THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY SCHREYER HONORS COLLEGE DEPARTMENT OF Asian Studies FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO THE RISE IN PROTEST IN THE HONG KONG SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGION, 1997-2017 ROBERT ZHANG LIU SPRING 2018 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for baccalaureate degrees in Biology and Asian Studies with honors in Asian Studies Reviewed and approved* by the following: Gretchen Casper Associate Professor of Political Science and Asian Studies Thesis Supervisor Jessamyn Abel Assistant Professor of Asian Studies and History Honors Adviser * Signatures are on file in the Schreyer Honors College. i ABSTRACT This paper investigates the contributing factors leading to the rise in level of protest in Hong Kong between the years of 1997 and 2017. I posited that the independent variables “grievances,” “efficacy,” and “identity” contributed to this increase. Data gathered from opinion polls suggest that “grievances” and “identity” are correlated with the increase in protest. Data gathered from South China Morning Post indicate no significant trend in “efficacy” but analysis of recent major protests in Hong Kong suggest a possibility of an increase. Qualitative analysis of all the data in relation to the variables suggests that “grievances” and “identity” did contribute to the rise in protest, and that the link between “efficacy” and the protests is inconclusive. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... iii LIST OF TABLES ....................................................................................................... iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ......................................................................................... v Chapter 1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 1 Grievances ............................................................................................................ 2 Efficacy ................................................................................................................. 3 Identity .................................................................................................................. 5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 2 Hong Kong Under the United Kingdom .................................................... 8 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 9 Hong Kong’s Acquisition by the British .............................................................. 10 Early Colonial Development ................................................................................ 12 Unrest in the Mid to Late 19th Century ................................................................. 14 The Rise of Chinese Nationalism ......................................................................... 15 Hong Kong and the Xinhai Revolution ................................................................ 19 Hong Kong and the World Wars .......................................................................... 20 Leadup to the Handover ........................................................................................ 22 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 24 Chapter 3 Hong Kong After the Handover .................................................................. 28 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 28 Tung Chee-hwa’s First Term (1996-2001) ........................................................... 29 Tung Chee-Hwa’s Second Term (2002-2005) ..................................................... 31 Donald Tsang’s First Term (2005-2007) .............................................................. 32 Donald Tsang’s Second Term (2007-2012) ......................................................... 34 Leung Chun-ying (2012-2017) ............................................................................. 35 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 39 Chapter 4 Research Design .......................................................................................... 42 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 42 Research Question ................................................................................................ 42 Independent Variables .......................................................................................... 42 Grievances ..................................................................................................... 43 Efficacy .......................................................................................................... 45 Perception of “Political opportunity” ............................................................ 45 iii Identity ........................................................................................................... 47 Dependent Variable ....................................................................................... 48 Hypotheses .................................................................................................... 48 Data Gathering and Methods ................................................................................ 50 Protest Statistics from Hong Kong Police Force ........................................... 50 Opinion Polls from University of Hong Kong .............................................. 51 South China Morning Post Article Search .................................................... 52 Analysis Methods ................................................................................................. 53 Relating Measures of the Three Independent Variables and the Dependent Variables ................................................................................................. 55 Limitations ............................................................................................................ 55 Conclusions........................................................................................................... 56 Chapter 5 Data Analysis .............................................................................................. 57 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 57 Dependent Variable: Number of Public Order Events ......................................... 57 Description .................................................................................................... 58 Hypothesis 1: Grievances ..................................................................................... 59 Description .................................................................................................... 60 Description .................................................................................................... 63 Description .................................................................................................... 67 Description .................................................................................................... 68 Summary of Hypothesis 1 Data: “Grievances” ............................................. 69 Hypothesis 2: Efficacy .......................................................................................... 69 Description .................................................................................................... 70 External Efficacy ........................................................................................... 72 Description .................................................................................................... 73 Summary of “Efficacy” Results .................................................................... 75 Hypothesis 3: Identity ........................................................................................... 76 Description .................................................................................................... 77 Summary of “Identity” Results ..................................................................... 78 Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 78 Chapter 6 Discussion and Conclusions ........................................................................ 80 Introduction ................................................................................................... 80 Grievances ............................................................................................................ 80 Livelihood Concerns and Equality ................................................................ 80 Distrust in Hong Kong and Mainland Governments ..................................... 81 Efficacy ................................................................................................................. 82 Political Opportunity ..................................................................................... 82 External Efficacy ........................................................................................... 83 “Efficacy” Summary ....................................................................................