries take o OCTOBER 27TH–NOVEMBER 2ND 201 Aussie rules What Australia can teach the world Leader h p Over-Empha zed Collabora on Key Bu n Every h ng Cul ure never Bu l People Ac n he r Own elf n ere Contents The Economist October 27th 2018 5 The world this week United States 7 A round-up of political 25 Poverty in the Golden State and business news 27 Gavin Newsom’s plans 27 A farewell to arms control Leaders 28 Obamacare heads west 11 Australia The wonder down under 30 A moderate in Maryland 30 Getting out the Amish vote 12 Immigration Caravan of guff 32 Lexington Trump’s not-bad foreign record 12 Brazil’s elections Containing Jair Bolsonaro The Americas 14 Transgender rights Who decides? 34 Bolsonaro and the perversion of liberalism On the cover 16 Welfare Credit comes later 36 The Hondurans are The stellar performance of the coming! Australian economy holds Letters encouraging lessons for the rest of the world: leader, 18 On veganism, Turkey, the page 11, and special report gig economy, Hong Kong, Asia after page 44 AIG, uptalk 37 Afghanistan’s election • Trump and the caravan Briefing 38 India, Pakistan, cricket America’s president is wrong 20 Transgender identity and contracts about Central American The body of law migrants. The Democrats are 38 Malaysia’s tense new incoherent, page 12. The large 21 How rights compete government group of would-be migrants A Brazilian in Canada 39 Millennials in Indonesia gives Mr Trump something to 40 Banyan Japan warms to talk about before mid-term Special report: Australia China elections, page 36 After page 44 • How to protect Brazil’s China democracy Jair Bolsonaro, 41 Unhappy veterans Brazil’s probable next president, 42 The politics of men in has authoritarian instincts that make-up must be contained, page 12. Chaguan He is reviving Latin America’s 44 The tightening unholy marriage between grip on Hong Kong market economics and political authoritarianism, page 34 Middle East and Africa • The case against gender self-identification Often cited 45 The defiant Saudi prince as a matter of trans people’s civil 46 Bats on the border rights, it is more problematic 46 Privatisation in Egypt than many advocates realise, 47 Mozambique’s economy page 14. Campaigners say that Schumpeter Like only individuals can know their politicians, chief 47 Famine in the Sahel gender. Others want the state to executives now live in 48 Why Africans like Trump have a role, page 20 terror of public blunders, page 64 • Drone deliveries take of From the Arctic to the equator, delivering goods by drone no longer seems as fanciful as once it did, page 74 1 Contents continues overleaf 6 Contents The Economist October 27th 2018 Europe Finance and economics 49 Italy’s budget row 67 Asia and the trade war 50 A state election in Hesse 68 China’s stockmarket 50 Poland’s local elections 69 Crude oil’s strains 51 Parisian derision 69 The global wealth gap 51 Threats to Schengen 70 Energy efficiency 52 Turkey’s Saturday Mothers 70 Ethical investing 53 Charlemagne Brussels v 71 Buttonwood The agony Rome of investors 72 Free exchange Mergers Britain and labour 54 Universal credit 55 Brexit and Moldova Science and technology 56 Bagehot: Brexiteers rage 74 Drone deliveries take off against reality 75 Autonomous-car ethics 76 Saving a rare giraffe 77 Psychiatric diagnosis International 57 Too many tourists 58 Excrement on Mount Books and arts Everest 78 How Newt Gingrich made Donald Trump 79 Italy’s Holocaust 80 Nietzsche’s philosophy 80 New gothic fiction Business 81 Akram Khan’s last 59 Amazon’s business solo dance 60 Bartleby Executive matchmaking Economic and financial indicators 61 Shipping emissions 84 Statistics on 42 economies 61 Pigs and tech in China 62 Which MBA? Graphic detail 63 Bulletproof vehicles 85 The Chinese century is well under way 63 Teaching AI Obituary 64 Schumpeter Outspoken bosses 86 Jamal Khashoggi, the man who spoke out Subscription service For our full range of subscription ofers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Economist.com/ofers Volume 429 Number 9115 Published since September 1843 You can also subscribe by mail, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Please to take part in “a severe contest between North America intelligence, which presses forward, The Economist Subscription Center, United States....................................US $158.25 (plus tax) and an unworthy, timid ignorance obstructing P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978 Canada................................................CA $158.25 (plus tax) our progress.” Telephone: +1 800 456 6086 Latin America.......................................US $289 (plus tax) Email: [email protected] Editorial o ces in London and also: PEFC certified Amsterdam, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Latin America & Mexico This copy of The Economist Chicago, Johannesburg, Madrid, Mexico City, The Economist Subscription Center, is printed on paper sourced Moscow, Mumbai, New Delhi, New York, Paris, P.O. Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979 from sustainably managed San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Telephone: +1 636 449 5702 forests certified to PEFC Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC Email: [email protected] PEFC/29-31-58 www.pefc.org © 2018 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, N Y 10017. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing oices. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , MO. 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 The world this week Politics The Economist October 27th 2018 7 the Clintons and the Obamas, received 99.8% of the vote in ahead of a presidential election and to George Soros, a billion- the rubber-stamp parliament scheduled for February. aire philanthropist who backs (he was the only name on the progressive causes. ballot) and is the first person to Rebels in the Democratic hold both jobs since Ho Chi Republic of Congo killed at The Justice Department filed Minh in the1960s. least 15 people in an area affect- criminal charges against a ed by an outbreak of Ebola. The woman for her alleged role in a attack threatens to disrupt Russian conspiracy to “sow efforts to contain the virus. discord” in American elec- tions, including the mid- Paul Biya, who has ruled terms. The woman, based in St Cameroon since 1982, was Some 7,000 Central American Petersburg, is said to be the declared the winner of a presi- migrants travelling together accountant for a disinfor- dential election marred by towards America entered mation project backed by a violence and a low turnout in Mexico from Guatemala, pro-Putin Russian oligarch. It the country’s two English- despite an attempt by Mexican is claimed she disbursed mon- speaking regions. police to stop them. The ey for activists, advertisements “caravan” originated in the on social media and “promot- Honduran city of San Pedro ing news postings on social China’s president, Xi Jinping, Heading for a showdown Sula and grew as it progressed. networks.” opened the world’s longest The European Commission in President Donald Trump sug- sea bridge. Costing $20bn, the Brussels rejected Italy’s bud- gested, without evidence, that 55km (34-mile) Hong Kong- get. It calls for a 2.4% deficit the Democrats had a hand in The skin of its teeth Zhuhai-Macau Bridge spans this year, which, given the size organising it and that “crimi- Australia’s Liberal Party lost a the Pearl river estuary and is of Italy’s debt, is not consid- nals and unknown Middle by-election for a seat in Sydney part of a government plan to ered sustainable. The Italian Easterners” are part of the that had been held by Malcolm integrate the region’s cities government has been given group. America’s mid-term Turnbull, who was ousted as into one giant economic and three weeks to revise it, or face elections are on November 6th. prime minister by his party in transport hub. sanctions. In Rome, Matteo August. That means the go- Salvini, one of the leaders of Julian Assange, a co-founder verning coalition has lost its the populist coalition govern- of WikiLeaks, sued Ecuador, one-seat majority in Parlia- Who gave the order? ment, said he would not alter whose embassy in London has ment and will have to depend Muhammad bin Salman, the the budget. given him comfortable refuge on independent mps to survive crown prince and effective since 2012. WikiLeaks accuses any vote of no confidence. ruler of Saudi Arabia, dis- Germany warned its citizens Ecuador of blocking his com- tanced himself from the killers visiting Turkey to be cautious munications. The embassy has Afghanistan held its first of Jamal Khashoggi, after the about their social-media feeds, also told him to take better care parliamentary election in eight kingdom at last admitted that following several cases of of his cat.