THE ARTS This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public CHILD POLICY service of the RAND Corporation. CIVIL JUSTICE EDUCATION Jump down to document ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT 6 HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING organization providing objective analysis and effective PUBLIC SAFETY solutions that address the challenges facing the public SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and private sectors around the world. SUBSTANCE ABUSE TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY TRANSPORTATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE Support RAND WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE Purchase this document Browse Books & Publications Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore Pardee RAND Graduate School View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. This product is part of the Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS) dissertation series. PRGS dissertations are produced by graduate fellows of the Pardee RAND Graduate School, the world’s leading producer of Ph.D.’s in policy analysis. The dissertation has been supervised, reviewed, and approved by the graduate fellow’s faculty committee. Astronomical Odds A Policy Framework for the Cosmic Impact Hazard Geoffrey S. Sommer This document was submitted as a dissertation in June, 2004 in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the doctoral degree in public policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. The faculty committee that supervised and approved the dissertation consisted of Steven Popper (Chair), Steven Bankes, and Calvin Shipbaugh. The Pardee RAND Graduate School dissertation series reproduces dissertations that have been approved by the student’s dissertation committee. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2005 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2005 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street, Suite 202, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-1516 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Contents Figures.......................................................................................... vii Tables .......................................................................................... xi Acknowledgments.............................................................................. xiii Acronyms ....................................................................................... xv CHAPTER ONE Introduction ..................................................................................... 1 Purpose .......................................................................................... 1 Society and the Impact Hazard .................................................................... 2 Organization of the Dissertation .................................................................. 4 CHAPTER TWO Background ...................................................................................... 7 Historical Context ................................................................................ 7 Physical Context.................................................................................13 Geometries ...................................................................................13 Asteroids .....................................................................................15 Comets.......................................................................................20 Impact Effects ................................................................................22 Confronting the Hazard .........................................................................25 Mechanisms of Social Response ...............................................................25 Survey: Surveillance ...........................................................................26 Survey: Tracking..............................................................................30 Characterization ..............................................................................37 Mitigation....................................................................................38 Genesis of the NEO Surveys ..................................................................40 The Rise of the “Planetary Defenders” .........................................................43 Military Involvement .........................................................................44 International Involvement.....................................................................45 Discoveries ...................................................................................46 Warnings and Alarms .........................................................................50 Warning Scales ...............................................................................55 Characterization Missions .....................................................................57 Technological and Social Trends ..............................................................58 Summary of Social Response ..................................................................61 iii iv Astronomical Odds: A Policy Framework for the Cosmic Impact Hazard CHAPTER THREE Literature Review ...............................................................................63 General .........................................................................................63 Methodologies................................................................................63 Analogous Cases ..............................................................................66 Perceptions vs. Reality ........................................................................69 Specific .........................................................................................70 Impact Hazard Policy Analysis circa 1994 ......................................................70 The Evolution of Impact Hazard Policy Analysis ...............................................72 Planetary Defense and the Military Perspective .................................................73 Legal Perspectives .............................................................................74 CHAPTER FOUR Organizations and Their Policies ................................................................77 U.S. Government................................................................................77 White House .................................................................................77 U.S. Congress ................................................................................78 National Aeronautics and Space Administration ................................................78 National Research Council ....................................................................79 National Science Foundation ..................................................................80 U.S. Air Force ................................................................................80 Foreign Governments............................................................................80 United Kingdom .............................................................................80 Australia......................................................................................81 International Bodies .............................................................................81 United Nations ...............................................................................81 Council of Europe ............................................................................82 European Space Agency .......................................................................82 Professional Societies, Private Organizations and Advocacy Groups ................................83 American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics.............................................83 National Optical Astronomy Observatories ....................................................84 National Defense Industrial Association........................................................84 International Astronomical Union .............................................................84 Spaceguard Foundation .......................................................................85 Project B612 .................................................................................85 Cambridge Conference Network ..............................................................86 Summary .......................................................................................86 CHAPTER