8/30/2017 10:22:27 AM NO. 3 PAPER BUDGET BUDGET FISCAL OUTLOOK FISCAL ECONOMIC AND ECONOMIC WESTERN AUSTRALIA WESTERN BUDGET 2017-18 STATE ECONOMIC AND WESTERN AUSTRALIA - STATE BUDGET 2017-18 BUDGET PAPER NO. 3 FISCAL OUTLOOK 2017-18_BP3_Cover-Final.indd 1 2017-18 BUDGET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK Budget Paper No. 3 PRESENTED TO THE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ON 7 SEPTEMBER 2017 2017-18 Economic and Fiscal Outlook (Budget Paper No.3) © Government of Western Australia Excerpts from this publication may be reproduced, with appropriate acknowledgement, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968. For further information please contact: Department of Treasury Locked Bag 11 Cloisters Square WA 6850 Telephone: +61 8 6551 2777 Facsimile: +61 8 6551 2500 Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.ourstatebudget.wa.gov.au Published September 2017 Kevin J. McRae, Government Printer ISSN 1448–2630 2017-18 BUDGET ECONOMIC AND FISCAL OUTLOOK TABLE OF CONTENTS Page UNDER TREASURER’S CERTIFICATION ............................................................... i C HAPTER 1: OVERVIEW ........................................................................................ 1 Economic and Fiscal Outlook ................................................................................ 1 Feature Box: Budget Repair .................................................................................... 4 Budget Objectives ................................................................................................... 9 Sustainable Finances: Responsible Financial Management and Better Service Delivery .............................................................................................................. 9 Future Jobs and Skills: Grow and Diversify the Economy, Create Jobs and Support Skills Development ................................................................................ 10 Strong Communities: Safer Communities and Support for Families ........................ 11 Better Places: A Quality Environment with Liveable and Affordable Communities ... 12 CHAPTER 2: ECONOMIC OUTLOOK...................................................................... 15 Western Australia .................................................................................................... 15 Gross State Product .............................................................................................. 15 Global Outlook and Risks ...................................................................................... 25 Advanced Economies ........................................................................................... 25 China .................................................................................................................... 26 Other Emerging Markets ....................................................................................... 27 Global Risks ......................................................................................................... 27 Commodity Markets .............................................................................................. 28 CHAPTER 3: FISCAL OUTLOOK AND STRATEGY ................................................ 33 Fiscal Outlook ......................................................................................................... 33 General Government Sector ................................................................................. 33 Summary ............................................................................................................. 33 Operating Statement ............................................................................................ 36 Balance Sheet ..................................................................................................... 42 Cashflow Statement ............................................................................................. 43 Total Public Sector................................................................................................. 44 Summary ............................................................................................................. 44 Operating Statement ............................................................................................ 45 Capital Investment ................................................................................................. 48 Cashflow Statement ............................................................................................. 50 Net Debt ................................................................................................................ 51 Government Financial Strategy Statement............................................................. 54 Financial Targets ................................................................................................... 54 Statement of Risks .................................................................................................. 62 Forecasting Uncertainties ...................................................................................... 62 Revenue Estimates................................................................................................ 62 Spending Risks...................................................................................................... 66 CHAPTER 4: GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE .............................................. 71 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 72 Feature Box: Revenue Volatility ............................................................................... 74 Revenue Measures .................................................................................................. 77 Payroll Tax ............................................................................................................ 78 Taxes on Property ................................................................................................. 79 Taxes on Gambling................................................................................................ 79 Royalty Income ...................................................................................................... 80 Public Corporations ............................................................................................... 80 Taxation Revenue .................................................................................................... 81 Summary ............................................................................................................... 81 Detail ..................................................................................................................... 81 Commonwealth Grants ............................................................................................ 85 GST Revenue ........................................................................................................ 86 Forecast of GST Shares ........................................................................................ 88 Western Australia’s Contribution to the Australian Federation ................................ 89 Revised ABS Population Estimates ........................................................................ 89 Productivity Commission Inquiry into Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation ....................... 90 North West Shelf Grants ........................................................................................ 90 Tied Grants............................................................................................................ 91 Royalty Income ........................................................................................................ 93 Summary ............................................................................................................... 93 Iron Ore Royalty Income ........................................................................................ 94 Other Royalty Income ............................................................................................ 95 Other Revenue ......................................................................................................... 96 Sales of Goods and Services ................................................................................. 96 Interest Income ...................................................................................................... 97 Revenue from Public Corporations......................................................................... 97 Other Income ......................................................................................................... 97 CHAPTER 5: GENERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENSES ............................................ 99 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 100 Sustainable Finances: Responsible Financial Management and Better Service Delivery ............................................................................................................... 100 Feature Box: Machinery of Government Changes and Service Priority Review ......... 101 Feature Box: Sustainable Health Review ................................................................. 102 Strong Communities: Safer Communities and Support for Families ........................ 103 Feature Box: Justice Pipeline Model ........................................................................ 103 Feature Box: Target 120 .........................................................................................