a publication of the Behavioral Science & Policy Association volume 1 issue 2 2015 in this issue extending the reach of behavioral policy a publication of the Behavioral Science & Policy Association volume 2 issue 1 2015 Craig R. Fox Sim B. Sitkin Editors a publication of the behavioral science & policy association iii Copyright © 2015 Behavioral Science & Policy Association Brookings Institution ISSN 2379-4607 (print) ISSN 2379-4615 (online) ISBN 978-0-8157-2872-6 (pbk) ISBN 978-0-8157-2873-3 (epub) Behavioral Science & Policy is a publication of the Behavioral Science & Policy Association, P.O. Box 51336, Durham, NC 27717-1336, and is published twice yearly with the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036, and through the Brookings Institution Press. 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Specific written permission for other copying must be obtained from the Permissions Department, Brookings Institution Press, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036; e-mail: [email protected]. iv behavioral science & policy | december 2015 table of contents volume 2 issue 1 2015 Editors’ note v Belonging nowhere: Marginalization & radicalization risk among Muslim immigrants 1 Sarah Lyons-Padilla, Michele J. Gelfand, Hedieh Mirahmadi, Mehreen Farooq, & Marieke van Egmon New directions for policies aimed at strengthening low-income couples 13 Justin A. Lavner, Benjamin R. Karney, & Thomas N. Bradbury A personal touch in text messaging can improve microloan repayment 25 Dean Karlan, Melanie Morten, & Jonathan Zinman Beyond good intentions: Prompting people to make plans improves follow-through on important tasks 33 Todd Rogers, Katherine L. Milkman, Leslie K. John, & Michael I. Norton Improving the communication of uncertainty in climate science and intelligence analysis 43 Emily H. Ho, David V. Budescu, Mandeep K. Dhami, & David R. Mandel Moving citizens online: Using salience & message framing to motivate behavior change 57 Noah Castelo, Elizabeth Hardy, Julian House, Nina Mazar, Claire Tsai, & Min Zhao Blinding prosecutors to defendants’ race: A policy proposal to reduce unconscious bias in the criminal justice system 69 Sunita Sah, Christopher T. Robertson, & Shima B. Baughman The White House social & behavioral sciences team: Lessons learned from year one 77 William J. Congdon and Maya Shankar Editorial policy 87 a publication of the behavioral science & policy association v vi behavioral science & policy | december 2015 editors’ note elcome to the second issue of Behavioral Science & Policy (BSP). WWe are pleased to present eight articles that extend the reach of behavioral science research across a wide range of policy applications. Some articles focus on everyday individual activities such as debt repayment and paying government vehicle fees online. Others examine ambitious social policy objectives such as strengthening families and reducing bias in criminal justice systems. Still others speak to global challenges such as curtailing the recruitment of extremist militants and how to better communicate the uncertainty surrounding topics including climate science and intelligence forecasts. The initial three articles in this issue remind us that public and private sector policies are often most effective when organizations identify and address the unique needs of individuals. The first investigates an important and timely question: When are immigrants vulnerable to recruitment by ideological radicals? Lyons-Padilla, Gelfand, Mirahmadi, Farooq, and Van Egmond report a fascinating survey of immigrant Muslims in the United States. These authors found that such immigrants tend to feel marginalized if they do not identify with either their culture of origin or the society in which they live. When these marginalized immigrants then experience discrimination, they tend to be more attracted to radical groups than are immigrants who have found or retained a sense of cultural identity. Lavner, Karney, and Bradbury take on the critical question of how federal programs can most effectively promote healthy marriages among couples with low incomes. After taking stock of three large-scale field interventions, the authors suggest that a commonly used singular focus on education is unlikely to be effective. Instead, new initiatives should also address the challenging economic constraints that the couples face, which can put significant stress on relationships. Finally, Karlan, Morten, and Zinman present the findings of a study run in the Philippines—the text messaging capital of the world—that encouraged timely repayment of debts using texted reminders. Their results suggest that the personal connections in these seemingly impersonal financial transactions are of critical importance. Specifically, a personal message from a loan officer can be especially effective, but only when the borrower knows the loan officer through prior borrowing. a publication of the behavioral science & policy association vii Three additional articles explore general-purpose policy tools that promise to extend the reach of behavioral insights to new purviews. First, Rogers, Milkman, John, and Norton address the question of how to help people translate their good intentions into positive actions such as voting or getting a flu vaccine. The authors review a body of behavioral research showing that simply prompting people to explicitly articulate a concrete and specific plan can be surprisingly effective at increasing follow-through. Second, Ho, Budescu, Dhami, and Mandel address the widely relevant issue of how expert advisers in business and government should communicate the degree of uncertainty associated with a forecast or conclusion. The authors promote a research-based approach for standardizing language used in such communications, an approach they have tested with favorable results in the climate science and intelligence analysis domains. Castelo, Hardy, House, Mazar, Tsai, and Zhao present an example of a large-scale field experiment in which simple and virtually costless mailer design adjustments improved the effectiveness of a government service. In this case, increasing the salience of a key message on a mailer that encouraged payment of an annual automobile fee online, rather than in person, substantially increased online participation. The effect was most pronounced when messages emphasized potential gains from paying the fee on the Internet. In contrast to previous research findings in other contexts, similar messaging emphasizing losses was marginally less effective. The authors also share practical lessons they have learned from their ongoing government–academic collaboration. Finally, in this issue, we extend the reach of BSP by featuring two new publication categories. In the first of our Proposals articles, Sah, Robertson, and Baughman take on the important topic of risks within the criminal justice system from unconscious racial bias among prosecutors. The authors argue that, whenever possible, prosecutors should be kept unaware of the race of a suspect when they are choosing whether to file a criminal charge or accept a plea deal. In fact, such blinding is not without precedent: The U.S. Department of Justice requires review committees of capital cases to examine defendant files in a race-blind manner. Second, responding to the recent surge of interest among governments, nonprofit organizations, and businesses in applying behavioral science insights, we introduce a new Reports category for articles that summarize and synthesize major project reports. Congdon and Shankar present the first, reviewing the projects pursued and lessons learned by the U.S. Social and Behavioral Science Team (SBST) during its first year of operation. The article also explains implications of President Obama’s recent executive order directing federal agencies to work with the SBST to identify and test opportunities for applying behavioral insights to enhance the effectiveness of federal programs. viii behavioral science & policy | december 2015 Looking forward, we are excited to report that we are receiving an increasing flow of excellent submissions to BSP. In coming issues, we plan to feature Spotlight Forum article clusters that address pressing challenges (such as enhancing the effectiveness of prekindergarten education) and emerging opportunities (such as a behavioral agenda for federal policy interventions that might be facilitated by the SBST). We welcome reader suggestions on what other topics merit emphasis on the pages of BSP, and we invite you to explore our new Policyshop blog (https://behavioralpolicy. org/blog/) to stay informed about